Delta Scan: The Future of Science and Technology, 2005-2055: Continuing Marginal Role for Biofuels

Key Pages

Category:
Science and Technology

Domain:
Energy

Keywords:
Energy - biofuels, biomass, ethanol, methane, pulp, renewable energy, alternative energy, photosynthesis

Outlook:
Biofuels are unlikely to become more than a marginal source of energy, but research in the area may help drive breakthroughs in other areas such as energy storage.

Summary Analysis:
Biofuels as a category catches everything from ethanol to methane to pulp and paper waste. Existing biofuel and biomass technologies today account for a reasonably large amount of energy production. In the US, combustion of biomass (mostly waste from the pulp and paper industries, with a secondary source being capture of methane from landfills) generates as much energy as hydro plants and nearly twice as much as solar, geothermal, and wind combined. Although significant in aggregate, none of these sources provides the potential to scale to the much higher levels of production needed to meet increasing energy demand. As a result, despite their green attributes, existing biofuels have not excited much interest in the industry or the media.

On the other hand, considerable interest is being drawn to more experimental aspects of biofuels, and research is under way in many areas. Scientists are trying to harness photosynthesis to generate excess energy for harvesting but the indications are that this is unlikely to yield appreciable amounts of energy. Some researchers are investigating the potential of phytoplankton and other algae sources for the direct production of hydrocarbons. This avenue offers some interesting possibilities, but, as the process itself requires significant resources, it is also unlikely to generate economic quantities of fuel.

Perhaps the most promising area of research into biofuels is examining biochemical pathways for better harnessing and storage of energy. This area of research might help solve the inefficiency problems surrounding energy storage that block massive deployment of intermittent renewable energy sources such as solar and wind. Further research in this area may also help solar energy experts create more efficient solar cells by mimicking existing biological processes.

Expect biosciences research to have some profound impacts in the areas of pharmaceuticals and medical research but provide only minor advancements in the area of energy. More traditional uses of biofuels are likely to continue to meet a small but significant percentage of the world’s energy needs.

Implications:

Continuing marginal role for biofuels
Potential for improved storage of energy via biochemical pathways

Early Indicators:

Increasing investment in bioscience research in the area of pharmaceuticals

What to Watch:

Breakthroughs in biosciences research pave the way for breakthroughs in harnessing photosynthesis.
The paper and pulp industries remain healthy and grow, continuing to provide biofuels.

Parallels/Precedents:

Enablers/drivers:

Continuing growth of bioscience research
Growing concern over sustainability in the industrialized world

Leaders:
Regions:

Europe, US

Institutions:

Bio-Energy Research Group (BERG), Aston University, UK [link]
Tyndall Centre, UK [link]
SUPERGEN Biomass, Biofuels and Energy Crops Consortium, UK [link]
Bioenergy Network of Excellence, EU [link]
Austrian Bioenergy Centre [link]
Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland [link]
Institute for Energy and Environmental Research, Germany [link]
Berkeley Lab
US International Energy Agency
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Figures:

Sources:

"2005 International Energy Outlook." Energy Information Administration. [link]
"International Energy Agency" International Energy Agency [link]
"Berkeley Lab's Physical Biosciences Division" Berkeley Lab's Physical Biosciences Division [link]
"MIT Technology Review" MIT Technology Review [link]
Clarke, A. and Elliott, D. "An Assessment of Biomass as an energy sources: the case of energy from waste." Energy and Environment. 2002. Vol.13, No.1 pp.27-55.
"The Biofuels Directive: Potential for Climate Protection?" Conference Summary. European Climate Forum Third Autumn Conference. 2003 [link]
Peplow M. "Biofuels get mixed review." Nature. 23 Jan 2006 [link]

At A Glance:
When:
11–20 years

Where:
Global

How Fast:
Years

Likelihood:
High

Impact:
Low

Controversy:
Low

Related Outlooks:

About this outlook: An outlook is an internally consistent, plausible view of the future based on the best expertise available. It is not a prediction of the future. The AT-A-GLANCE ratings suggest the scope, scale, and uncertainty associated with this outlook. Each outlook is also a working document, with contributors adding comments and edits to improve the forecast over time. Please see the revision history for earlier versions.

Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Energy
Keywords:	Energy - biofuels, biomass, ethanol, methane, pulp, renewable energy, alternative energy, photosynthesis
Outlook:	Biofuels are unlikely to become more than a marginal source of energy, but research in the area may help drive breakthroughs in other areas such as energy storage.
Summary Analysis:	Biofuels as a category catches everything from ethanol to methane to pulp and paper waste. Existing biofuel and biomass technologies today account for a reasonably large amount of energy production. In the US, combustion of biomass (mostly waste from the pulp and paper industries, with a secondary source being capture of methane from landfills) generates as much energy as hydro plants and nearly twice as much as solar, geothermal, and wind combined. Although significant in aggregate, none of these sources provides the potential to scale to the much higher levels of production needed to meet increasing energy demand. As a result, despite their green attributes, existing biofuels have not excited much interest in the industry or the media. On the other hand, considerable interest is being drawn to more experimental aspects of biofuels, and research is under way in many areas. Scientists are trying to harness photosynthesis to generate excess energy for harvesting but the indications are that this is unlikely to yield appreciable amounts of energy. Some researchers are investigating the potential of phytoplankton and other algae sources for the direct production of hydrocarbons. This avenue offers some interesting possibilities, but, as the process itself requires significant resources, it is also unlikely to generate economic quantities of fuel. Perhaps the most promising area of research into biofuels is examining biochemical pathways for better harnessing and storage of energy. This area of research might help solve the inefficiency problems surrounding energy storage that block massive deployment of intermittent renewable energy sources such as solar and wind. Further research in this area may also help solar energy experts create more efficient solar cells by mimicking existing biological processes. Expect biosciences research to have some profound impacts in the areas of pharmaceuticals and medical research but provide only minor advancements in the area of energy. More traditional uses of biofuels are likely to continue to meet a small but significant percentage of the world’s energy needs.

	Implications:	Continuing marginal role for biofuels Potential for improved storage of energy via biochemical pathways
	Early Indicators:	Increasing investment in bioscience research in the area of pharmaceuticals
	What to Watch:	Breakthroughs in biosciences research pave the way for breakthroughs in harnessing photosynthesis. The paper and pulp industries remain healthy and grow, continuing to provide biofuels.
	Parallels/Precedents:
	Enablers/drivers:	Continuing growth of bioscience research Growing concern over sustainability in the industrialized world
	Leaders:	Regions: Europe, US Institutions: Bio-Energy Research Group (BERG), Aston University, UK [link] Tyndall Centre, UK [link] SUPERGEN Biomass, Biofuels and Energy Crops Consortium, UK [link] Bioenergy Network of Excellence, EU [link] Austrian Bioenergy Centre [link] Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland [link] Institute for Energy and Environmental Research, Germany [link] Berkeley Lab US International Energy Agency Massachusetts Institute of Technology
	Figures:
	Sources:	"2005 International Energy Outlook." Energy Information Administration. [link] "International Energy Agency" International Energy Agency [link] "Berkeley Lab's Physical Biosciences Division" Berkeley Lab's Physical Biosciences Division [link] "MIT Technology Review" MIT Technology Review [link] Clarke, A. and Elliott, D. "An Assessment of Biomass as an energy sources: the case of energy from waste." Energy and Environment. 2002. Vol.13, No.1 pp.27-55. "The Biofuels Directive: Potential for Climate Protection?" Conference Summary. European Climate Forum Third Autumn Conference. 2003 [link] Peplow M. "Biofuels get mixed review." Nature. 23 Jan 2006 [link]

At A Glance:	When:	11–20 years
	Where:	Global
	How Fast:	Years
	Likelihood:	High
	Impact:	Low
	Controversy:	Low