Delta Scan: The Future of Science and Technology, 2005-2055: Brazil's Expanding Technology Sector

Key Pages

Category:
Science and Technology

Domain:
Geography of Science

Keywords:
Knowledge, communication & learning - Brazil, organisation of technology, innovation, technology-driven entrepreneurship

Outlook:
Brazilian technology has thus far developed a small number of world-class centres of excellence. In the next 20 years, overall domestic technological contributions to the national economy could expand, given the right conditions.

Summary Analysis:
Brazil's scientific community has expanded greatly in the last 20 years. However, that expansion has not yet translated into greater technical innovation and commercialisation: compared to developed countries, Brazil has a lower ratio of patents to scientific articles. Nor has it led thus far to broad excellence in technology or the use of innovative technologies or practices outside a few industries like finance and aviation. Brazil has developed world-class technical competence in three areas: deep-sea oil exploration and drilling (through its national oil company, Petrobras), regional aircraft (through aircraft designer and manufacturer Embraer), and tropical agriculture. Each of these are large-scale enterprises, initially supported by generous state funding and now maintained by strong global sales.

In the next 20 years, technological innovation could extend across a wider range of industries in Brazil and have a greater effect on the economy. This may happen if Brazil is able to better capitalise on the nation's growing pool of scientific talent and knowledge, encourage technology-driven entrepreneurship, and broaden the number of areas in which its technological expertise is well recognized. This will could happen if:

University-industry partnerships develop further -- The vast majority of Brazilian science PhDs work in universities or state-funded research institutes. Few have a good record of patenting inventions or encouraging spin-offs. For its part, Brazilian industry has tended not to be science-intensive (with the exceptions of Petrobras and Embraer).
Entrepreneurial activity continues to develop -- Brazil has a paradoxical economic system: large segments of the economy have been state controlled, and the national economy still has substantial statist elements, but it also has a vibrant entrepreneurial culture, and one of eight adult Brazilians is self-employed.
The patent system is developed to encourage universities and researchers to file patents as a first step toward commercialisation of intellectual property.

Implications:

Improvement and diversification of the Brazilian economy
Improvement of Brazilian science

Early Indicators:

Founding of a number of science parks and university incubators in Brazil in the last decade
Current efforts to promote Brazil's strong but little-known IT companies globally
Early adoption in Brazil of social software, such as Google's Orkut service

What to Watch:

Institutions designed to mediate between academic/government science and industry are an increasing presence in Brazil.
Brazil's IT industry succeeds in increasing its visibility globally and serves as a model for similar programs in other areas.
New home-grown mobile and social software services catering to Brazilian small businesses and the self-employed signal that technical innovation is reaching a broader proportion of the Brazilian economy.

Parallels/Precedents:

Development of technology-based industry in 19th-century Britain and Germany and 20th-century Korea and Japan

Enablers/drivers:

Improvement of Brazil's patent system
Development of closer academic-industry ties
Encouragement of technology-driven entrepreneurship
Growth of angel investing

Leaders:

International Institute of Neuroscience of Natal [link]
The State of São Paulo Research Foundation
The National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq)
Ministry of Science and Technology
National Institute of Advanced Studies, Rio de Janeiro [link]
Global Network on IPR Research [link]
Petrobras [link]
Embraer [link]
Brazil's Prooalcool Programme [link]

Figures:

Sources:

Jean-Eric Aubert, "Stimulating Innovation in Brazil: What to Do?" XIV Forum Nacional, May 2002. Reprinted in O Brasil e a Economia do Conhecimento (Brazil and the Knowledge Economy). [link]
Frederico Costa, "Semiconductor Industry," STST-USA 2002. [link]
Jason Dedrick, Kenneth L. Kraemer, Antonio Botelho, Paulo Tigre, "Globalization of IT: Brazil IT Report, 1998." Center for Research on Information Technology and Organizations, University of California, Irvine. [link]
Mario Osava, "Low Scores for Technological Development," Tierramerica (10 July 2004). [link]
Carlos A.S. Passos, Branca Regina Cantisano Terra, Andre T. Furtado, Conceicao Vedovello, Guilherme Ary Plonski, "Improving university-industry partnership – the Brazilian experience through the scientific and technological development support program (PADCT III)," International Journal of Technology Management (IJTM), 27:5 (2004).
Gregory F. Treverton, Lee Mizell, The Future of the Information Revolution in Latin America: Proceedings of an International Conference. Santa Barbara: RAND, 2001.
Jonathan Wheatley, "Brazil: A Hot Incubator For Tech Startups," Business Week (25 July 2005). [link]
Edgar Dutra Zanotto, "Scientific and Technological Development in Brazil: The Widening Gap," Scientometrics 55 (2002), 383-391. [link]
"Brazil fulfils US$200m pledge on frozen science funds." SciDev.Net. May 03 2006 [link]
"Brazil launches lab for agricultural nanotechnology." SciDev.Net. April 26 2006 [link]
Science and the Global Economy: Country profiles: Brazil, FCO, UK [link]
Hirsch, T. "Biofuels are Booming in Brazil." ESRC Society Today [link]

At A Glance:
When:
11–20 years

Where:
Domestic/National

How Fast:
Years

Likelihood:
Medium-Low

Impact:
Low

Controversy:
Low

Related Outlooks:

About this outlook: An outlook is an internally consistent, plausible view of the future based on the best expertise available. It is not a prediction of the future. The AT-A-GLANCE ratings suggest the scope, scale, and uncertainty associated with this outlook. Each outlook is also a working document, with contributors adding comments and edits to improve the forecast over time. Please see the revision history for earlier versions.

Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Geography of Science
Keywords:	Knowledge, communication & learning - Brazil, organisation of technology, innovation, technology-driven entrepreneurship
Outlook:	Brazilian technology has thus far developed a small number of world-class centres of excellence. In the next 20 years, overall domestic technological contributions to the national economy could expand, given the right conditions.
Summary Analysis:	Brazil's scientific community has expanded greatly in the last 20 years. However, that expansion has not yet translated into greater technical innovation and commercialisation: compared to developed countries, Brazil has a lower ratio of patents to scientific articles. Nor has it led thus far to broad excellence in technology or the use of innovative technologies or practices outside a few industries like finance and aviation. Brazil has developed world-class technical competence in three areas: deep-sea oil exploration and drilling (through its national oil company, Petrobras), regional aircraft (through aircraft designer and manufacturer Embraer), and tropical agriculture. Each of these are large-scale enterprises, initially supported by generous state funding and now maintained by strong global sales. In the next 20 years, technological innovation could extend across a wider range of industries in Brazil and have a greater effect on the economy. This may happen if Brazil is able to better capitalise on the nation's growing pool of scientific talent and knowledge, encourage technology-driven entrepreneurship, and broaden the number of areas in which its technological expertise is well recognized. This will could happen if: University-industry partnerships develop further -- The vast majority of Brazilian science PhDs work in universities or state-funded research institutes. Few have a good record of patenting inventions or encouraging spin-offs. For its part, Brazilian industry has tended not to be science-intensive (with the exceptions of Petrobras and Embraer). Entrepreneurial activity continues to develop -- Brazil has a paradoxical economic system: large segments of the economy have been state controlled, and the national economy still has substantial statist elements, but it also has a vibrant entrepreneurial culture, and one of eight adult Brazilians is self-employed. The patent system is developed to encourage universities and researchers to file patents as a first step toward commercialisation of intellectual property.

	Implications:	Improvement and diversification of the Brazilian economy Improvement of Brazilian science
	Early Indicators:	Founding of a number of science parks and university incubators in Brazil in the last decade Current efforts to promote Brazil's strong but little-known IT companies globally Early adoption in Brazil of social software, such as Google's Orkut service
	What to Watch:	Institutions designed to mediate between academic/government science and industry are an increasing presence in Brazil. Brazil's IT industry succeeds in increasing its visibility globally and serves as a model for similar programs in other areas. New home-grown mobile and social software services catering to Brazilian small businesses and the self-employed signal that technical innovation is reaching a broader proportion of the Brazilian economy.
	Parallels/Precedents:	Development of technology-based industry in 19th-century Britain and Germany and 20th-century Korea and Japan
	Enablers/drivers:	Improvement of Brazil's patent system Development of closer academic-industry ties Encouragement of technology-driven entrepreneurship Growth of angel investing
	Leaders:	International Institute of Neuroscience of Natal [link] The State of São Paulo Research Foundation The National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) Ministry of Science and Technology National Institute of Advanced Studies, Rio de Janeiro [link] Global Network on IPR Research [link] Petrobras [link] Embraer [link] Brazil's Prooalcool Programme [link]
	Figures:
	Sources:	Jean-Eric Aubert, "Stimulating Innovation in Brazil: What to Do?" XIV Forum Nacional, May 2002. Reprinted in O Brasil e a Economia do Conhecimento (Brazil and the Knowledge Economy). [link] Frederico Costa, "Semiconductor Industry," STST-USA 2002. [link] Jason Dedrick, Kenneth L. Kraemer, Antonio Botelho, Paulo Tigre, "Globalization of IT: Brazil IT Report, 1998." Center for Research on Information Technology and Organizations, University of California, Irvine. [link] Mario Osava, "Low Scores for Technological Development," Tierramerica (10 July 2004). [link] Carlos A.S. Passos, Branca Regina Cantisano Terra, Andre T. Furtado, Conceicao Vedovello, Guilherme Ary Plonski, "Improving university-industry partnership – the Brazilian experience through the scientific and technological development support program (PADCT III)," International Journal of Technology Management (IJTM), 27:5 (2004). Gregory F. Treverton, Lee Mizell, The Future of the Information Revolution in Latin America: Proceedings of an International Conference. Santa Barbara: RAND, 2001. Jonathan Wheatley, "Brazil: A Hot Incubator For Tech Startups," Business Week (25 July 2005). [link] Edgar Dutra Zanotto, "Scientific and Technological Development in Brazil: The Widening Gap," Scientometrics 55 (2002), 383-391. [link] "Brazil fulfils US$200m pledge on frozen science funds." SciDev.Net. May 03 2006 [link] "Brazil launches lab for agricultural nanotechnology." SciDev.Net. April 26 2006 [link] Science and the Global Economy: Country profiles: Brazil, FCO, UK [link] Hirsch, T. "Biofuels are Booming in Brazil." ESRC Society Today [link]

At A Glance:	When:	11–20 years
	Where:	Domestic/National
	How Fast:	Years
	Likelihood:	Medium-Low
	Impact:	Low
	Controversy:	Low