Delta Scan: The Future of Science and Technology, 2005-2055: Nanowires for Improved Circuits and Spacecraft

Key Pages

Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Nanotechnology, Materials
Keywords:	Nanotechnology - quantum, carbon nanotubes, electronics, space circuits, nanowires, nanoscale wires, nanoscopic wires
Outlook:	Nanoscale wires under development today promise to make electronic circuits faster, more powerful, lighter, and cooler, and provide a very efficient method for transmitting electricity.
Summary Analysis:	Nanowires based either on silicon or on carbon nanotubes have extremely high conductivity and are potential candidates for the next generation of circuits. Nanowires in circuits could be used as a transistor replacement for silicon, as a replacement for copper wires connecting components and as a heat conductor, enabling even faster processors, particularly in portable devices. One possibility is that nanoscale wires made from a combination of silicon and metal could connect nanoscale and macroscale electronics together, allowing for hybrid electronic components. In another, more revolutionary application, it is envisaged that wires made entirely of carbon nanotubes could conduct electricity many times farther and more efficiently than copper wires and weigh only a fraction as much. It is possible that these wires would be able to conduct electricity with little or no resistance and without dissipating electricity as heat. NASA hopes that carbon nanotube wires will miniaturise spacecraft, reducing weight and size compared to vehicles made with traditional copper wires. To date, however, only several centimeter-length carbon nanotube wires have been created, far from the the quantity necessary for large-sized applications or even limited mass quanitites. Various stakeholders are investing substantial resources in testing nanowire properties and expanding manufacturing capabilities.

Implications:

Continued miniaturisation and performance improvement of circuits
More efficient conduction of electricity over longer distances, resulting in vast savings
Reduction in weight and size of spacecraft, making them easier to launch

Early Indicators:

Investment by US NASA of several million dollars in Rice University's Carbon Nanotechnology Laboratory to see a 1-meter-long prototype of pure carbon nanotube wire by 2010
Heavy investment by Intel in nanowire research and development (both carbon nanotube- and silicon-based) as one of the few promising solutions to keep Moore's Law on track through 2015 and beyond

What to Watch:

Carbon nanotube wires start to be mass produced.

Parallels/Precedents:

Enablers/drivers:

Continuing investment in testing nanowire properties and expanding manufacturing capabilities
Development of the capability to consistently manufacture specific types of carbon nanotubes

Leaders:
Institutions:

Carbon Nanotechnology Laboratory, Rice University, and NASA Ames Research Center for Nanotechnology (development of carbon nanotube wires)
Lieber Research Group, Harvard University (work on silicon-metal hybrid nanowires)
Intel Corporation (development of electronic circuits using applied nanowires)
Northwestern University (work by Lidong Qin on molecular circuits using nanowires)
University of Sheffield [link]
Technical University, Denmark [link]
University of Cambridge [link]
Australian National University [link]
Lund University, Sweden [link]
QUNano AB, Lund University spinoff [link]

Figures:

Sources:

Qin, L.; Park, S.; Huang, L.; Mirkin, C.A. 2005. "On-Wire Lithography (OWL)" Science, 309, 113.
Knight, Will. 2004. "Hybrid nano-wires provide link to silicon." NewScientist.com, June 30.
Roco, Mihail C. and William Sims Bainbridge (eds.) "Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance: Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information Technology and Cognitive Science." National Science Foundation.
Y. Wu, J. Xiang, C. Yang, W. Lu and C.M. Lieber. 2004. "Single-crystal metallic nanowires and metal/semiconductor nanowire heterostructures," Nature 430, 61-65.
"In-Person, Robert S. Chau." Nanotech Briefs, Vol. 2, No. 3 (May 2005).
A Hellemans, Strange bedfellows, IEEE Spectrum, 42, 2, 14-15, 2005 [link]
S Bellucci, INFN Frascati, Carbon Nanotubes and Semiconducting Nanostructures, CANEUS 2004 Conference on Micro-Nano Technologies [link]
J O Arnold and E Venktapathy, Developments in Nanotechnology and implications for future atmospheric entry probes, 2003, [link]
Srivastava, D. Menon, M. Kyeongjae Cho, Computational nanotechnology with carbon nanotubes and fullerenes, Computing in Science & Engineering 3, 4, 42-55, 2001 [link]
Superconducting Nanowires show ability to measure magnetic fields, Commercial Space Watch, June 16 2005 [link]

At A Glance:
When:
3–10 years

Where:
Global

How Fast:
Years

Likelihood:
Medium-High

Impact:
Medium-Low

Controversy:
Medium

Related Outlooks:

About this outlook: An outlook is an internally consistent, plausible view of the future based on the best expertise available. It is not a prediction of the future. The AT-A-GLANCE ratings suggest the scope, scale, and uncertainty associated with this outlook. Each outlook is also a working document, with contributors adding comments and edits to improve the forecast over time. Please see the revision history for earlier versions.

	Implications:	Continued miniaturisation and performance improvement of circuits More efficient conduction of electricity over longer distances, resulting in vast savings Reduction in weight and size of spacecraft, making them easier to launch
	Early Indicators:	Investment by US NASA of several million dollars in Rice University's Carbon Nanotechnology Laboratory to see a 1-meter-long prototype of pure carbon nanotube wire by 2010 Heavy investment by Intel in nanowire research and development (both carbon nanotube- and silicon-based) as one of the few promising solutions to keep Moore's Law on track through 2015 and beyond
	What to Watch:	Carbon nanotube wires start to be mass produced.
	Parallels/Precedents:
	Enablers/drivers:	Continuing investment in testing nanowire properties and expanding manufacturing capabilities Development of the capability to consistently manufacture specific types of carbon nanotubes
	Leaders:	Institutions: Carbon Nanotechnology Laboratory, Rice University, and NASA Ames Research Center for Nanotechnology (development of carbon nanotube wires) Lieber Research Group, Harvard University (work on silicon-metal hybrid nanowires) Intel Corporation (development of electronic circuits using applied nanowires) Northwestern University (work by Lidong Qin on molecular circuits using nanowires) University of Sheffield [link] Technical University, Denmark [link] University of Cambridge [link] Australian National University [link] Lund University, Sweden [link] QUNano AB, Lund University spinoff [link]
	Figures:
	Sources:	Qin, L.; Park, S.; Huang, L.; Mirkin, C.A. 2005. "On-Wire Lithography (OWL)" Science, 309, 113. Knight, Will. 2004. "Hybrid nano-wires provide link to silicon." NewScientist.com, June 30. Roco, Mihail C. and William Sims Bainbridge (eds.) "Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance: Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information Technology and Cognitive Science." National Science Foundation. Y. Wu, J. Xiang, C. Yang, W. Lu and C.M. Lieber. 2004. "Single-crystal metallic nanowires and metal/semiconductor nanowire heterostructures," Nature 430, 61-65. "In-Person, Robert S. Chau." Nanotech Briefs, Vol. 2, No. 3 (May 2005). A Hellemans, Strange bedfellows, IEEE Spectrum, 42, 2, 14-15, 2005 [link] S Bellucci, INFN Frascati, Carbon Nanotubes and Semiconducting Nanostructures, CANEUS 2004 Conference on Micro-Nano Technologies [link] J O Arnold and E Venktapathy, Developments in Nanotechnology and implications for future atmospheric entry probes, 2003, [link] Srivastava, D. Menon, M. Kyeongjae Cho, Computational nanotechnology with carbon nanotubes and fullerenes, Computing in Science & Engineering 3, 4, 42-55, 2001 [link] Superconducting Nanowires show ability to measure magnetic fields, Commercial Space Watch, June 16 2005 [link]

At A Glance:	When:	3–10 years
	Where:	Global
	How Fast:	Years
	Likelihood:	Medium-High
	Impact:	Medium-Low
	Controversy:	Medium