Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Materials, Chemistry
Keywords:	Materials - chemistry, polymers, plastics, electronics, semiconductors
Outlook:	The unique properties of conductive polymers are likely to find application in a wide variety of electronic devices within the next couple of decades.
Summary Analysis:	Plastics have traditionally been used as insulators, for instance as the casing around copper wire, because they conduct electricity so poorly. In the 1970s, however, researchers demonstrated that polymers doped with certain compounds could actually function as conductors of electricity. Because of plastic's flexibility, low cost, and light weight, the possibility of fashioning transistors from it to create plastic electronics holds great commercial interest. The use of ink-jet technology to print plastic transistors onto a range of materials has been demonstrated and is a major driver of the research into conductive polymers because of the benefits plastic offers over traditional silicon transistors. Organic semiconductors are unlikely to ever achieve the switching speeds possible with silicon-based semiconductors, so plastic chips are unlikely to replace silicon ones in personal computers in the near future. Their use in display devices, however, has shown great promise, and the first commercial applications of conductive polymers are already on the market in displays for digital cameras and electric razors. Over the coming decade, an increasing number of display screens on common products are likely to incorporate organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs). Such screens will be less expensive and more energy-efficient than existing LED display technology, which may be superseded altogether by OLEDs. Large displays that are just a few millimetres thick are already in development. The next generation of products using conductive polymers are likely to be bendable displays and electronics – specifically electronic paper and wearable electronics – are likely to reach the market in large numbers in the next five years. Electronic paper has already been field tested in rigid displays that update sale prices at department stores. A commercial prototype for a flexible version has been produced by Polymer Vision in conjunction with E Ink. Joseph Jacobson of MIT’s Media Laboratory and E Ink envisions 'the last book', which could contain the contents of the Library of Congress in something the size of a binder. Cheap plastic chips may also reduce the cost of radio-frequency identification tags (RFIDs) and so increase the number of applications of RFID technology. Another application of conductive polymers already in development is electromagnetic shielding, which could be used for antistatic protection and cloaking from radar. Static is estimated to cause $15 billion in damage annually to electronic devices. The ability to incorporate conductive polymers into everyday materials such as textiles opens up the possibility of new kinds of chemical sensors and new forms of monitoring. Clothing that could change its properties as the temperature changes is one possibility. Electronic skins that respond to pressure have been imagined for robotic hands. Conductive polymers might also provide the basis for better rechargeable batteries. Given the ubiquity of plastics and semiconductors in modern life, in the future many computing and other electronic devices will make use of the unique properties of conductive polymers.

	Implications:	Incorporation of inexpensive plastic transistors into everyday objects, clothing, and even disposable items Increasing design and manufacture of portable items with display screens and electronic identification tags
	Early Indicators:	Awarding of the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2000 to Alan J. Heeger, Alan G. MacDiarmid, and Hideki Shirakawa for pioneering research into conductive polymers Publication in December 2000 of a paper by Henning Sirringhaus of Cambridge University in Science demonstrating the ability to use ink-jet technology to print high-resolution organic transistors just 5 mm apart Introduction in 2002 by Kodak and Sanyo of a small, rigid OLED display for use in digital cameras and cell phones Joining of forces by major manufacturers such as Dow, Motorola, and Xerox, and DuPont and Lucent Technologies, to develop new polymer inks and printing methods Revelation in 2003 by Plastic Logic at the Society for Information Display Conference of the first plastic-electronics ink-jet-printed active-matrix display Publication in 2004 by Vitaly Podzorov at Rutgers University and colleagues at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign of results showing that a year-long effort to remove impurities produced an organic semiconductor with 200-fold increase in speed
	What to Watch:	Plastic chips replace silicon chips in inexpensive appliances. OLEDs supplant LEDs. The global market for organic display devices grows from around $219 million to around $3 billion in the next 5 to 10 years.
	Parallels/Precedents:	The race to make smaller and faster silicon transistors
	Enablers/drivers:	Competition between the LED and OLED technologies to drive down the price of OLEDs so manufacturers will make the switch Continuing discovery of new polymers with conductive properties to give engineers more of a selection Development of organic or hybrid chips with greater stability in reponse to environmental stresses -- temperature and humidity Development of new production techniques, especially advances ink-jet printing of circuits
	Leaders:	Regions: Japan, US, UK, France Institutions: Northwestern University University of California Xerox Palo Alto Research Center (PARC) Universal Display Corporation Lucent Technologies Polymer Vision (division of Royal Philips Electronics) E Ink (electronic paper) Plastic Logic University of Bristol [link] University of Reading [link] University of Cambridge, Optoelectronics Group [link] University of Wollongong, Intelligent Polymer Research Institute [link] Waseda University, Japan [link] Bulgarian Academy of Sciences [link]
	Figures:
	Sources:	Ball, Philip. "Designing the Molecular World." Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press (1994). Ditlea, Steve. "The Electronic Paper Chase." Scientific American v285, no. 5 (2001): 50-55. Yam, Philip. "Plastics Get Wired." Scientific American v273, no. 1 (1995): 90-96. Goho, Alexandra. "Plastic Chips: New Materials Boost Organic Electronics" Science News 164, no. 9 (2003): 133. Gorman, Jessica. "Plastic Electric: Lining up the Future of Conducting Polymers" Science News 163, no. 20 (2003): 312. Collins, Graham P. "Next Stretch for Plastic Electronics" Scientific American 291, no. 2 (2004): 74-81. Weiss, Peter. "Electronic Skin Senses Touch" Science News 165, no. 3 (2004): 45. Weiss, Peter. "Inside Plastic Transistors: Crystal-clear Window Opens on Hidden Flows" Science News 166, no. 4 (2004): 51. Howard, Webster E. "Better Displays with Organic Films." Scientific American v290, no. 2 (2004): 76-81. "The Nobel Prize in Chemistry, 2000" [link] Thomson Scientific, Richard Friend interview, Conducting Polymers, September 2001 [link] Graciela Blanchet et al, Large Area, High Resolution dry printing of conducting polymers for organic electronics, Applied Physics Letters, 82, 3, 463-465 [link] M Angelopoulos, Conducting Polymers in Microelectronics, IBM Journal of Research and Development, 45, 1, 2001 [link] Frank Endres, Electroprinting of Conducting Polymers, Merck [link]

	At A Glance:	When:	3–10 years
		Where:	Global
		How Fast:	Years
		Likelihood:	High
		Impact:	Medium-Low
		Controversy:	Medium

Related Outlooks: