Delta Scan: The Future of Science and Technology, 2005-2055: Emergence of New Regional Innovation Clusters

Key Pages

Category:
Science and Technology

Domain:
Geography of Science

Keywords:
Knowledge, communication & learning - developing economies, China, India, Brazil, cities, regions, innovation, technopole

Outlook:
While existing science and technology centres continue to thrive, new regional innovation clusters are likely to develop in the emerging science powerhouses of China, India, and Brazil to maximise knowledge networks and economies of scale.

Summary Analysis:
In the 1970s and 1980s, regional science and technology clusters in the US and Japan dominated the landscape of innovation. Silicon Valley in California, and to a lesser extent the Kyoto region in Japan, maintained global leadership in science and technology. However, new 'technopoles' have continued to emerge. In the 1990s, as economic growth enabled a transition from heavy manufacturing to higher value-added industries such as semiconductors, new centers emerged in Taiwan and Korea. Elsewhere, such as the UK, universities have played an important role in seeding new clusters (such as Cambridge, England).

In the next 20 years, the most important new regional innovation clusters are likely to emerge in the rapidly developing economies of India, China, and Brazil, as groups of firms in these countries move up the value chain. While state policy, military contracts, and R&D investments will be an important enabling factor, these regions will probably not be centrally planned. On the contrary, unlike the 'science cities' of the past, these new regional clusters will emerge through individual interactions between universities, large corporations, entrepreneurs, and workers.

Implications:

Growing technological competitiveness of Chinese and Indian companies
Increasing shift by Brazil into a technologically driven development era

Early Indicators:

Development of software company clusters in Bangalore and Hyderabad, India
Investment by Brazil in Unicamp, a technical university

What to Watch:

The brain drain from India and China to Silicon Valley slows, stops, and then reverses.

Parallels/Precedents:

Emergence of a high-tech cluster around Cambridge, England, in the 1990s

Enablers/drivers:

Inflows of foreign capital into China, India, and Brazil
Increasing return home of émigré-entrepreneurs and managers
Development of new communications tools
Increasing infrastructure investments by states and the establishment of special economic zones
Loosening of regulatory barriers to capital flows, foreign ownership of companies, and venture financing
Increasing investments in education in China, India, and Brazil

Leaders:
Regions:

Andhra Pradesh, India
Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India [link]
Indian Institute of Technology [link]
Neuroscience research institute in Natal, Brazil
Hsinchu Science Park, Taiwan
Zhongguancun Science Park, China [link]
Chinese Academy of Sciences [link]
Xian High-tech Industries Development Zone, China

Figures:

Sources:

Peter Hall and Manuel Castells. 1994. Technopoles of the World. (Routledge: New York)
"Development of Technopoles in China," Shuguang Wang, Yulin Wu and Yujiang Li. Asia Pacific Viewpoint 39: 3 (1998).
Li Zhenzhen, Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, et al. "Health biotechnology in China—reawakening of a giant." Nature Biotechnology 22, DC13 - DC18 (2004) [link]
"China to Build 30 New Science and Technology Parks." SciDev.Net. April 19 2006 [link]
"Research Funding: China Gets Big on Big Science." Science. March 2006. [link]
The China Project, Chatham House, UK [link]
"Technopoles of India?" R Zand. New York University. [link]
Nandini K Kumar, Indian Council of Medical Research, et al. "Indian biotechnology—rapidly evolving and industry led." Nature Biotechnology 22, DC31 - DC36 (2004) [link]
Andhra Pradesh Technology Development and Promotion Centre, India [link]
India First Foundation [link]
National Institute of Advanced Studies, Rio de Janeiro [link]
Ferrer M. University of Chile et al. "The Scientific Muscle of Brazil's Health Biotechnology." Nature Biotechnology 22, DC8 - DC12 (2004) [link]
AnnaLee Saxenian. 1996. Regional Advantage: Culture and Competition in Silicon Valley and Route 128. (Cambridge: Harvard University Press)
Institute for Development Studies, UK [link]

At A Glance:
When:
3–10 years

Where:
Regional

How Fast:
Years

Likelihood:
High

Impact:
Medium-Low

Controversy:
Low

Related Outlooks:

About this outlook: An outlook is an internally consistent, plausible view of the future based on the best expertise available. It is not a prediction of the future. The AT-A-GLANCE ratings suggest the scope, scale, and uncertainty associated with this outlook. Each outlook is also a working document, with contributors adding comments and edits to improve the forecast over time. Please see the revision history for earlier versions.

Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Geography of Science
Keywords:	Knowledge, communication & learning - developing economies, China, India, Brazil, cities, regions, innovation, technopole
Outlook:	While existing science and technology centres continue to thrive, new regional innovation clusters are likely to develop in the emerging science powerhouses of China, India, and Brazil to maximise knowledge networks and economies of scale.
Summary Analysis:	In the 1970s and 1980s, regional science and technology clusters in the US and Japan dominated the landscape of innovation. Silicon Valley in California, and to a lesser extent the Kyoto region in Japan, maintained global leadership in science and technology. However, new 'technopoles' have continued to emerge. In the 1990s, as economic growth enabled a transition from heavy manufacturing to higher value-added industries such as semiconductors, new centers emerged in Taiwan and Korea. Elsewhere, such as the UK, universities have played an important role in seeding new clusters (such as Cambridge, England). In the next 20 years, the most important new regional innovation clusters are likely to emerge in the rapidly developing economies of India, China, and Brazil, as groups of firms in these countries move up the value chain. While state policy, military contracts, and R&D investments will be an important enabling factor, these regions will probably not be centrally planned. On the contrary, unlike the 'science cities' of the past, these new regional clusters will emerge through individual interactions between universities, large corporations, entrepreneurs, and workers.

	Implications:	Growing technological competitiveness of Chinese and Indian companies Increasing shift by Brazil into a technologically driven development era
	Early Indicators:	Development of software company clusters in Bangalore and Hyderabad, India Investment by Brazil in Unicamp, a technical university
	What to Watch:	The brain drain from India and China to Silicon Valley slows, stops, and then reverses.
	Parallels/Precedents:	Emergence of a high-tech cluster around Cambridge, England, in the 1990s
	Enablers/drivers:	Inflows of foreign capital into China, India, and Brazil Increasing return home of émigré-entrepreneurs and managers Development of new communications tools Increasing infrastructure investments by states and the establishment of special economic zones Loosening of regulatory barriers to capital flows, foreign ownership of companies, and venture financing Increasing investments in education in China, India, and Brazil
	Leaders:	Regions: Andhra Pradesh, India Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India [link] Indian Institute of Technology [link] Neuroscience research institute in Natal, Brazil Hsinchu Science Park, Taiwan Zhongguancun Science Park, China [link] Chinese Academy of Sciences [link] Xian High-tech Industries Development Zone, China
	Figures:
	Sources:	Peter Hall and Manuel Castells. 1994. Technopoles of the World. (Routledge: New York) "Development of Technopoles in China," Shuguang Wang, Yulin Wu and Yujiang Li. Asia Pacific Viewpoint 39: 3 (1998). Li Zhenzhen, Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, et al. "Health biotechnology in China—reawakening of a giant." Nature Biotechnology 22, DC13 - DC18 (2004) [link] "China to Build 30 New Science and Technology Parks." SciDev.Net. April 19 2006 [link] "Research Funding: China Gets Big on Big Science." Science. March 2006. [link] The China Project, Chatham House, UK [link] "Technopoles of India?" R Zand. New York University. [link] Nandini K Kumar, Indian Council of Medical Research, et al. "Indian biotechnology—rapidly evolving and industry led." Nature Biotechnology 22, DC31 - DC36 (2004) [link] Andhra Pradesh Technology Development and Promotion Centre, India [link] India First Foundation [link] National Institute of Advanced Studies, Rio de Janeiro [link] Ferrer M. University of Chile et al. "The Scientific Muscle of Brazil's Health Biotechnology." Nature Biotechnology 22, DC8 - DC12 (2004) [link] AnnaLee Saxenian. 1996. Regional Advantage: Culture and Competition in Silicon Valley and Route 128. (Cambridge: Harvard University Press) Institute for Development Studies, UK [link]

At A Glance:	When:	3–10 years
	Where:	Regional
	How Fast:	Years
	Likelihood:	High
	Impact:	Medium-Low
	Controversy:	Low