Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Computer Science, Economics
Keywords:	Infrastructure - automated vehicles, automated highway system (AHS), transportation, control systems, platooning
Outlook:	As metropolitan roadways become more congested and growth of road capacity is curtailed by lack of suitable land and by NIMBYism, automated highway systems may be employed to increase capacity and safety.
Summary Analysis:	The US Department of Transportation successfully demonstrated automated driving technology along San Diego's I-15 in 1997. Automated Highway Systems (AHS) employ information technology in both vehicles and roadways to increase traffic flow by making it more uniform and more efficient; the automated highway system controls the vehicle’s steering, braking, and throttling. In the US, AHS is considered one of very few options for increasing roadway capacity in dense metropolitan areas that is both technologically and politically feasible. The future of automated highways may differ significantly from the visions of the 1990s. In the US, automated highways are more likely to be realised through the introduction of automated driving technologies by vehicle manufacturers than through expensive infrastructure modifications funded by government. In Europe, where there is already investment in road pricing and surveillance technology, AHS infrastructure has a better chance of being funded by governments. While there may be considerable driver resistance to external control systems and platooning, automated highway systems that do not require extensive upgrades to the roadway infrastructure may be deployed in niche operations. For example, considerable improvements in safety and productivity may be realized in mass transit (buses) and trucking through the deployment of AHS in the next 20 years. SWARM technology, in which personal public transport vehicles operate as part of a more extensive integrated intermodal transport system, may also have a role and offer commercial opportunities. This reacts in a dynamic way to carry people to their destination, as their Intelligent Personal Support systems inform the central system of the origin and destination of all who are moving. In the interim, electronic road pricing systems such as those used in Norway, London and Singapore will serve to familiarise the public with roadway management systems and curb peak demand in the most highly congested urban roadways.

	Implications:	Improved safety More predictable travel times Greater roadway capacity and reduced traffic congestion More attractive public transportation Conservation of fuel and reduction in emissions
	Early Indicators:	Deployment of driverless shuttle buses in the Netherlands Demonstration of AHS by the US Department of Transportation in San Diego in August 1997 Honda's development of two prototype 'AHS Accords' Toyota's development of two concept automated vehicles based on the Toyota Avalon Buick's development of the XP2000 concept car, which includes a conceptual guidance system that would allow the car to travel at high speed locked on sensors buried in the road Consideration of AHS in Houston Metro's long-range transportation plan
	What to Watch:	The first new luxury automobile model with automated highway driving capabilities is introduced.
	Parallels/Precedents:	Development of autopilot navigation in aircraft and free-flight systems Electronic road pricing in Norway, London and Singapore
	Enablers/drivers:	Growing roadway congestion Higher per capita automobile ownership/use Rising fuel prices Further development of embedded AI in vehicles Growing demand for better roadway safety
	Leaders:	Regions: US (California), Netherlands (driverless shuttle buses [link]), Japan Institutions: US Department of Transportation (DEMO '97 demonstrations in San Diego [link]) Metropolitan Transit Authority of Harris County, Texas (Houston Metro -- stated intention to be among the international leaders in the use of advanced technology to improve transportation) Carnegie-Mellon University University of California Partners for Advanced Transit and Highways (PATH) Program Ohio State University Transportation Research Center University of Southampton, Intelligent Transport Systems [link] University of Bristol, Advanced Transport Group [link] Inria (France) [link] Transport Research Laboratory (UK) [link] EU Netmobil project [link]
	Figures:
	Sources:	"Demo '97: Proving AHS Works." United States Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration. [link] R Bishop. 2001. "What ever happened to automated highway systems?" Traffic Technology International. [link] S Ashey. 1998. "Smart cars and automated highways." Mechanical Engineering Magazine. [link] UK Foresight Project on Intelligent Infrastructure Systems. "Trends and Drivers in Intelligent Infrastructure Systems". [link] Tjere Tretvik, Urban Road Pricing In Norway: Public Acceptability and Travel Behaviour, MC ICAM Conference 2002 [link] Carlton Roberts-Jones (Institution of Highways and Transportation), Possible Long-Term Futures for Private and Passenger Transport, 2001 [link] Shladover, S.E., Automated vehicles for highway operations (automated highway systems), Proceedings of the I MECH E Part I Journal of Systems & Control Engineering, Number I1, February 2005, pp. 53-75(23) [link] Michel Parent and Min Yang, Road Map towards Full Driving Automation, Inria 2003 [link] Kelber, C.R et al, Cell-phone guided vehicle, an application based on a drive-by-wire automated system, Intelligent Vehicles Symposium, 2003. IEEE Proceedings, 9-11 June 2003, 645- 649 [link]

	At A Glance:	When:	11–20 years
		Where:	Global
		How Fast:	Years
		Likelihood:	Medium
		Impact:	Low
		Controversy:	High

Related Outlooks:

Posted at Dec 20/2006 10:20AM:
Giorgio Gaviraghi eDL exponential design lab Our design organization is developing a n integrated transportation system, denominated TransNet that includes all systems (road and rail private and public vehicles for pax and cargo, pipelines, utilities, parcel transporation system, others) in a single network, above ground connected to terminals where needed by origin and destination analysis. Such system will generate the needed energy for its utilization by non polluting renewable resources, (solar, wind, temperature change others) eliminating the need of big centralised power stations as well as gas and other polluting fuels. the "road" will supply the needed "fuel" for all transportation requirements. Such system is currently being designed as a city planning requirement in the eDL organization.