Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Energy
Keywords:	Energy - nuclear, alternative energy, air pollution
Outlook:	Despite its potential to cut fossil-fuel dependency, global use of nuclear power will probably experience only modest growth over the next two decades, driven mainly by developing economies.
Summary Analysis:	Nuclear power has been the second fastest growing source of energy during the past 15 years in both the developed and the developing world – second only to natural gas in developed countries and hydroelectric in emerging nations. This rapid growth has been achieved despite a dearth of nuclear plant construction. The growth stems from efficiency gains made at existing facilities from technological improvements, experience, and increased capacity. Most plants around the world are working beyond their original operational life-spans. With adequate safety upgrades they continue to have their operational life extended. Eventually, though, most of these plants will be forced to shut down, leaving policy makers with a dilemma: should we create new nuclear capacity or find a significant amount of replacement energy from alternative sources? In the developed world, nuclear energy is seeing a revival in interest. Surprisingly, many environmentalists are leading the charge as worries over global warming spread. (Nuclear power plants do not release carbon dioxide or any other major air pollutant, though the production of Uranium does create greenhouse gas pollution.) In addition, once operational, nuclear power is generally estimated to be the second cheapest producer of energy (second only to coal, although cost estimates vary by location and this is not true everywhere). However, siting a new nuclear facility is extremely difficult in representative democracies due to stiff local opposition. Also, nuclear power requires enormous start-up capital. As a result, new sites are and will probably continue to be very difficult to acquire in the developed world. Instead, policy makers are likely to continue trying to extend, upgrade, and rebuild existing sites. Individual countries may follow France’s example and become mostly nuclear, but these will probably be the rare exception. Overall, nuclear power production is expected to remain constant over the next 20 years in the developed world. In the emerging world, the situation is significantly different. Local advocates have far less influence over political decisions, pollution is a secondary concern to economic growth, and the rapid development of these economies requires enormous amounts of energy. With many of the roadblocks and concerns about nuclear power less of an issue in the developing world, the appeal of nuclear power as an adequate and controllable energy supply to fuel future growth will be irresistible. The hurdle of access to proper civilian nuclear technology will keep most countries out of the nuclear arena, but those that have acquired the expertise will most likely push rapidly. As a result, nuclear power in the developing world is projected to grow at nearly 3.5% per year for the next two decades and will thus become the fastest growing energy source. Expect China, India, and South Korea to make enormous investments in nuclear power over the coming decades, helping to mitigate the demand for fossil fuels. Future advanced reactors at higher temperatures could be dual producers of electricity and hydrogen (through thermochemical reaction); if so this would remove one barrier to nuclear which is its inability to load-follow (which means the total installed capacity is usually set at the minimum load of an electricity network). This could be achieved today with electrolysers, but these are generally uneconomic, and there are continuing issues of hydrogen storage and transport.

	Implications:	Stagnation of the nuclear power industry in the developed world Rapid growth with much new construction of nuclear plants in the emerging world Increased potential for catastrophic incidents with every new plant that goes online Increased risk of nuclear weapons proliferation
	Early Indicators:	India’s recent nonproliferation deal with the US Pakistan’s successful establishment of military nuclear mastery Iran’s and North Korea’s nuclear experimentation
	What to Watch:	India announces a major upgrade to its nuclear capacity. China’s government focuses on developing domestic energy sources, mostly nuclear, to minimize outside influences on its economy. The rate of nuclear plant decommissioning increases in the developed world.
	Parallels/Precedents:	France’s decision to 'go nuclear', so that nuclear now comprises over 90% of its electricity generation Defiance of the developed world by countries like India and Pakistan acquiring nuclear capabilities
	Enablers/drivers:	Improved access to nuclear technology in the developing world Continuation of authoritarian regimes in developing countries Rapid industrialization of many of the largest emerging economies
	Leaders:	Regions: US, France, Japan (current) China, South Korea, India (upcoming) Institutions: World Nuclear Assocation [link] Energy Information Administration [link] European Atomic Energy Community [link] World Nuclear University [link] Dalton Nuclear Institute, UK [link] Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), France [link] Kyoto University Research Reactor Institute, Japan [link] Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, India [link] Korean Nuclear Society [link] Nuclear Energy Institute, US [link]
	Figures:
	Sources:	"2005 International Energy Outlook." Energy Information Administration. [link] "International Energy Agency" International Energy Agency [link] "The International Atomic Energy Agency" The International Atomic Energy Agency [link] J.J.C. Bruggink, B.C.C. van der Zwaan "The role of nuclear energy in establishing sustainable energy paths." International Journal of Global Energy Issues 2002 - Vol. 18, No.2/3/4 pp. 151-180 [link] Beck P., Grimston M. "Double or Quits: the Global Future of Civil Nuclear Energy" Briefing Paper. Royal Institute for International Affairs. April 2002 [link] D. M. C. Horsley, P. J. Hallington. "Nuclear Power and the Management of the Radioactive Waste Legacy." 7th World Congress of Chemical Engineering July 2005. Vol 83 Issue a7 [link] "Joining the nuclear family." Economist. Mar 02 2006 [link] China Power and Alternative Energy Summit 2006 [link]

	At A Glance:	When:	11–20 years
		Where:	Global
		How Fast:	Years
		Likelihood:	High
		Impact:	Moderate
		Controversy:	Low

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