Delta Scan: The Future of Science and Technology, 2005-2055: From Brain Drain to Brain Circulation

Key Pages

Category:
Science and Technology

Domain:
Structure of Science, Geography of Science

Keywords:
Knowledge, communication & learning - globalisation, brain drain, brain circulation, scientific careers

Outlook:
The 20th-century phenomenon of 'brain drain', of scientific and engineering talent emigrating from developing countries to North America and Europe, is likely to be replaced by 'brain circulation', in which globally mobile scientists and engineers work for shorter periods in a wider range of countries.

Summary Analysis:
Science and engineering have been mobile activities for some time. In the last few decades, much of the world's scientific and technical migration has consisted of movement between developed countries, and from the developing to the developed world - or, as it has come to be known, 'brain drain'. But in recent years, a new pattern of 'brain circulation', pioneered by Taiwan and South Korea, has emerged. In brain circulation, students or young scientists go abroad for training or to start their careers. They build professional networks with colleagues in multiple countries and use these networks both for professional advancement and to help build research programs and the scientific infrastructure of the home country. Some of these scientists eventually emigrate back home, while others become permanent expatriates but with permanent ties to their countries of birth.

The brain circulation phenomenon has been driven by two major trends:

The growing appeal of developing countries as destinations for research and entrepreneurship. Some of the 20th century's largest exporters of scientific talent are becoming more attractive places to build scientific and technical careers. Some countries that have sent large numbers of graduate students abroad, such as China, are developing domestic graduate programs. Taiwan and South Korea bring back more than 80% of the students who receive PhDs in the US. Some statistics indicate that much reverse migration of Chinese, Indian, and Taiwanese scientists has been driven by pursuit of entrepreneurial opportunity. Some of these scientists are starting businesses, attracted by the same factors that have driven the outsourcing movement -- a skilled workforce, low labour costs, and low overheads. Chinese and Indian engineers who made careers in Silicon Valley have played a key role in the growth of their home countries' IT sectors. And while 20 years ago being Indian or Chinese offered little competitive advantage in the Valley, today it is seen as an indicator of useful global commercial and professional connections.

The slow flattening of labor markets in science and technology. Korean multinationals have recently had notable success recruiting senior scientists and engineers who built careers in the US and Europe, exemplifying the advantages of flatter labor markets for scientists and engineers. In some countries, brain circulation has allowed smaller companies to attract talent superior to what they otherwise could acquire (or afford). Mid-level Japanese and Korean companies have a difficult time competing with corporate giants like Sony and Samsung for graduates of elite national universities; they find it easier to recruit PhDs. Japanese companies now employ thousands of Chinese, Indian, and Taiwanese expatriates; Korean companies have turned to China and Russia for engineering expertise.

A smaller portion of the brain circulation phenomenon consists of world-class Western scientists being recruited to developing countries, or non-Westerners returning home with plans to build world-class institutions. In the former case, Singapore and South Korea have both recently aggressively recruited American and European Nobel laureates to their universities and research institutes. Many emerging countries and niche scientific players have demonstrated considerable interest in attracting Western researchers.

Implications:

Broadening of the geography of opportunity for researchers
Diminished opportunity for a growing number of young scientists trained in the US and Europe to build careers in their home countries (particularly in academic science, where competition for tenured professorships is enormous)

Early Indicators:

The return of 4,900 Chinese scientists from abroad to Beijing's Zhongguancun Science Park in the late 1990s and early 2000, starting some 1,800 new companies by 2002
Increase in PhD production in China from fewer than 200 in 1986 to more than 7,000 degrees granted in 1999
Organization by Brazilian-born brain scientist Miguel Nicolesis, a neuroscientist at Duke University in the US, of a neuroscience research institute in the Brazilian state of Natal
Relocation by a small number of European scientists, mainly in the field of biological sciences, to developing countries

What to Watch:

Eminent scientists move from elite American and European universities to institutions in the developing world.
The number of international scientists training in American and European universities declines.

Parallels/Precedents:

Global migration of many other kinds of professionals and skilled laborers, ranging from financial consultants to nurses to soldiers

Enablers/drivers:

Efforts to boost innovation and to draw closer links between science and the marketplace
Aging of the European, American, and Japanese populations, and the relative youth of populations in developing countries, which could create a demand in traditional scientific metropoles for foreign talent

Leaders:
Regions:

Taiwan
South Korea
Brazil
International Migration Branch, International Labour Organisation [link]
International Organisation for Migration [link]
Transfer of Knowledge Through Expatriate Nationals (TOKTEN), UNDP [link]
Centre on Migration Policy and Society, Oxford University [link]
Institute for Public Policy Research, UK [link]
Centre for the Study of Indian Diaspora [link]
Zakir Husain Centre for Educational Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, India [link]
Asian Development Bank [link]
Society of Chinese Bioscientists in America [link]

Figures:

Sources:

Diehl, Claudia and David Dixon. New Research Challenges Notion of German "Brain Drain." Migration Information Source (August 1, 2005). [link]
Mahroum, Sami. "Highly Skilled Globetrotters: The International Migration of Human Capital." OECD Workshop on Science and Technology Labour Markets (1999). [link]
Rowen, Henry. "Some Key Factors in China's Remarkable Rise in the Technologies of Information." Written testimony before the U.S. China Economic and Security Review Commission, April 21-22, 2005. [link]
Saxenian, AnnaLee. "The Bangalore Boom: From Brain Drain to Brain Circulation?" in Kenneth Kenniston and Deepak Kumar, eds., Bridging the Digital Divide: Lessons from India (Bangalore: National Institute of Advanced Study, 2000). [link]
Saxenian, AnnaLee. "Brain Circulation: How High-Skill Immigration Makes Everyone Better Off." Brookings Review 20 (Winter 2002), 28-31.
Weisman, Robert. "High-tech talent flows back to India." Boston Globe. 8 Aug 2005. [link]
"Reverse Brain Drain: the Lure of Latin America." SciDev.Net. Aug 2003 [link]
"Skilled Labour Migration from Developing Countries: Analysis of Impact and Policy Issues." Department for International Development, UK and International Labour Organisation [link]
"Diasporas Scientifiques." Mayer, Jean-Baptiste, Institute of Research for Development, France [link]

At A Glance:
When:
0-2 years

Where:
Global

How Fast:
Years

Likelihood:
Medium-High

Impact:
Medium-Low

Controversy:
Low

Related Outlooks:

About this outlook: An outlook is an internally consistent, plausible view of the future based on the best expertise available. It is not a prediction of the future. The AT-A-GLANCE ratings suggest the scope, scale, and uncertainty associated with this outlook. Each outlook is also a working document, with contributors adding comments and edits to improve the forecast over time. Please see the revision history for earlier versions.

Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Structure of Science, Geography of Science
Keywords:	Knowledge, communication & learning - globalisation, brain drain, brain circulation, scientific careers
Outlook:	The 20th-century phenomenon of 'brain drain', of scientific and engineering talent emigrating from developing countries to North America and Europe, is likely to be replaced by 'brain circulation', in which globally mobile scientists and engineers work for shorter periods in a wider range of countries.
Summary Analysis:	Science and engineering have been mobile activities for some time. In the last few decades, much of the world's scientific and technical migration has consisted of movement between developed countries, and from the developing to the developed world - or, as it has come to be known, 'brain drain'. But in recent years, a new pattern of 'brain circulation', pioneered by Taiwan and South Korea, has emerged. In brain circulation, students or young scientists go abroad for training or to start their careers. They build professional networks with colleagues in multiple countries and use these networks both for professional advancement and to help build research programs and the scientific infrastructure of the home country. Some of these scientists eventually emigrate back home, while others become permanent expatriates but with permanent ties to their countries of birth. The brain circulation phenomenon has been driven by two major trends: The growing appeal of developing countries as destinations for research and entrepreneurship. Some of the 20th century's largest exporters of scientific talent are becoming more attractive places to build scientific and technical careers. Some countries that have sent large numbers of graduate students abroad, such as China, are developing domestic graduate programs. Taiwan and South Korea bring back more than 80% of the students who receive PhDs in the US. Some statistics indicate that much reverse migration of Chinese, Indian, and Taiwanese scientists has been driven by pursuit of entrepreneurial opportunity. Some of these scientists are starting businesses, attracted by the same factors that have driven the outsourcing movement -- a skilled workforce, low labour costs, and low overheads. Chinese and Indian engineers who made careers in Silicon Valley have played a key role in the growth of their home countries' IT sectors. And while 20 years ago being Indian or Chinese offered little competitive advantage in the Valley, today it is seen as an indicator of useful global commercial and professional connections. The slow flattening of labor markets in science and technology. Korean multinationals have recently had notable success recruiting senior scientists and engineers who built careers in the US and Europe, exemplifying the advantages of flatter labor markets for scientists and engineers. In some countries, brain circulation has allowed smaller companies to attract talent superior to what they otherwise could acquire (or afford). Mid-level Japanese and Korean companies have a difficult time competing with corporate giants like Sony and Samsung for graduates of elite national universities; they find it easier to recruit PhDs. Japanese companies now employ thousands of Chinese, Indian, and Taiwanese expatriates; Korean companies have turned to China and Russia for engineering expertise. A smaller portion of the brain circulation phenomenon consists of world-class Western scientists being recruited to developing countries, or non-Westerners returning home with plans to build world-class institutions. In the former case, Singapore and South Korea have both recently aggressively recruited American and European Nobel laureates to their universities and research institutes. Many emerging countries and niche scientific players have demonstrated considerable interest in attracting Western researchers.

	Implications:	Broadening of the geography of opportunity for researchers Diminished opportunity for a growing number of young scientists trained in the US and Europe to build careers in their home countries (particularly in academic science, where competition for tenured professorships is enormous)
	Early Indicators:	The return of 4,900 Chinese scientists from abroad to Beijing's Zhongguancun Science Park in the late 1990s and early 2000, starting some 1,800 new companies by 2002 Increase in PhD production in China from fewer than 200 in 1986 to more than 7,000 degrees granted in 1999 Organization by Brazilian-born brain scientist Miguel Nicolesis, a neuroscientist at Duke University in the US, of a neuroscience research institute in the Brazilian state of Natal Relocation by a small number of European scientists, mainly in the field of biological sciences, to developing countries
	What to Watch:	Eminent scientists move from elite American and European universities to institutions in the developing world. The number of international scientists training in American and European universities declines.
	Parallels/Precedents:	Global migration of many other kinds of professionals and skilled laborers, ranging from financial consultants to nurses to soldiers
	Enablers/drivers:	Efforts to boost innovation and to draw closer links between science and the marketplace Aging of the European, American, and Japanese populations, and the relative youth of populations in developing countries, which could create a demand in traditional scientific metropoles for foreign talent
	Leaders:	Regions: Taiwan South Korea Brazil International Migration Branch, International Labour Organisation [link] International Organisation for Migration [link] Transfer of Knowledge Through Expatriate Nationals (TOKTEN), UNDP [link] Centre on Migration Policy and Society, Oxford University [link] Institute for Public Policy Research, UK [link] Centre for the Study of Indian Diaspora [link] Zakir Husain Centre for Educational Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, India [link] Asian Development Bank [link] Society of Chinese Bioscientists in America [link]
	Figures:
	Sources:	Diehl, Claudia and David Dixon. New Research Challenges Notion of German "Brain Drain." Migration Information Source (August 1, 2005). [link] Mahroum, Sami. "Highly Skilled Globetrotters: The International Migration of Human Capital." OECD Workshop on Science and Technology Labour Markets (1999). [link] Rowen, Henry. "Some Key Factors in China's Remarkable Rise in the Technologies of Information." Written testimony before the U.S. China Economic and Security Review Commission, April 21-22, 2005. [link] Saxenian, AnnaLee. "The Bangalore Boom: From Brain Drain to Brain Circulation?" in Kenneth Kenniston and Deepak Kumar, eds., Bridging the Digital Divide: Lessons from India (Bangalore: National Institute of Advanced Study, 2000). [link] Saxenian, AnnaLee. "Brain Circulation: How High-Skill Immigration Makes Everyone Better Off." Brookings Review 20 (Winter 2002), 28-31. Weisman, Robert. "High-tech talent flows back to India." Boston Globe. 8 Aug 2005. [link] "Reverse Brain Drain: the Lure of Latin America." SciDev.Net. Aug 2003 [link] "Skilled Labour Migration from Developing Countries: Analysis of Impact and Policy Issues." Department for International Development, UK and International Labour Organisation [link] "Diasporas Scientifiques." Mayer, Jean-Baptiste, Institute of Research for Development, France [link]

At A Glance:	When:	0-2 years
	Where:	Global
	How Fast:	Years
	Likelihood:	Medium-High
	Impact:	Medium-Low
	Controversy:	Low