Delta Scan: The Future of Science and Technology, 2005-2055: Wind Energy: Growing in Competitiveness

Key Pages

Category:
Science and Technology

Domain:
Energy

Keywords:
Energy - wind, renewable, alternative energy, air pollution

Outlook:
Thanks to technological improvements, wind energy is likely to continue to be the fastest growing major energy source over the next several years, but it will probably not displace oil, coal, natural gas, nuclear, or hydroelectric as a top energy producer for at least the next 20 years.

Summary Analysis:
Despite their promise and backing from those desiring clean energy, renewable energy sources have suffered from being uneconomical when compared to dirtier fossil fuels and a method of ‘storing’ energy produced, to give a constant supply regardless of external conditions, still has not been developed. Recently, though, as a result of dramatic technological improvements - including larger blades, rotating bases to align with wind direction, and automated optimisation software - wind energy has started to compete with fossil fuels in some instances and in the UK is cheaper to produce than nuclear energy. In fact, wind has become the single fastest growing energy source in the US (growing nearly 25% per year over the past 5 years) and in the world.

Still, the rapid growth of wind energy is only helping to dent the need for more fossil fuels, because its phenomenal growth rate is from a small base. (Five years ago, wind energy was competing with solar for the title of smallest producer of energy worldwide among the ten major energy sources.) In the US, the net increase in wind energy from 1998 to 2003 was just 1/20 of the net energy increase from either oil or coal over that same period and the UK wind power industry produces just over 1000mw, enough to power a quarter of the homes in London. But with world energy prices on the rise and concerns about energy security, the attractiveness of wind from an economic and environmental standpoint will continue to drive its robust adoption. Only if oil prices drop back to lower levels, massive liquefied natural gas infrastructure is built, or the global economy suffers a severe recession will the growth prospects of wind be deflated.

The emergence of wind as an economically competitive energy source has fueled the rise of numerous new wind farms around the world, but wind farm development is not without its drawbacks and opposition. Many local activists find the farms unappealing because they damage views, while others are concerned about possible damage to bird populations that stray into the propellers. Such environmental impacts, as well as concerns about noise, have been eased with larger, quieter turbines and new offshore developments. Denmark draws roughly 20% of its power from wind energy, mostly offshore, and though this is currently more expensive than land-based installations, costs are expected to decline with increased scale and technological advancement. A plan for a wind farm off the coast of Massachusetts, though slowed by local opposition, promises to supply three-fourths of the power necessary for the surrounding region at costs similar to those of more traditional energy sources.

Despite its healthy growth prospects, wind energy will not be the panacea for the world’s energy problems. Many of the most obvious wind energy sites have been exploited. Marginal sites will only come online alongside advances in decentralized power grids, more economical energy storage, and more dependable energy allocation methods -- all to help alleviate wind’s intermittent nature. Nonetheless, wind energy is expected to join clean coal and liquefied natural gas as the three main 'cleaner' alternatives to current energy production. If energy prices remain high, wind energy might even grow to the point of meeting 1% of the world’s energy needs (up from just 0.1% today).

Implications:

Cleaner air as a result of the increasing percentage of energy generated from a renewable, nonpolluting source

Early Indicators:

Recent and continued investment of large conglomerate and energy firms in wind production, replacing many smaller independent pioneers

What to Watch:

Growth of offshore wind farms indicates the economic feasibility of wind as an energy source even at a higher cost.
Wind energy is a large beneficiary as the debate over global warming intensifies and the public demands action.
Research is undertaken into how to mitigate the damage done to bird populations by wind farms.

Parallels/Precedents:

The rapid build out of nuclear energy when it promised an environmentally friendly domestic source of energy

Enablers/drivers:

Continued R&D investment by large entities and subsequent technological improvements, further lowering the cost of generating wind energy
Increasing local and global concern about global warming

Leaders:
Regions:

Europe and the US: Germany, Denmark, UK

Institutions:

CCLRC (Council for the Central Laboratory of the Research Councils) Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, UK [link]
Centre for Renewable Energy Systems Technology (CREST), Loughborough University, UK [link]
Energy and Environment Research Unit, Open University, UK [link]
British Wind Energy Association [link]
German Wind Energy Institute [link]
The Technical University of Denmark [link]
World Renewable Energy Congress/Network [link]
Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association [link]
General Electric
International Energy Agency
Sandia National Labs
Windward Engineering
US National Wind Technology Center
University of Massachusetts – Renewable Energy Research Lab
World Wind Energy Association

Figures:

Sources:

"2005 International Energy Outlook." Energy Information Administration. [link]
"International Energy Agency" International Energy Agency [link]
"Wind Power Has a Head of Steam." Business Week i3942 p27 (11 July 2005). [link]
"The Move to Maturity in the Wind Turbine Manufacturing Industry - Is it Happening and, if so, What are its Implications?" P. Connor. Renewable Energy (special conference edition) July 2000. pp.1237-1240.
"Large Scale Offshore Wind Energy in the North Sea a Technology and Policy Perspective." HJ Kooijman et al. Wind Engineering 2004 [link]
"Wind and other Re: How Much Can the Grid Accommodate?" G.Marsh. ReFOCUS Jan/Feb 2006 [link]
British Wind Energy Association - The Economics of Wind Energy [link]

At A Glance:
When:
11–20 years

Where:
Global

How Fast:
Years

Likelihood:
High

Impact:
Low

Controversy:
Low

Related Outlooks:

About this outlook: An outlook is an internally consistent, plausible view of the future based on the best expertise available. It is not a prediction of the future. The AT-A-GLANCE ratings suggest the scope, scale, and uncertainty associated with this outlook. Each outlook is also a working document, with contributors adding comments and edits to improve the forecast over time. Please see the revision history for earlier versions.

Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Energy
Keywords:	Energy - wind, renewable, alternative energy, air pollution
Outlook:	Thanks to technological improvements, wind energy is likely to continue to be the fastest growing major energy source over the next several years, but it will probably not displace oil, coal, natural gas, nuclear, or hydroelectric as a top energy producer for at least the next 20 years.
Summary Analysis:	Despite their promise and backing from those desiring clean energy, renewable energy sources have suffered from being uneconomical when compared to dirtier fossil fuels and a method of ‘storing’ energy produced, to give a constant supply regardless of external conditions, still has not been developed. Recently, though, as a result of dramatic technological improvements - including larger blades, rotating bases to align with wind direction, and automated optimisation software - wind energy has started to compete with fossil fuels in some instances and in the UK is cheaper to produce than nuclear energy. In fact, wind has become the single fastest growing energy source in the US (growing nearly 25% per year over the past 5 years) and in the world. Still, the rapid growth of wind energy is only helping to dent the need for more fossil fuels, because its phenomenal growth rate is from a small base. (Five years ago, wind energy was competing with solar for the title of smallest producer of energy worldwide among the ten major energy sources.) In the US, the net increase in wind energy from 1998 to 2003 was just 1/20 of the net energy increase from either oil or coal over that same period and the UK wind power industry produces just over 1000mw, enough to power a quarter of the homes in London. But with world energy prices on the rise and concerns about energy security, the attractiveness of wind from an economic and environmental standpoint will continue to drive its robust adoption. Only if oil prices drop back to lower levels, massive liquefied natural gas infrastructure is built, or the global economy suffers a severe recession will the growth prospects of wind be deflated. The emergence of wind as an economically competitive energy source has fueled the rise of numerous new wind farms around the world, but wind farm development is not without its drawbacks and opposition. Many local activists find the farms unappealing because they damage views, while others are concerned about possible damage to bird populations that stray into the propellers. Such environmental impacts, as well as concerns about noise, have been eased with larger, quieter turbines and new offshore developments. Denmark draws roughly 20% of its power from wind energy, mostly offshore, and though this is currently more expensive than land-based installations, costs are expected to decline with increased scale and technological advancement. A plan for a wind farm off the coast of Massachusetts, though slowed by local opposition, promises to supply three-fourths of the power necessary for the surrounding region at costs similar to those of more traditional energy sources. Despite its healthy growth prospects, wind energy will not be the panacea for the world’s energy problems. Many of the most obvious wind energy sites have been exploited. Marginal sites will only come online alongside advances in decentralized power grids, more economical energy storage, and more dependable energy allocation methods -- all to help alleviate wind’s intermittent nature. Nonetheless, wind energy is expected to join clean coal and liquefied natural gas as the three main 'cleaner' alternatives to current energy production. If energy prices remain high, wind energy might even grow to the point of meeting 1% of the world’s energy needs (up from just 0.1% today).

	Implications:	Cleaner air as a result of the increasing percentage of energy generated from a renewable, nonpolluting source
	Early Indicators:	Recent and continued investment of large conglomerate and energy firms in wind production, replacing many smaller independent pioneers
	What to Watch:	Growth of offshore wind farms indicates the economic feasibility of wind as an energy source even at a higher cost. Wind energy is a large beneficiary as the debate over global warming intensifies and the public demands action. Research is undertaken into how to mitigate the damage done to bird populations by wind farms.
	Parallels/Precedents:	The rapid build out of nuclear energy when it promised an environmentally friendly domestic source of energy
	Enablers/drivers:	Continued R&D investment by large entities and subsequent technological improvements, further lowering the cost of generating wind energy Increasing local and global concern about global warming
	Leaders:	Regions: Europe and the US: Germany, Denmark, UK Institutions: CCLRC (Council for the Central Laboratory of the Research Councils) Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, UK [link] Centre for Renewable Energy Systems Technology (CREST), Loughborough University, UK [link] Energy and Environment Research Unit, Open University, UK [link] British Wind Energy Association [link] German Wind Energy Institute [link] The Technical University of Denmark [link] World Renewable Energy Congress/Network [link] Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association [link] General Electric International Energy Agency Sandia National Labs Windward Engineering US National Wind Technology Center University of Massachusetts – Renewable Energy Research Lab World Wind Energy Association
	Figures:
	Sources:	"2005 International Energy Outlook." Energy Information Administration. [link] "International Energy Agency" International Energy Agency [link] "Wind Power Has a Head of Steam." Business Week i3942 p27 (11 July 2005). [link] "The Move to Maturity in the Wind Turbine Manufacturing Industry - Is it Happening and, if so, What are its Implications?" P. Connor. Renewable Energy (special conference edition) July 2000. pp.1237-1240. "Large Scale Offshore Wind Energy in the North Sea a Technology and Policy Perspective." HJ Kooijman et al. Wind Engineering 2004 [link] "Wind and other Re: How Much Can the Grid Accommodate?" G.Marsh. ReFOCUS Jan/Feb 2006 [link] British Wind Energy Association - The Economics of Wind Energy [link]

At A Glance:	When:	11–20 years
	Where:	Global
	How Fast:	Years
	Likelihood:	High
	Impact:	Low
	Controversy:	Low