Delta Scan: The Future of Science and Technology, 2005-2055: Manufacturing with Programmable Materials

Key Pages

Category:	Science and technology
Domain:	Materials, Nanotechnology, Computer Science
Keywords:	Nanotechnology - nano-assembly, nanomaterials, nanostructuring, smart materials, claytronics
Outlook:	Nanoscale physical materials that can be automatically assembled into useful configurations by computer instructions could usher in a new era in manufacturing.
Analysis:	New nano-materials with unique properties and functions could significantly change many segments of the materials manufacturing industries, impacting on the way goods are manufactured and designed. Using a variety of electronic, mechanical, and biological techniques, nanoscale building blocks, with precisely controlled size and composition could be assembled into larger structures in a process called nanostructuring. Nanoscale manufacturing could also enable the development of structures not previously observed in nature. It could allow us to synthesize materials by design, develop new bio-inspired materials, introduce cost-effective and scalable production techniques, and determine at the nanoscale the reasons for materials failure. Potential applications of nanoscale manufacturing include the following: Manufacturing of nanostructured metals, ceramics, and polymers in exact shapes without machining Improved printing brought about by nanometer-scale particles that have the best properties of both dyes and pigments Nanoscale cemented and plated carbides and nanocoatings for cutting tools and for electronic, chemical, and structural applications Nanofabrication on a chip with high levels of complexity and functionality

Implications:

Proliferation of lighter, stronger programmable materials to be used in everything from construction to computing and health care
Advent of a new manufacturing paradigm based on small-scale molecular assembly
Reductions in life-cycle costs of materials due to lower failure rates
Emergence of innovative devices based on new principles and architectures
Possible decline of traditional manufacturing regions and emergence of new ones in developed and developing economies

Early Indicators:

Current work by researchers at Carnegie Mellon University on 'claytronics', the term they use to describe using reconfigurable nanoscale robots (claytronic atoms, or 'catoms') to form much larger-scale machines or mechanisms
Completion of preliminary design and modeling studies by General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems of a useful self-replicating system (SRS) -- a system of kinematic cellular automata (KCA) cells that are configured as a limited implementation of a universal constructor

What to Watch:

IBM or Motorola announces commericial availability of self-assembled nanocrystal flash chips (both have lab prototypes now).
A nanomaterials research laboratory demonstrates self-assembling nanowires and a 'nanofactory' capable of building a larger version of itself.
A biological research laboratory demonstrates self-assembling materials, which mimic biologic growth processes.

Parallels/Precedents:

Rapid development of microscale manufacturing, primarily for semconductors, during the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s

Enablers/drivers:

Massive international investment in nanotechnologies

Leaders:
Institutions:

Carnegie Mellon University (launching of the Synthetic Reality Project [link])
Seldon Technologies (proposal for a water stick, filtering water with nanotubes)
Nanostructuring Research Group [link]
Intel Claytronics project [link]
CSIRO Australia [link]
UCLA Active Materials Lab [link]
University of Leeds, Centre for Self-Organising Molecular Systems [link]
University of Birmingham, Collaborative Research Network in Nanotechnology [link]
Oxonica (Oxford University spinout) [link]
Metal Nanopowders (Birmingham University spinout) [link]

Figures:

none

Sources:

"National Nanotechnology Initiative - The Initiative and its Implementation Plan." National Science and Technology Council Committee on Technology, Subcommittee on Nanoscale Science, Engineering and Technology. July 2000. (PDF file) [link]
Luther, Dr. Wolfgang. 2004. "International Strategy and Foresight Report on Nanoscience and Nanotechnology. Final Report." VDI Technologiezentrum GmbH, Future Technologies Division. March 19. (PDF file) [link]
Goldstein, Seth and Todd Mowry. 2004. Claytronics, Synthetic Reality, and Robotics. Carnegie Mellon University. (PDF file) [link]
Toth-Fejel, Tihamer. 2004. "Modeling Kinematic Cellular Automata, Final Report." NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts. April 30 2004. (PDF file) [link]
Radhika Nadpal, MIT, Programmable Materials [link]
P Milani, Nanotechnology and New Materials: Trends and Industrial Opportunities, Metallurgia Italiana, 95, 1, 11-14, 2003 [link]
Wil McCarthy, Hacking Matter, Basic Books 2004, ISBN 0465044298 [link]
A K Pandey et al, Smart Materials: An Overview, SPIE Proceedings 3903, 288-297, 1999
"The replicator: create your own body double" by Tom Siegfried, New Scientist (Magazine issue 2503, 11th June 2005)

At A Glance:
When:
11-20 years

Where:
Global

How Fast:
Years

Likelihood:
Medium-High

Impact:
Medium-Low

Controversy:
Moderate

Related Outlooks:

About this outlook: An outlook is an internally consistent, plausible view of the future based on the best expertise available. It is not a prediction of the future. The AT-A-GLANCE ratings suggest the scope, scale, and uncertainty associated with this outlook. Each outlook is also a working document, with contributors adding comments and edits to improve the forecast over time. Please see the revision history for earlier versions.

Posted at Dec 21/2006 09:50AM:
Bleyddyn: For a much more detailed discussion of how "Manufacturing with Programmable Materials" might impact society and individuals in the future try visiting The Center for Responsible Nanotechnology at http://crnano.typepad.com/crnblog/

One good example is: http://crnano.typepad.com/crnblog/2004/11/unanswered_ques.html

Posted at Dec 21/2006 11:22AM:
Chris Phoenix (CRN's Director of Research):

A couple of clarifications:

CRN's main website is http://crnano.org. Our blog has lots of good stuff too--thanks, Bleyddyn.

This article appears to talk about a broader set of manufacturing techniques, which will start by building less advanced (though still useful/interesting) products. The "sweet spot" that CRN focuses on is the use of nanoscale tools to build more nanoscale tools by covalent synthesis. That promises a number of interesting implications including low-cost fully-automated exponential manufacturing.

Several trends are leading toward that sweet spot. CRN's timeline is pretty aggressive, but I've studied this for a decade and a half, and I believe most nanotechnologists haven't fully realized the extent to which the molecular manufacturing approach can simplify a lot of nanoscale problems.

In any case, it's not either-or, it's a continuum.

	Implications:	Proliferation of lighter, stronger programmable materials to be used in everything from construction to computing and health care Advent of a new manufacturing paradigm based on small-scale molecular assembly Reductions in life-cycle costs of materials due to lower failure rates Emergence of innovative devices based on new principles and architectures Possible decline of traditional manufacturing regions and emergence of new ones in developed and developing economies
	Early Indicators:	Current work by researchers at Carnegie Mellon University on 'claytronics', the term they use to describe using reconfigurable nanoscale robots (claytronic atoms, or 'catoms') to form much larger-scale machines or mechanisms Completion of preliminary design and modeling studies by General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems of a useful self-replicating system (SRS) -- a system of kinematic cellular automata (KCA) cells that are configured as a limited implementation of a universal constructor
	What to Watch:	IBM or Motorola announces commericial availability of self-assembled nanocrystal flash chips (both have lab prototypes now). A nanomaterials research laboratory demonstrates self-assembling nanowires and a 'nanofactory' capable of building a larger version of itself. A biological research laboratory demonstrates self-assembling materials, which mimic biologic growth processes.
	Parallels/Precedents:	Rapid development of microscale manufacturing, primarily for semconductors, during the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s
	Enablers/drivers:	Massive international investment in nanotechnologies
	Leaders:	Institutions: Carnegie Mellon University (launching of the Synthetic Reality Project [link]) Seldon Technologies (proposal for a water stick, filtering water with nanotubes) Nanostructuring Research Group [link] Intel Claytronics project [link] CSIRO Australia [link] UCLA Active Materials Lab [link] University of Leeds, Centre for Self-Organising Molecular Systems [link] University of Birmingham, Collaborative Research Network in Nanotechnology [link] Oxonica (Oxford University spinout) [link] Metal Nanopowders (Birmingham University spinout) [link]
	Figures:	none
	Sources:	"National Nanotechnology Initiative - The Initiative and its Implementation Plan." National Science and Technology Council Committee on Technology, Subcommittee on Nanoscale Science, Engineering and Technology. July 2000. (PDF file) [link] Luther, Dr. Wolfgang. 2004. "International Strategy and Foresight Report on Nanoscience and Nanotechnology. Final Report." VDI Technologiezentrum GmbH, Future Technologies Division. March 19. (PDF file) [link] Goldstein, Seth and Todd Mowry. 2004. Claytronics, Synthetic Reality, and Robotics. Carnegie Mellon University. (PDF file) [link] Toth-Fejel, Tihamer. 2004. "Modeling Kinematic Cellular Automata, Final Report." NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts. April 30 2004. (PDF file) [link] Radhika Nadpal, MIT, Programmable Materials [link] P Milani, Nanotechnology and New Materials: Trends and Industrial Opportunities, Metallurgia Italiana, 95, 1, 11-14, 2003 [link] Wil McCarthy, Hacking Matter, Basic Books 2004, ISBN 0465044298 [link] A K Pandey et al, Smart Materials: An Overview, SPIE Proceedings 3903, 288-297, 1999 "The replicator: create your own body double" by Tom Siegfried, New Scientist (Magazine issue 2503, 11th June 2005)

At A Glance:	When:	11-20 years
	Where:	Global
	How Fast:	Years
	Likelihood:	Medium-High
	Impact:	Medium-Low
	Controversy:	Moderate