Delta Scan: The Future of Science and Technology, 2005-2055: Continued Growth in Energy Consumption

Key Pages

Category:
Science and Technology

Domain:
Energy

Keywords:
Energy - oil, alternative energy, coal, nuclear, natural gas, wind, biofuels, solar energy

Outlook:
Energy consumption may continue to increase worldwide, with a heavy continued reliance on fossil fuels to meet the growing need.

Summary Analysis:
Over the past 15 years, a period generally considered to have exhibited robust global economic growth, the consumption of energy worldwide has increased at about 1.5% per year. Forecasts for the next 20 years suggest energy consumption will grow by 2% per year, far outstripping recent growth. At this rate, the world would double its current consumption of energy in only 36 years. An increased push for greater energy efficiency in the developed world is expected to help curb growth, but the rapid industrialisation of billions of people in Asia, where energy use is less efficient, will probably continue to drive the search for more energy.

Recent price spikes in oil and natural gas suggest that the supply of these two largest energy sources is coming under strain. The expected accelerated growth of energy consumption will further tax supplies. However, the composition of energy sources will probably not vary much in the near to medium term. All current sources of energy will probably continue to be important, with a gradual shift to alternative sources in the industrialised world offset by the rapid energy consumption growth served by fossil fuels in the emerging world.

Oil has plenty of supplies to power our transportation needs for the next century, but it is a finite resource and one day will need to be replaced. Coal still has plentiful reserves throughout the world, and the emergence of clean coal technologies is expected to drive a small revival of this once ‘dirty’ fossil fuel. Natural gas is the current energy source of choice for growth, thanks to its relatively clean combustion and largely untapped supplies, but challenges remain in efficiently transporting it to market.

Despite current plentiful reserves of the three primary fossil fuels, infrastructure limitations and the desire for cleaner energy will be likely to make the use of alternative supplies paramount to meet the rising growth in demand. To put the demand for cleaner energy in perspective, it is estimated in World Energy Council scenarios that by 2050 the world will need between 17TWy (TeraWatt years) and 33TWy worth of carbon-free energy production to support a stable atmospheric carbon dioxide level of 400 ppm. A mid-range value is 25TWy. For comparison, the world currently consumes about 14 TWy of energy. Carbon dioxide levels are presently at 384 ppm and would be 550ppm in 50 years if our carbon emissions are stabilised at today's levels, or 850ppm if we double energy use with the same technology and fuel mix as today. These estimated values are controversial, but even if significantly off, they still paint a picture of a dramatic need for not only more but also cleaner energy supplies.

Wind energy is currently the fastest growing energy source in the world thanks to advances in technology, but limitations on suitable sites will keep wind a modest if significant source of power. Biofuels catch a lot of interesting press, but the sheer size and scale of resources needed to generate large amounts of energy this way will probably keep it a relatively small contributor at best. Only nuclear and solar power have the potential to dramatically alter the energy supply landscape, as both could potentially produce enormous amounts of energy. The policy dilemma of nuclear power – abundant energy with no air pollution versus radioactive waste disposal, large upfront costs, and catastrophic accident potential – is one for legislators to debate. Expect some countries to eventually follow France’s lead and ‘go nuclear’ while the majority look elsewhere. Solar energy is currently cost prohibitive, but if technological improvements and rising prices for other energy sources allow it to become cost competitive, the whole energy landscape could change. Hydrogen and cold fusion are wildcards: unlikely to materialise but they could have a profound impact if they did.

Implications:

Continuation of more of the same in the energy markets, with all sources of energy growing to meet the growing needs of the next few decades
Potential for an energy crisis in the near future unless renewable sources of energy are massively expanded soon, given that fossil fuels are finite in supply and showing strains meeting today’s demand
Little likelihood of a 'game-changing' energy source appearing in the next few years
All sources of energy will be important with the gradual shift to alternative sources in the industrialized world offset by the rapid energy consumption growth served by fossil fuels in the emerging world.

Early Indicators:

Price spikes in oil and natural gas
Increasing demand in the industrialised world for cleaner energy technologies

What to Watch:

Solar energy technology breakthroughs make this clean source of power cost competitive.

Parallels/Precedents:

Enablers/drivers:

Rapid economic growth in the emerging world (especially Asia)
Higher prices for oil, leading to greater investment in oil extraction techniques and allowing supply to eventually rise to meet increased demand

Leaders:

Energy Information Administration
BP Global (Statistical Review of World Energy)
ARC Financial Corporation (economic analyst Peter Tertzakian)
Department of Trade and Industry - Energy Group, UK [link]
Research Councils Energy Programme, UK [link]
UK Energy Research Council [link]
World Energy Council [link]
The European Network for Energy Economics Research [link]
World Economic Forum [link]

Figures:

A1 Global Energy Consumption <”Energy Demand” sheet on “Energy Data Updated” file>
A2 Global Energy Consumption by Source <”Global Energy by Source” sheet on “Energy Data Updated” file>

Sources:

"2005 International Energy Outlook." Energy Information Administration. [link]
"International Energy Agency" International Energy Agency [link]
US Department of Energy "US Department of Energy Basic Research Needs Consortia." [link]
"The Energy Review." Cabinet Office Performance and Innovation Unit, UK. Feb 2002 [link]
World Energy Technology Outlook - 2050 [link]
Watson J. "Rising Sun: Technology Transfer in China." Harvard International Review [link]
Fan He, Donghai Qin. "China's Energy Strategy in the Twenty First Century." China & World Economy 93-104, vol 14, No. 2 2006 [link]
World Energy Council scenarios to 2050 [link]

At A Glance:
When:
11–20 years

Where:
Global

How Fast:
Years

Likelihood:
High

Impact:
Low

Controversy:
Medium

Related Outlooks:

About this outlook: An outlook is an internally consistent, plausible view of the future based on the best expertise available. It is not a prediction of the future. The AT-A-GLANCE ratings suggest the scope, scale, and uncertainty associated with this outlook. Each outlook is also a working document, with contributors adding comments and edits to improve the forecast over time. Please see the revision history for earlier versions.

Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Energy
Keywords:	Energy - oil, alternative energy, coal, nuclear, natural gas, wind, biofuels, solar energy
Outlook:	Energy consumption may continue to increase worldwide, with a heavy continued reliance on fossil fuels to meet the growing need.
Summary Analysis:	Over the past 15 years, a period generally considered to have exhibited robust global economic growth, the consumption of energy worldwide has increased at about 1.5% per year. Forecasts for the next 20 years suggest energy consumption will grow by 2% per year, far outstripping recent growth. At this rate, the world would double its current consumption of energy in only 36 years. An increased push for greater energy efficiency in the developed world is expected to help curb growth, but the rapid industrialisation of billions of people in Asia, where energy use is less efficient, will probably continue to drive the search for more energy. Recent price spikes in oil and natural gas suggest that the supply of these two largest energy sources is coming under strain. The expected accelerated growth of energy consumption will further tax supplies. However, the composition of energy sources will probably not vary much in the near to medium term. All current sources of energy will probably continue to be important, with a gradual shift to alternative sources in the industrialised world offset by the rapid energy consumption growth served by fossil fuels in the emerging world. Oil has plenty of supplies to power our transportation needs for the next century, but it is a finite resource and one day will need to be replaced. Coal still has plentiful reserves throughout the world, and the emergence of clean coal technologies is expected to drive a small revival of this once ‘dirty’ fossil fuel. Natural gas is the current energy source of choice for growth, thanks to its relatively clean combustion and largely untapped supplies, but challenges remain in efficiently transporting it to market. Despite current plentiful reserves of the three primary fossil fuels, infrastructure limitations and the desire for cleaner energy will be likely to make the use of alternative supplies paramount to meet the rising growth in demand. To put the demand for cleaner energy in perspective, it is estimated in World Energy Council scenarios that by 2050 the world will need between 17TWy (TeraWatt years) and 33TWy worth of carbon-free energy production to support a stable atmospheric carbon dioxide level of 400 ppm. A mid-range value is 25TWy. For comparison, the world currently consumes about 14 TWy of energy. Carbon dioxide levels are presently at 384 ppm and would be 550ppm in 50 years if our carbon emissions are stabilised at today's levels, or 850ppm if we double energy use with the same technology and fuel mix as today. These estimated values are controversial, but even if significantly off, they still paint a picture of a dramatic need for not only more but also cleaner energy supplies. Wind energy is currently the fastest growing energy source in the world thanks to advances in technology, but limitations on suitable sites will keep wind a modest if significant source of power. Biofuels catch a lot of interesting press, but the sheer size and scale of resources needed to generate large amounts of energy this way will probably keep it a relatively small contributor at best. Only nuclear and solar power have the potential to dramatically alter the energy supply landscape, as both could potentially produce enormous amounts of energy. The policy dilemma of nuclear power – abundant energy with no air pollution versus radioactive waste disposal, large upfront costs, and catastrophic accident potential – is one for legislators to debate. Expect some countries to eventually follow France’s lead and ‘go nuclear’ while the majority look elsewhere. Solar energy is currently cost prohibitive, but if technological improvements and rising prices for other energy sources allow it to become cost competitive, the whole energy landscape could change. Hydrogen and cold fusion are wildcards: unlikely to materialise but they could have a profound impact if they did.

	Implications:	Continuation of more of the same in the energy markets, with all sources of energy growing to meet the growing needs of the next few decades Potential for an energy crisis in the near future unless renewable sources of energy are massively expanded soon, given that fossil fuels are finite in supply and showing strains meeting today’s demand Little likelihood of a 'game-changing' energy source appearing in the next few years All sources of energy will be important with the gradual shift to alternative sources in the industrialized world offset by the rapid energy consumption growth served by fossil fuels in the emerging world.
	Early Indicators:	Price spikes in oil and natural gas Increasing demand in the industrialised world for cleaner energy technologies
	What to Watch:	Solar energy technology breakthroughs make this clean source of power cost competitive.
	Parallels/Precedents:
	Enablers/drivers:	Rapid economic growth in the emerging world (especially Asia) Higher prices for oil, leading to greater investment in oil extraction techniques and allowing supply to eventually rise to meet increased demand
	Leaders:	Energy Information Administration BP Global (Statistical Review of World Energy) ARC Financial Corporation (economic analyst Peter Tertzakian) Department of Trade and Industry - Energy Group, UK [link] Research Councils Energy Programme, UK [link] UK Energy Research Council [link] World Energy Council [link] The European Network for Energy Economics Research [link] World Economic Forum [link]
	Figures:	A1 Global Energy Consumption <”Energy Demand” sheet on “Energy Data Updated” file> A2 Global Energy Consumption by Source <”Global Energy by Source” sheet on “Energy Data Updated” file>
	Sources:	"2005 International Energy Outlook." Energy Information Administration. [link] "International Energy Agency" International Energy Agency [link] US Department of Energy "US Department of Energy Basic Research Needs Consortia." [link] "The Energy Review." Cabinet Office Performance and Innovation Unit, UK. Feb 2002 [link] World Energy Technology Outlook - 2050 [link] Watson J. "Rising Sun: Technology Transfer in China." Harvard International Review [link] Fan He, Donghai Qin. "China's Energy Strategy in the Twenty First Century." China & World Economy 93-104, vol 14, No. 2 2006 [link] World Energy Council scenarios to 2050 [link]

At A Glance:	When:	11–20 years
	Where:	Global
	How Fast:	Years
	Likelihood:	High
	Impact:	Low
	Controversy:	Medium