Delta Scan: The Future of Science and Technology, 2005-2055: Technological Mitigation for Climate Change

Key Pages

Category:
Science and Technology

Domain:
Ecology and Earth Sciences

Keywords:
Climate Change Mitigation - climate change, global warming, migration, weather, carbon sequestration

Outlook:
As technologies to mitigate the climate change that now seems inevitable are developed, their availability will probably vary widely across regions and nations. The developed world may be capable of dealing with localized impacts in the next 50 years, while the developing world will struggle to cope with widespread challenges.

Summary Analysis:
The current consensus amongst climate researchers suggests that there will be an increase in global average temperature of 2 to 5 degrees centigrade by the middle of the 21st century and that the consequences of global warming include the following:

Animal and plant migrations
Rising sea levels
Extreme hurricanes, floods, droughts, and forest fires

While higher temperatures will affect the entire world, the negative consequences are expected to be highly localized. In developed nations, the impacts of climate change may be managed and mitigated (in part) through rapid technological innovation. Potential mitigating technologies include prediction of extreme weather events, high-efficiency air conditioning, carbon sequestration, genetic modification of crops, the erection of barriers against rising sea levels, weather control, and relocation of population centres away from the coasts.

In developing countries, advanced technologies may not be available or affordable, and megaprojects for energy or mitigation may not be feasible. For example, Bangladesh is likely to be extremely affected by rising sea levels but lacks the resources to develop extensive physical protections like those being considered in the Netherlands and Venice, suggesting the possibility of a massive, chaotic forced migration of urban populations away from coastal floodplains. In large areas of sub-Saharan Africa, climate change is likely to severely increase the likelihood of famine for regions that depend upon subsistence farming.

Implications:

Accentuated economic divide between rich and poor nations
Increasing expenditures required for adaptation (projected to be 2–4% of global output)
In countries that can afford technological mitigation, continuation of habits (such as high consumption of fossil fuels) that contribute to global warming

Early Indicators:

Sea barriers being considered for Venice's lagoon

What to Watch:

Widespread shifts in crop choices are made in 'breadbasket' regions.
First city is abandoned due to rising sea levels.

Parallels/Precedents:

Enablers/drivers:

Expansion of techological research and development
Creation of business opportunities
Formulation of risk mitigation strategies by insurance companies

Leaders:
Regions:

Netherlands

Institutions:

National Center for Atmospheric Research [link]
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology [link]
National Aeronautics and Space Administration [link]
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [link]
US Department of Energy (Carbon sequestration) [link]
Carbon Trust (UK) [link]
Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum [link]
UK Foresight project on Flood and Coastal Defence, 2004 [link]
The insurance industry worldwide, eg Georisks material from Munich Re [link]

Figures:

Sources:

"Science Workshop." Institute for the Future. Palo Alto, CA. 27 July 2005.
Ten Year Forecast.. "Environment: Weather Betting". Palo Alto, CA: Institute for the Future. 27 July 2005.
WWF International. 2005. "Background Brief - Technology and Climate Change" [link]
City Mayors, Cities at Risk of Flooding, 2006 [link]
Geir B Asheim et al, Regional versus global cooperation for climate control, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 51, 93-109, 2006
Claudia Kemfert and ZhongXiang Zhang, Linking Developing Country's Cooperation on Climate Control with Industrialised Country's R&D and technology transfer, IIASA 2003 [link]
Klaus Keller et al, Avoiding Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with the Climate System, Climatic Change, 73, 227-238, 2005 [link]
Sir David King (chief scientific adviser, UK government), Climate Change Science: Adapt, Mitigate or Ignore? Science 303 176-177, 2004 [link]
John H Alic et al, US Technology and Innovation Policies: Lessons for Climate Change, Pew Centre on Global Climate Change 2003 [link]
Cedric Philibert, International Energy Technology Collaboration and Climate Change Mitigation, OECD 2004 [link]
Richard Newell and Nathan Wilson, Technology Prizes for Climate Change Mitigation, Resources for the Future, 2004 [link]
Martin Hoffert et al, Advanced Techology Paths to Global Climate Stability: Energy for a Greenhouse Planet, Science, 298, 981-987, 2002 [link]

At A Glance:
When:
3-10 years

Where:
Global

How Fast:
Years

Likelihood:
Medium-High

Impact:
Medium-Low

Controversy:
High

Related Outlooks:

About this outlook: An outlook is an internally consistent, plausible view of the future based on the best expertise available. It is not a prediction of the future. The AT-A-GLANCE ratings suggest the scope, scale, and uncertainty associated with this outlook. Each outlook is also a working document, with contributors adding comments and edits to improve the forecast over time. Please see the revision history for earlier versions.

Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Ecology and Earth Sciences
Keywords:	Climate Change Mitigation - climate change, global warming, migration, weather, carbon sequestration
Outlook:	As technologies to mitigate the climate change that now seems inevitable are developed, their availability will probably vary widely across regions and nations. The developed world may be capable of dealing with localized impacts in the next 50 years, while the developing world will struggle to cope with widespread challenges.
Summary Analysis:	The current consensus amongst climate researchers suggests that there will be an increase in global average temperature of 2 to 5 degrees centigrade by the middle of the 21st century and that the consequences of global warming include the following: Animal and plant migrations Rising sea levels Extreme hurricanes, floods, droughts, and forest fires While higher temperatures will affect the entire world, the negative consequences are expected to be highly localized. In developed nations, the impacts of climate change may be managed and mitigated (in part) through rapid technological innovation. Potential mitigating technologies include prediction of extreme weather events, high-efficiency air conditioning, carbon sequestration, genetic modification of crops, the erection of barriers against rising sea levels, weather control, and relocation of population centres away from the coasts. In developing countries, advanced technologies may not be available or affordable, and megaprojects for energy or mitigation may not be feasible. For example, Bangladesh is likely to be extremely affected by rising sea levels but lacks the resources to develop extensive physical protections like those being considered in the Netherlands and Venice, suggesting the possibility of a massive, chaotic forced migration of urban populations away from coastal floodplains. In large areas of sub-Saharan Africa, climate change is likely to severely increase the likelihood of famine for regions that depend upon subsistence farming.

	Implications:	Accentuated economic divide between rich and poor nations Increasing expenditures required for adaptation (projected to be 2–4% of global output) In countries that can afford technological mitigation, continuation of habits (such as high consumption of fossil fuels) that contribute to global warming
	Early Indicators:	Sea barriers being considered for Venice's lagoon
	What to Watch:	Widespread shifts in crop choices are made in 'breadbasket' regions. First city is abandoned due to rising sea levels.
	Parallels/Precedents:
	Enablers/drivers:	Expansion of techological research and development Creation of business opportunities Formulation of risk mitigation strategies by insurance companies
	Leaders:	Regions: Netherlands Institutions: National Center for Atmospheric Research [link] Max Planck Institute for Meteorology [link] National Aeronautics and Space Administration [link] National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [link] US Department of Energy (Carbon sequestration) [link] Carbon Trust (UK) [link] Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum [link] UK Foresight project on Flood and Coastal Defence, 2004 [link] The insurance industry worldwide, eg Georisks material from Munich Re [link]
	Figures:
	Sources:	"Science Workshop." Institute for the Future. Palo Alto, CA. 27 July 2005. Ten Year Forecast.. "Environment: Weather Betting". Palo Alto, CA: Institute for the Future. 27 July 2005. WWF International. 2005. "Background Brief - Technology and Climate Change" [link] City Mayors, Cities at Risk of Flooding, 2006 [link] Geir B Asheim et al, Regional versus global cooperation for climate control, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 51, 93-109, 2006 Claudia Kemfert and ZhongXiang Zhang, Linking Developing Country's Cooperation on Climate Control with Industrialised Country's R&D and technology transfer, IIASA 2003 [link] Klaus Keller et al, Avoiding Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with the Climate System, Climatic Change, 73, 227-238, 2005 [link] Sir David King (chief scientific adviser, UK government), Climate Change Science: Adapt, Mitigate or Ignore? Science 303 176-177, 2004 [link] John H Alic et al, US Technology and Innovation Policies: Lessons for Climate Change, Pew Centre on Global Climate Change 2003 [link] Cedric Philibert, International Energy Technology Collaboration and Climate Change Mitigation, OECD 2004 [link] Richard Newell and Nathan Wilson, Technology Prizes for Climate Change Mitigation, Resources for the Future, 2004 [link] Martin Hoffert et al, Advanced Techology Paths to Global Climate Stability: Energy for a Greenhouse Planet, Science, 298, 981-987, 2002 [link]

At A Glance:	When:	3-10 years
	Where:	Global
	How Fast:	Years
	Likelihood:	Medium-High
	Impact:	Medium-Low
	Controversy:	High