Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Space Sciences
Keywords:	Space science & Astronomy - space, exploration, origins, extraterrestrial life
Outlook:	Manned space missions may diminish in importance and number as developments in the design and deployment of robot spacecraft make them increasingly attractive to space agencies.
Summary Analysis:	Even as NASA concentrates its resources on manned lunar and Martian expeditions, unmanned space exploration may find new prominence and greater funding in an effort to replace more costly, less productive science performed on manned missions. With NASA funding at a low ebb (at only .85 % of GDP, down from 3+% during the Apollo era), the European Space Agency (ESA), the Russian Federal Space Agency, and the Japan Aerospace eXploration Agency (JAXA) will probably lead this next age of unmanned exploration. Though ESA's budget ($3.8 billion for FY2005) is roughly a quarter of NASA's ($16 billion for FY2006), ESA's agility and relative lack of legacy programs will help it to achieve more with less funding. Over the coming decade, ESA has concrete plans for unmanned missions to Venus, Mars, Mercury, and in conjunction with the Indian space agency, the moon. ESA will probably use knowledge developed in these programmes, and especially research on new propulsion technologies, to launch even more probes in the years up to 2020 and beyond. Unified platforms and systems of systems will reduce overall costs. Initial probe development promises to beget less expensive probes in the future. Building upon programmes planned for the 2010 to 2020 timeframe, scientists hope to be able to construct 3D maps of the galaxy, gain a better understanding of the origins of the universe, and search for Earth-like planets. Microsatellites, launched for less than $10 million apiece (for example, Canada's MOST space telescope), will probably play an important role in these discoveries by allowing astronomers more time for otherwise low-priority experiments. Upon its launch around 2011, NASA's James Webb Space Telescope will study the origins of the universe using infrared sensors, if its progress is not hampered by further budget cuts and downsizing.

	Implications:	Better knowledge of our solar system and those yet unexplored Potential for discovery of extraterrestrial life Better understanding of the moments following the Big Bang Better understanding of the composition and history of Mars, Mercury, and Venus
	Early Indicators:	Construction by ESA of its Venus Express, using the same platform as the successful Mars Express Testing of an ion propulsion system by ESA's SMART-1 probe Wavering by NASA on rehabilitating the Hubble Space Telescope and its lack of planning for a direct replacement Cutting from NASA's 2006 budget of its Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter (JIMO), long planned as a testbed for advanced probe technology
	What to Watch:	An increasing number of scientific papers cite the Hubble Space Telescope rather than the International Space Station. US cuts funding for deep-space exploration, unmanned programs, and 'blue sky' projects.
	Parallels/Precedents:	'Better, Faster, Cheaper' era at NASA in the 1990s
	Enablers/drivers:	Expense and inefficiency of scientific experimentation on manned missions
	Leaders:	Regions: Europe (ESA) Japan (JAXA) Russia Institutions: Caltech Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) [link] British Interplanetary Society http://www.bis-spaceflight.com Kingston University, Astronautics and Space Research Group http://engineering.kingston.ac.uk/space/research/research.html Leicester University Space Research Centre http://www.src.le.ac.uk Mullard Space Science Laboratory, UCL http://www.mssl.ucl.ac.uk Open University Planetary and Space Science Research Institute http://pssri.open.ac.uk Surrey Space Centre http://www.ee.surrey.ac.uk/SSC/ ESA [link]
	Figures:
	Sources:	NASA, "The Vision for Space Exploration" February 2004 [link] Commission on Implementation of United States Space Exploration Policy, "Moon, Mars, and Beyond," June 2004 [link] Ceg?owski, Maciej. "A Rocket to Nowhere." Idle Words. 3 Aug 2005 [link] Peeters W and Jolly C, Evaluation of Future Space Markets [OECD http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/62/35/31825129.pdf] Space Robotics at the University of Wales [link] UK Space and Planetary Robotics Network [link] Unmanned spaceflight blog [link] For contrary views: Ian Crawford and Sarah Dunkin, " The scientific case for human spaceflight" Astronomy & Geophysics, Volume 42, Number 3, June 2001, pp. 3.33-3.34(8). "Procedings of The Scientific Case for Human Space Flight Symposium, UK National Astronomy Meeting, Cambridge, UK, 5 April, 2001" Earth, Moon and Planets Vol. 87(3), pp. 119-231, 2001.

	At A Glance:	When:	11-20 years
		Where:	Regional
		How Fast:	Years
		Likelihood:	High
		Impact:	Low
		Controversy:	Medium

Related Outlooks:

Posted at Jan 24/2007 02:11PM:
Giorgio Gaviraghi I believe that in the near and mid term future unmanned space missions should play a much bigger role as developers of future manned missions as well as further space exploration. With more advanced robotics development, nanotech products and reduced equipment dimensions, missions can be more complex and achieve much better results than corresponding manned missions at a fraction of their costs, without risking human lives and in a much shorter time. For that reason and , considering that we are still basing our space strategy as an earth based one, meaning everything proceeding from the bottom of a deep gravity well we must give top priority to unmanned missions by developing better and more advanced technologies that can pursue space development in a shorter time and at much affordable costs. The next steps should be to create unmanned mobile stations that , equipped with robots for advanced mobility, could explore the surface of most bodies and send back detailed information for years at a fraction of the costs of manned missions.