Delta Scan: The Future of Science and Technology, 2005-2055: Growth and Further Development of Bioinformatics

Key Pages

Category:
Science and Technology

Domain:
Biology and Biotechnology, Computer Science

Keywords:
Biotechnology & genetics - bioinformatics, computer science, information technology, computational biology, biomedical informatics

Outlook:
The field of bioinformatics may grow over the next two decades, but not fast enough to meet increasing demand for bioinformatics expertise from pharmaceutical and other biochemical industries.

Summary Analysis:
As modern biology becomes increasingly reliant on computer science (partly because it generates increasing quantities of data) a distinct field of expertise has emerged at the interface between the two: bioinformatics (also called computational biology or biomedical informatics). Genomics research is responsible for much, but certainly not all, of the increased scale of information to be managed and analysed. The completion of the sequencing of the human genome in 2001 was a watershed moment for the nascent field, cementing the foundation for bioinformatics.

Major topics covered in the field include genome analysis, gene expression, data and text mining, database theory, systems biology, and structural bioinformatics. Many of these forms of research rely on knowledge of programming and computer algorithms, statistical methods, information retrieval, and simulation. In this context, using text data mining methods to search for patterns in genetic code is a form of biological research.

The field of bioinformatics has grown rapidly since the mid-1980s and during the next decade can be expected to continue on the path towards becoming a major discipline in its own right. In addition to new journals and societies appearing, distinct educational programs are being created by universities to train the first generation of professional bioinformaticians. Because of the growth of biological research, especially within the biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies that seek to find new applications or tools to speed development, the skills of bioinformaticians are in high demand. Although few systematic studies of the need have been done, it is widely believed that demand for bioinformatics skills will outstrip supply during the next 10 to 15 years.

The field is still new, and many issues remain to be resolved. Curricular debates are attempting to sort out what is essential learning for a bioinformatician. Trainees have expressed concerns about not being reduced to technicians, leading to divisions and boundaries around work that may seem too applied. Nonetheless, countries with advanced scientific research programs perceive the need to develop a competitive advantage and are reviewing their own bioinformatics training and resources.

Implications:

Incorporation of bioinformatics into biological education
Expansion and specialisation of educational and training programs, potentially expanding the relative resources of biomedical sciences further
Blurring of the boundary between biological research and computer science
Competition by academic research centers and industry for bioinformatics skills
Trend toward high-status workers seeking to distinguish themselves from industrial and low-prestige workers

Early Indicators:

Launching of the journal Bioinformatics in April 1985
Establishment in 1988 of the US National Center for Biotechnology Information, as part of the National Library of Medicine and the National Institutes of Health, to maintain biomedical databases
Formation in 1997 of the International Society for Computational Biology and growth to roughly 2000 members as of August 2004
Issuance in 1999 by the Biomedical Information Science and Technology Initiative (BITSI) of the US National Institutes of Health of a report stating that computer science is essential to the mission of NIH
Completion in 2001 of a working draft of the human genome
Establishment of degree programs in bioinformatics at universities worldwide beginning in the late 1990s

What to Watch:

Bioinformatics is offered as a major at all research universities by 2020.
Bioinformatics technicians outnumber bioinformatics researchers by 2015.

Parallels/Precedents:

Professionalisation of library science with the advent of computers

Enablers/drivers:

Growth of interest in genomics research and other data-intensive research by universities and industry
National investment in research and educational programs fueled by competitive pressures to be at the leading edge of scientific research
Forces of routinisation and specialisation, producing a division of labor within the new pool of persons trained in bioinformatics

Leaders:
Regions:

US, UK, Germany, Australia, China

Institutions:

Unilever-Cambridge Centre for Molecular Science Informatics [link]
US National Institutes of Health
Stanford University
European Molecular Biology Network (EMBNet) [link]
European Bioinformatics Institute [link]
Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute [link]
Cambridge Computational Biology Institute [link]
UK e-Science Data Mining Special Interest Group [link]
Beijing Genomics Institute [link]
Centre of Bioinformatics, Beijing [link]
Australian National Genomics Information Service (ANGIS), University of Sydney [link]
University of Tubingen, Germany [link]

Figures:

Sources:

Altman, Russ B. 1998. A curriculum for bioinformatics: The time is ripe. Bioinformatics 14, no. 7: 549-50.
BISTI. June 1999. "The Biomedical Information Science and Technology Initiative," Bethesda, MD: National Institutes of Health. [link]
Brass, A. 2000. Bioinformatics education -- A UK perspective. Bioinformatics 16, no. 2: 77-8.
"Canadian Genetic Diseases Network" July 25, 2002. Bioinformatics curriculum recommendations for undergraduate, graduate and, professional programs.
Cattley, S. 2004. A review of bioinformatics degrees in Australia. Brief Bioinform 5, no. 4: 350-4.
Friedman, C. P., R. B. Altman, I. S. Kohane, K. A. McCormick, P. L. Miller, J. G. Ozbolt, E. H. Shortliffe, G. D. Stormo, M. C. Szczepaniak, D. Tuck, and J. Williamson. 2004. Training the next generation of informaticians: The impact of 'Bisti' and bioinformatics -- A report from the American College of Medical Informatics. J Am Med Inform Assoc 11, no. 3: 167-72.
"International Society for Computational Biology" International Society for Computational Biology [link]
Littlejohn, T. 2000. Bioinformatics in Australia. Bioinformatics 16, no. 10: 849-50 [link]
Luo, J. 2002. Bioinformatics service, education and research: The Embnet and Cbi. European Molecular Biology Network Centre of Bioinformatics. Silico Biol 2, no. 3: 173-7.
Pevzner, P. A. 2004. Educating biologists in the 21st century: Bioinformatics scientists versus bioinformatics technicians. Bioinformatics 20, no. 14: 2159-61.
Schomburg, D., and M. Vingron. 2002. Bioinformatics research and education in Germany. Silico Biol 2, no. 3: 169-71.
Braden Greer and Javed Khan "Diagnostic Classification of Cancer using DNA MIcroarrays and Artificial Intelligence." Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 1020: 49–66 (2004)
"Huge protein-interaction database could save lives." New Scientist. February 24 2006. http://www.newscientist.com/channel/health/dn8773.html

At A Glance:
When:
3–10 years

Where:
Global

How Fast:
Years

Likelihood:
High

Impact:
Medium

Controversy:
Low

Related Outlooks:

About this outlook: An outlook is an internally consistent, plausible view of the future based on the best expertise available. It is not a prediction of the future. The AT-A-GLANCE ratings suggest the scope, scale, and uncertainty associated with this outlook. Each outlook is also a working document, with contributors adding comments and edits to improve the forecast over time. Please see the revision history for earlier versions.

Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Biology and Biotechnology, Computer Science
Keywords:	Biotechnology & genetics - bioinformatics, computer science, information technology, computational biology, biomedical informatics
Outlook:	The field of bioinformatics may grow over the next two decades, but not fast enough to meet increasing demand for bioinformatics expertise from pharmaceutical and other biochemical industries.
Summary Analysis:	As modern biology becomes increasingly reliant on computer science (partly because it generates increasing quantities of data) a distinct field of expertise has emerged at the interface between the two: bioinformatics (also called computational biology or biomedical informatics). Genomics research is responsible for much, but certainly not all, of the increased scale of information to be managed and analysed. The completion of the sequencing of the human genome in 2001 was a watershed moment for the nascent field, cementing the foundation for bioinformatics. Major topics covered in the field include genome analysis, gene expression, data and text mining, database theory, systems biology, and structural bioinformatics. Many of these forms of research rely on knowledge of programming and computer algorithms, statistical methods, information retrieval, and simulation. In this context, using text data mining methods to search for patterns in genetic code is a form of biological research. The field of bioinformatics has grown rapidly since the mid-1980s and during the next decade can be expected to continue on the path towards becoming a major discipline in its own right. In addition to new journals and societies appearing, distinct educational programs are being created by universities to train the first generation of professional bioinformaticians. Because of the growth of biological research, especially within the biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies that seek to find new applications or tools to speed development, the skills of bioinformaticians are in high demand. Although few systematic studies of the need have been done, it is widely believed that demand for bioinformatics skills will outstrip supply during the next 10 to 15 years. The field is still new, and many issues remain to be resolved. Curricular debates are attempting to sort out what is essential learning for a bioinformatician. Trainees have expressed concerns about not being reduced to technicians, leading to divisions and boundaries around work that may seem too applied. Nonetheless, countries with advanced scientific research programs perceive the need to develop a competitive advantage and are reviewing their own bioinformatics training and resources.

	Implications:	Incorporation of bioinformatics into biological education Expansion and specialisation of educational and training programs, potentially expanding the relative resources of biomedical sciences further Blurring of the boundary between biological research and computer science Competition by academic research centers and industry for bioinformatics skills Trend toward high-status workers seeking to distinguish themselves from industrial and low-prestige workers
	Early Indicators:	Launching of the journal Bioinformatics in April 1985 Establishment in 1988 of the US National Center for Biotechnology Information, as part of the National Library of Medicine and the National Institutes of Health, to maintain biomedical databases Formation in 1997 of the International Society for Computational Biology and growth to roughly 2000 members as of August 2004 Issuance in 1999 by the Biomedical Information Science and Technology Initiative (BITSI) of the US National Institutes of Health of a report stating that computer science is essential to the mission of NIH Completion in 2001 of a working draft of the human genome Establishment of degree programs in bioinformatics at universities worldwide beginning in the late 1990s
	What to Watch:	Bioinformatics is offered as a major at all research universities by 2020. Bioinformatics technicians outnumber bioinformatics researchers by 2015.
	Parallels/Precedents:	Professionalisation of library science with the advent of computers
	Enablers/drivers:	Growth of interest in genomics research and other data-intensive research by universities and industry National investment in research and educational programs fueled by competitive pressures to be at the leading edge of scientific research Forces of routinisation and specialisation, producing a division of labor within the new pool of persons trained in bioinformatics
	Leaders:	Regions: US, UK, Germany, Australia, China Institutions: Unilever-Cambridge Centre for Molecular Science Informatics [link] US National Institutes of Health Stanford University European Molecular Biology Network (EMBNet) [link] European Bioinformatics Institute [link] Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute [link] Cambridge Computational Biology Institute [link] UK e-Science Data Mining Special Interest Group [link] Beijing Genomics Institute [link] Centre of Bioinformatics, Beijing [link] Australian National Genomics Information Service (ANGIS), University of Sydney [link] University of Tubingen, Germany [link]
	Figures:
	Sources:	Altman, Russ B. 1998. A curriculum for bioinformatics: The time is ripe. Bioinformatics 14, no. 7: 549-50. BISTI. June 1999. "The Biomedical Information Science and Technology Initiative," Bethesda, MD: National Institutes of Health. [link] Brass, A. 2000. Bioinformatics education -- A UK perspective. Bioinformatics 16, no. 2: 77-8. "Canadian Genetic Diseases Network" July 25, 2002. Bioinformatics curriculum recommendations for undergraduate, graduate and, professional programs. Cattley, S. 2004. A review of bioinformatics degrees in Australia. Brief Bioinform 5, no. 4: 350-4. Friedman, C. P., R. B. Altman, I. S. Kohane, K. A. McCormick, P. L. Miller, J. G. Ozbolt, E. H. Shortliffe, G. D. Stormo, M. C. Szczepaniak, D. Tuck, and J. Williamson. 2004. Training the next generation of informaticians: The impact of 'Bisti' and bioinformatics -- A report from the American College of Medical Informatics. J Am Med Inform Assoc 11, no. 3: 167-72. "International Society for Computational Biology" International Society for Computational Biology [link] Littlejohn, T. 2000. Bioinformatics in Australia. Bioinformatics 16, no. 10: 849-50 [link] Luo, J. 2002. Bioinformatics service, education and research: The Embnet and Cbi. European Molecular Biology Network Centre of Bioinformatics. Silico Biol 2, no. 3: 173-7. Pevzner, P. A. 2004. Educating biologists in the 21st century: Bioinformatics scientists versus bioinformatics technicians. Bioinformatics 20, no. 14: 2159-61. Schomburg, D., and M. Vingron. 2002. Bioinformatics research and education in Germany. Silico Biol 2, no. 3: 169-71. Braden Greer and Javed Khan "Diagnostic Classification of Cancer using DNA MIcroarrays and Artificial Intelligence." Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 1020: 49–66 (2004) "Huge protein-interaction database could save lives." New Scientist. February 24 2006. http://www.newscientist.com/channel/health/dn8773.html

At A Glance:	When:	3–10 years
	Where:	Global
	How Fast:	Years
	Likelihood:	High
	Impact:	Medium
	Controversy:	Low