Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Space Sciences, Energy
Keywords:	Energy - natural resources, space
Outlook:	The moon's rich mineral deposits and other natural resources may one day be mined to fuel space exploration throughout our solar system and provide energy for Earth.
Summary Analysis:	According to the 'Big Whack' theory of the moon's origin, some 4.5 billion years ago the moon formed from the debris of a collision between the young Earth and another nascent planet about the size of Mars. As a result, the moon has much the same composition as Earth's mantle. Aluminium, titanium, magnesium, silicon, iron, and carbon are all present, along with substantial amounts of oxygen and hydrogen locked within the lunar soil. These raw materials could be used in the manufacture of everything from base station modules to rocket fuel for further space exploration. The moon is particularly well suited for rocket fuel production: mixing raw hydrogen with lunar soil could provide a crude chemical energy source for missions to Mars and elsewhere. Since moon launches require only a fraction of the energy needed by vehicles to escape Earth's gravitational pull, even the most primitive fuel systems could work for moon-based, near-Earth expeditions. Once established, a lunar colony could also produce solar cells to fuel itself and perhaps even return energy to Earth. Large solar farms in direct, constant sunlight could beam energy to Earth via large microwave antennas and provide enough energy to power all of Earth by 2050, according to David Criswell. The moon also contains many times the supply of helium-3 that we have here on Earth. If effective fusion power becomes feasible at some point in the future, the moon could be a cost effective way to obtain the necessary helium-3. According to former Apollo astronaut Harrison Schmitt, one tonne of helium-3 could be returned to Earth at a cost of roughly $1 billion. Sold at $4 billion, fusion power derived from this helium would be price-competitive with oil at $30/barrel.

	Implications:	Cleaner, more plentiful energy, especially using solar installations Potential for cost-effective, manned exploration of Mars Potential for scientific by-products such as moon-based supertelescopes and research centres, resulting from the economic incentive and ecological imperative for a continuously manned outpost on the moon
	Early Indicators:	William C. Brown's 1964 invention of the rectenna, a device that converts microwave beams into electrical power Demonstration in lab settings that microwave antennae have nearly 90% energy efficiency Intention of ITER -- an international project involving China, the European Union and Switzerland (represented by Euratom), Japan, the Republic of Korea, the Russian Federation, and the US, under the auspices of the IAEA -- to build a demonstration fusion reactor by 2016 Third-World 'simple solar' efforts
	What to Watch:	Modifications are made to the Outer Space Treaty of 1967. Advances are made in microwave energy safety technology. Breakthroughs are made in fusion technology. ExxonMobil, BP, and other private industry announce initiatives to begin exploring the possibility of mining the moon.
	Parallels/Precedents:	Colonization of North America
	Enablers/drivers:	Growing terrestrial energy demand George W. Bush's 2004 Vision for Space Exploration, which includes manned moon missions by 2020 and missions to Mars sometime thereafter
	Leaders:	Institutions: US NASA Fusion Technology Institute, University of Wisconsin-Madison (work of Gerald L. Kulcinski) Department of Planetary Sciences, University of Arizona (work of Dr. John S. Lewis) Institute for Space Systems Operations, University of Houston (work of David R. Criswell, director) ITER [link] Organisations British Interplanetary Society http://www.bis-spaceflight.com Royal Astronomical Society http://www.ras.org.uk Particle Physics and Astronomy Research Council (UK) http://www.pparc.ac.uk
	Figures:
	Sources:	Schmitt, Harrison. "Mining the moon: an Apollo astronaut argues that with its vast stores of nonpolluting nuclear fuel, our lunar neighbor holds the key to Earth's future." Popular Mechanics (Oct 2004) v181, i10: p56(8). Wylie, Margie. "Don't Look to the Moon to Meet U.S. Energy Needs Just Yet." Newhouse News Services. 28 January 2004. "Testimony of Professor John S. Lewis before the subcommittee on Space and Technology of the House Committee on Science and Aeronautics" "Getting power from the moon." American Institute of Physics. Press Release. 15 April 2002 [link] Hoffert, Martin I. and Seth D. Potter. "Beam It Down." Technology Review. October 1997 [link] Dry Observer Moon Mining Blog [link] Building a Better Moonbase [link] China Moon Mining scheme [link] European Moon Exploitation Conference [link] Helium Mining on the Moon [link] Nasa plan for return to Moon [link] UK involvement in Moon mission [link]

	At A Glance:	When:	21-50+ years
		Where:	Global
		How Fast:	Years
		Likelihood:	Medium
		Impact:	Medium-Low
		Controversy:	High

Related Outlooks:

Posted at Dec 20/2006 10:08AM:
Giorgio Gaviraghi I believe that the Moon , for the utilization of its resources , must not have our priority. The Moon is at the bottom of a gravity well, as is Earth and at the actual state of technology any initiative will prove unaffordable and excessively costly to be valid . I believe that priority should be given to NEOs asteroid, that can provide resources and materials at a fraction of the cost and efforts as those of lunar origin. Priority should be given to asteroid research, deflection and utilization systems. Asteroids , properly deflected in a cycler trajectory, as Earth-Moon or Earth-Mars and properly equipped , could provide low cost accessibility to both bodies. Only when such infrastructural and transportation systems wil be available the Moon and Mars could be reached , utilized and colonized at affordable costs and with credible business plans.

Posted at Jan 11/2007 05:15AM:
Simon Bunn: I heartily agree with Giorgio Gaviraghi's suggestion and cite 'Mining the Sky' by John S. Lewis as an authorative document on the subject of asteroid exploitation. NASA take note!