Delta Scan: The Future of Science and Technology, 2005-2055: Seismological Modeling Transformed

Key Pages

Category:
Science and Technology

Domain:
Ecology and Earth Sciences

Keywords:
Earth Monitoring - earthquake, sensor, modeling, geophysics, seismology, sensor networks

Outlook:
Widely distributed sensor networks that will increase the amount and quality of data available to modellers may open new avenues of research in seismology.

Summary Analysis:
Currently in the US, most seismological research is conducted using data collected from regional networks of sensors that are 30 years old. Major government-funded seismological sensor network projects are under way (such as the US's Advanced National Seismic System and Japan's proposed undersea cable network of sensors). In addition, as motion sensors are now routinely deployed in new buildings, roads and infrastructure, seismologists will increasingly be able to supplement coarse-grained precision measurements of seismological events with numerous fine-grained measurements. This rich new data will bring benefits for the forensic science of earthquake detection and improve the modelling and prediction of future events.

Implications:

Better earthquake prediction
Better understanding of earthquake hazard zones
Better understanding of structural failures and successes within buildings

Early Indicators:

Ongoing seismic monitoring of the Factor Building at UCLA with 72 wireless seismometers
Spur to improve detection after the December 26, 2004 earthquake and tsunami

What to Watch:

The first large skyscraper with wireless seismic sensors throughout is constructed.
Research consortia form to aggregate distributed seismic data.

Parallels/Precedents:

Large-scale ecosystem sensing

Enablers/drivers:

Further development of wireless sensor motes / smart dust
Upgraded building codes
Security concerns that lead to more remote monitoring of infrastructure

Leaders:
Regions:

Pacific Rim (California, Japan)

Institutions:

Center for Embedded Network Sensing, UCLA (work of Deborah Estrin)
Keio University, Japan
UCSD High Performance Wireless Research and Education Network [link]
California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology [link]
European Space Agency GOCE Project [link]
Jaxa (Japanese space agency) [link]
University of Tokyo, Ocean Hemisphere Network Project [link]
University of Tokyo, Department of Frontier Informatics [link]
AIST Japan [link]
Imperial College, London [link]
Centre for the Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes and Tectonics (COMET, UK) [link]
Australian National University, Centre for Advanced Data Inference [link]

Figures:

Sources:

ANSI - Advanced National Seismic System. "USGS Earthquake Hazards Program." [link]
Delin, K. A., and S. P. Jackson. 2001. "The sensor web: A new instrument concept." NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. [link]
Glaser, S. D., R. A. Shoureshi, and D Pescovitz. 2005. "Frontiers in senors and sensing systems." Smart Structures and Systems 1, no 1.
Shirasaki, Y., T. Nishida, M. Yoshida, Y. Horiuchi, J. Muramatsu, M. Tamaya, K. Kawaguchi, and K. Asakawa. "Proposal of next-generation real-time seafloor globe monitoring cable-network." [link]
"Wires make wireless strain gauge." 2003. Technology Research News. [link]
Bennett Richardson, Japan's High-Tech Approach to Tsunami Detection, SciDevNet/Christian Science Monitor, 29 December 2004 [link]
Yunfeng Zhang, Smart Structures, with a focus on civil infrastructure applications, July 2004 [link]
Jeremy Elson and Deborah Estrin, Sensor Networks: A Bridge to the Physical World, 2004 [link]
Instrumenting the World, Intel 2006 [link]

At A Glance:
When:
11–20 years

Where:
Global

How Fast:
Years

Likelihood:
Medium

Impact:
Low

Controversy:
Low

Related Outlooks:

About this outlook: An outlook is an internally consistent, plausible view of the future based on the best expertise available. It is not a prediction of the future. The AT-A-GLANCE ratings suggest the scope, scale, and uncertainty associated with this outlook. Each outlook is also a working document, with contributors adding comments and edits to improve the forecast over time. Please see the revision history for earlier versions.

Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Ecology and Earth Sciences
Keywords:	Earth Monitoring - earthquake, sensor, modeling, geophysics, seismology, sensor networks
Outlook:	Widely distributed sensor networks that will increase the amount and quality of data available to modellers may open new avenues of research in seismology.
Summary Analysis:	Currently in the US, most seismological research is conducted using data collected from regional networks of sensors that are 30 years old. Major government-funded seismological sensor network projects are under way (such as the US's Advanced National Seismic System and Japan's proposed undersea cable network of sensors). In addition, as motion sensors are now routinely deployed in new buildings, roads and infrastructure, seismologists will increasingly be able to supplement coarse-grained precision measurements of seismological events with numerous fine-grained measurements. This rich new data will bring benefits for the forensic science of earthquake detection and improve the modelling and prediction of future events.

	Implications:	Better earthquake prediction Better understanding of earthquake hazard zones Better understanding of structural failures and successes within buildings
	Early Indicators:	Ongoing seismic monitoring of the Factor Building at UCLA with 72 wireless seismometers Spur to improve detection after the December 26, 2004 earthquake and tsunami
	What to Watch:	The first large skyscraper with wireless seismic sensors throughout is constructed. Research consortia form to aggregate distributed seismic data.
	Parallels/Precedents:	Large-scale ecosystem sensing
	Enablers/drivers:	Further development of wireless sensor motes / smart dust Upgraded building codes Security concerns that lead to more remote monitoring of infrastructure
	Leaders:	Regions: Pacific Rim (California, Japan) Institutions: Center for Embedded Network Sensing, UCLA (work of Deborah Estrin) Keio University, Japan UCSD High Performance Wireless Research and Education Network [link] California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology [link] European Space Agency GOCE Project [link] Jaxa (Japanese space agency) [link] University of Tokyo, Ocean Hemisphere Network Project [link] University of Tokyo, Department of Frontier Informatics [link] AIST Japan [link] Imperial College, London [link] Centre for the Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes and Tectonics (COMET, UK) [link] Australian National University, Centre for Advanced Data Inference [link]
	Figures:
	Sources:	ANSI - Advanced National Seismic System. "USGS Earthquake Hazards Program." [link] Delin, K. A., and S. P. Jackson. 2001. "The sensor web: A new instrument concept." NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. [link] Glaser, S. D., R. A. Shoureshi, and D Pescovitz. 2005. "Frontiers in senors and sensing systems." Smart Structures and Systems 1, no 1. Shirasaki, Y., T. Nishida, M. Yoshida, Y. Horiuchi, J. Muramatsu, M. Tamaya, K. Kawaguchi, and K. Asakawa. "Proposal of next-generation real-time seafloor globe monitoring cable-network." [link] "Wires make wireless strain gauge." 2003. Technology Research News. [link] Bennett Richardson, Japan's High-Tech Approach to Tsunami Detection, SciDevNet/Christian Science Monitor, 29 December 2004 [link] Yunfeng Zhang, Smart Structures, with a focus on civil infrastructure applications, July 2004 [link] Jeremy Elson and Deborah Estrin, Sensor Networks: A Bridge to the Physical World, 2004 [link] Instrumenting the World, Intel 2006 [link]

At A Glance:	When:	11–20 years
	Where:	Global
	How Fast:	Years
	Likelihood:	Medium
	Impact:	Low
	Controversy:	Low