Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Space Sciences
Keywords:	Space science & Astronomy - exploration, spaceflight, Space Shuttle, Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV), International Space Station
Outlook:	Within Earth's orbit, manned spaceflight may be driven by space tourism and Chinese nationalism. NASA's manned spaceflight endeavours will probably focus on its plans for a manned mission to the moon, but China may beat them to it.
Summary Analysis:	After years without clear direction, NASA received a new mandate with the Bush administration's 2004 Vision for Space Exploration. After retiring the Space Shuttle and completing the International Space Station by 2010, NASA plans to direct its resources to launching a manned mission to the moon by 2020. The International Space Station, according to NASA budget proposals, will reorient its research from a range of biological and physical research projects and will instead be used to test the effects of radiation and low-gravity environments on humans. The Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV), a Space Shuttle replacement to be launched sometime within the next decade, will emphasize transportation over scientific experiments. Initial versions will be used for missions in low Earth orbit starting in 2011. By 2018, NASA plans to use modified versions for lunar exploration. Less certain and further on the horizon, NASA may use technologies and skills developed for lunar exploration to send a manned mission to Mars sometime around 2030. China remains manned space exploration's unknown quantity. Though current Chinese plans call for a Mir-class space station and various reusable vehicles by 2020, the Chinese could instead race the US to the moon (or even Mars) as national pride may allow the country to tolerate greater financial and human risk. Future Chinese moon missions are greatly dependent upon modifications to the country's Long March rockets, which would need to carry heavy lunar landers and orbiters. These 'CZ-5' rockets could be ready within 5 years, according to space analyst James Oberg, with a manned mission to the moon possible 5 years thereafter. A Chinese lunar mission, therefore, could nearly coincide with -- if not precede -- NASA's manned mission to the moon in the 2018 to 2020 timeframe.

	Implications:	Increasing availability to civilians of the experience of spaceflight Vastly improved safety for space travelers Potential for every country in the world to have its own astronauts Better understanding of factors impacting human health in space Potential for a manned lunar outpost to offer more versatility than and thus limit the importance of the International Space Station
	Early Indicators:	Launching of its first manned space mission (Shenzhou 5, manned by astronaut Yang Liwei) by the People's Republic of China on October 15, 2003 Announcement in 2004 by the US Bush administration of a new Vision for Space Exploration Completion of the first manned private spaceflight in June 2004 by SpaceShipOne, which went on to win the $10 million Ansari X PRIZE in October 2004 by meeting its requirements 'to create a reusable aircraft that can launch three passengers into suborbital space, return them safely home, then repeat the launch within two weeks with the same vehicle' Announcement in September 2004 by Richard Branson that his Virgin Group of Companies plans to offer commercial spaceflights through its new Virgin Galactic arm by the end of 2010 Announcement in July 2005 by Richard Branson and Burt Rutan (President, Scaled Composites) of their signing of an agreement to form a new aerospace production company to build a fleet of commercial sub-orbital spaceships and launch aircraft
	What to Watch:	The first commercial spaceflight gets off the ground. Chinese astronauts reach the moon. The Space Shuttle retires and the Crew Exploration Vehicle is launched.
	Parallels/Precedents:	Development of the Apollo space program Colonization of North America
	Enablers/drivers:	National pride, both American and Chinese Infusion of capital from private sources to develop a commercial spaceflight programme Offering of the X PRIZE Cup by the X PRIZE Foundation, an educational nonprofit prize institute whose mission is to create radical breakthroughs in space and technology for the benefit of humanity, in conjunction with the state of New Mexico, which plans to develop a Southwestern Regional Spaceport
	Leaders:	Regions: US (NASA), China, Europe (ESA), Japan (JAXA), Russia Institutions: Virgin Galactic (plans to offer commercial spaceflights) [link] X PRIZE Foundation British National Space Centre [link] British Interplanetary Society [link] International Astronautical Federation [link] International Space University, Strasbourg [link]
	Figures:
	Sources:	"Virgin Galactic to Offer Public Space Flights." September 2004, space.com [link] David, L. "SpaceShipOne Makes History with First Manned Private Spaceflight." 21 June 2004, space.com. Ceg?owski, Maciej. "A Rocket to Nowhere." Idle Words. 3 Aug 2005. [link] The Vision for Space Exploration. NASA. February 2004. [link] "Moon, Mars, and Beyond... Report of the President's Commission on Implementation of United States Space Exploration Policy." June 2004. Rees, Martin. "Mars needs millionaires: why future space exploration should be left to rich thrill seekers." Foreign Policy, July-August 2003 p90(2). "Hearing Charter: NASA FY 2006 Budget Proposal." Committee on Science, US House of Representatives. 17 Feb 2005. [link] "Testimony of James Oberg." Senate Science, Technology, and Space Hearing: International Space Exploration Program. 24 April 2004 Ian Crawford and Sarah Dunkin, " The scientific case for human spaceflight" Astronomy & Geophysics, Volume 42, Number 3, June 2001, pp. 3.33-3.34(8). "Procedings of The Scientific Case for Human Space Flight Symposium, UK National Astronomy Meeting, Cambridge, UK, 5 April, 2001" Earth, Moon and Planets Vol. 87(3), pp. 119-231, 2001. European Manned Spaceflight [link] Houston, We have a problem: China and the Race to Space, Joan Johnson-Freeze, Current History, 2003 Human spaceflight: achievements, benefits and future opportunities from a European perspective, Earth Moon and Planets, Vol 94 nos 3-4, 185-212 Ian Crawford and Sarah Dunkin, " The scientific case for human spaceflight" Astronomy & Geophysics, Volume 42, Number 3, June 2001, pp. 3.33-3.34(8) P Favata and N Martineau, Fast Access to Space Tourism, IAF Abstracts, 34th Cospar Scientific Assembly, Houston 10-19 October 2002 Patrick Collins: Meeting the Needs of the New Millennium: Passenger Space Travel and World Economic Growth, Space Policy Vol 10 no 3, 183-197, 2002

	At A Glance:	When:	11–20 years
		Where:	Global
		How Fast:	Years
		Likelihood:	High
		Impact:	Medium-High
		Controversy:	High

Related Outlooks:

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