Delta Scan: The Future of Science and Technology, 2005-2055: Brazil: A Potential Scientific Leader

Key Pages

Category:
Science and Technology

Domain:
Geography of Science

Keywords:
Knowledge, communication & learning - Brazil, organisation of science, innovation, reverse migration, international collaboration

Outlook:
Brazil could emerge as one of the world's leading scientific powers by 2025, if it pursues a policy of intelligent investment and maximises the benefits of international collaboration.

Summary Analysis:
In the last 20 years, Brazil's scientific community and infrastructure have grown substantially, both in size and quality. The number of scientists trained domestically has grown eightfold in the last 15 years; funding for scientific research has increased (though unsteadily); and output, as measured by numbers of patents and scientific articles, has also grown. Brazil has pockets of world-class scientific research, particularly in genomics, information technology, tropical medicine, and agriculture.

However, several forces have worked to keep the Brazilian scientific community from developing further. Science funding, while increasing, still remains low (about 0.5% of GDP). Intellectual property rights are not adequately protected, and the patent system is complicated. More broadly, Brazil's economy is still dominated by extractive industries and agriculture, and only a minority of the population complete secondary school. If these trends continue, Brazilian science is likely to remain as it is today: strong in a few areas and world-class in a smaller number but contributing little to the national economy and public culture.

If Brazil is to expand the number of areas in which it is recognized as a world leader in the next 20 years and make a steady transition to more knowledge-intensive industries, change is needed in a number of areas including the following:

International cooperation -- Brazil is a participant in a large number of research consortia and joint projects with scientists in North America and the EU. The best of these have proved successful in helping train Brazilian technicians and researchers, and in the future will likely contribute to institution-building efforts within Brazil and serve as an important channel for collaboration between Brazilian and international scientists.
Reverse migration -- Anecdotal evidence suggests that Brazil has less of a brain drain problem than other developing countries: a large number of Brazilian scientists eventually return to Brazil after training and working abroad, and most scientists trained in Brazil remain. Further, Brazilian scientific expatriates are beginning to establish research centers in their home country.
Changes in academic culture -- Academic scientists have demonstrated low interest in patenting and commercialising research. Establishing academic-industry joint ventures, campus incubators, and regional funds to provide angel-stage investment and advice would help improve transfer of academic expertise and greatly improve Brazil's track record of innovation.
Decentralization -- Fully half the nation's scientists are located in the state of Sao Paolo, and another quarter are in the state of Rio de Janeiro. Some of the most innovative emerging institutions, research efforts, and science parks, in contrast, are in smaller cities like Campinas and Refice.
Growth of the open source movement -- Brazilian technologists and science policymakers have developed a strong affection for open source software, and open source methods of producing and sharing knowledge more generally. This is partly a reaction against Brazil's attempt to develop a national computer industry in the 1970s and 1980s (which was a tremendous failure but which trained a generation of good computer scientists). Already there is an active open source software development community in Brazil, and the nation is an early adopter of open source software. In the future, other open source movements that play to Brazilian strengths -- most notably, the open source biotechnology movement -- may be met with equal enthusiasm in Brazil. More broadly, the open source world represents a radically different model from the closed intellectual autarky model that drove Brazilian science and technology policy through the 1980s. Brazilian policymakers and science administrators still harbor ambitions of developing a world-class scientific community, but as part of the global scientific network, not independent of it.

Implications:

Improvement of the environment as Brazil's economy moves from a basis in agriculture and exploitation of natural resources to a basis in knowledge
Potential for the invention of new institutional forms for scientific research and practice
Encouragement of other emerging nations, particularly in Latin America and Africa

Early Indicators:

Establishment by Duke University neuroscientist Miguel Nicolelis of a neuroscience institute in Natal, in northern Brazil
Growth in science funding
Growth in scientific output as measured by patents and journal articles
Growth in MA and PhD production -- fewer than 5,000 MAs were awarded in Brazil in 1987, while more than 25,000 were awarded in 2003

What to Watch:

New international research projects and institutes are founded in Brazil.
New industry-academic initiatives are created.
Rates of patenting and start-ups among university faculty increase.

Parallels/Precedents:

Movement of European nations in the 19th and early 20th centuries from agricultural and industrial to science-based and knowledge-intensive economies

Enablers/drivers:

Growth of international cooperative research efforts
Increasing reverse migration of people and programs
Stablisation of domestic research funding (in contrast to Brazil's tendency toward boom and bust cycles in science funding)

Leaders:
Institutions:

International Institute of Neuroscience of Natal [link]
The State of São Paulo Research Foundation
The National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq)
Ministry of Science and Technology
National Institute of Advanced Studies, Rio de Janeiro [link]
Global Network on IPR Research, Birkbeck College, UK [link]
Federal Universities of Rio de Janeiro [link]
University of Brazilia [link]
University of Sao Paolo [link]

Figures:

Sources:

Jean-Eric Aubert, "Stimulating Innovation in Brazil: What to Do?" XIV Forum Nacional, May 2002. Reprinted in O Brasil e a Economia do Conhecimento (Brazil and the Knowledge Economy). [link]
Antonio Botelho and Simon Schwartzman, "Growing Pains: Brazilian Scientists and Their Shifting Roles," in Jacques Gaillard, V. V. Krishna and Roland Waast, Scientific Communities in the Developing World, Sage Publications, 1996. [link]
Lauritz Holm-Nielsen, Michael Crawford, Alcyone Saliba, eds., Institutional and Entrepreneurial Leadership in the Brazilian Science and Technology Sector. World Bank Discussion Paper 325. Washington: World Bank, 1996. [link]
José Luis Morán-López, "Physics in Latin America Comes of Age," Physics Today Online 53 (October 2000). [link]
Mario Osava, "Low Scores for Technological Development," Tierramerica (10 July 2004). [link]
R. Pinheiro-Machado, "The Brazilian Investment in Science and Technology," Brazilian Journal of Medical and Biological Research 34 (2001), 1521-1530. [link]
Science in Brazil: An Overview. Prepared for the World Conference on Science, Budapest, 26 June- 1 July, 1999. Brasilia: Brazilian Academy of Sciences, 1999. [link]
Simon Schwartzman, "Universities and the Transformation of Society in Brazil," Paper prepared for the research project on "The Role of Universities in the Transformation of Societies", October 2003.
Edgar Dutra Zanotto, "Scientific and Technological Development in Brazil: The Widening Gap," Scientometrics 55 (2002), 383-391. [link]
"S&T Indicators," Ministerio da Ciencia e Tecnologia [link]
"UK and Brazil forge strong links on science." The Oxford Trust [link]
"Science and the Global Economy: Country Profiles: Brazil." Foreign and Commonwealth Office, UK. [link]
"Brazil fulfils US$200m pledge on frozen science funds." SciDev.Net. May 03 2006 [link]
"Brazil launches lab for agricultural nanotechnology." SciDev.Net. April 26 2006 [link]

At A Glance:
When:
11–20 years

Where:
Domestic/National

How Fast:
Years

Likelihood:
Medium-Low

Impact:
Low

Controversy:
Low

Related Outlooks:

About this outlook: An outlook is an internally consistent, plausible view of the future based on the best expertise available. It is not a prediction of the future. The AT-A-GLANCE ratings suggest the scope, scale, and uncertainty associated with this outlook. Each outlook is also a working document, with contributors adding comments and edits to improve the forecast over time. Please see the revision history for earlier versions.

Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Geography of Science
Keywords:	Knowledge, communication & learning - Brazil, organisation of science, innovation, reverse migration, international collaboration
Outlook:	Brazil could emerge as one of the world's leading scientific powers by 2025, if it pursues a policy of intelligent investment and maximises the benefits of international collaboration.
Summary Analysis:	In the last 20 years, Brazil's scientific community and infrastructure have grown substantially, both in size and quality. The number of scientists trained domestically has grown eightfold in the last 15 years; funding for scientific research has increased (though unsteadily); and output, as measured by numbers of patents and scientific articles, has also grown. Brazil has pockets of world-class scientific research, particularly in genomics, information technology, tropical medicine, and agriculture. However, several forces have worked to keep the Brazilian scientific community from developing further. Science funding, while increasing, still remains low (about 0.5% of GDP). Intellectual property rights are not adequately protected, and the patent system is complicated. More broadly, Brazil's economy is still dominated by extractive industries and agriculture, and only a minority of the population complete secondary school. If these trends continue, Brazilian science is likely to remain as it is today: strong in a few areas and world-class in a smaller number but contributing little to the national economy and public culture. If Brazil is to expand the number of areas in which it is recognized as a world leader in the next 20 years and make a steady transition to more knowledge-intensive industries, change is needed in a number of areas including the following: International cooperation -- Brazil is a participant in a large number of research consortia and joint projects with scientists in North America and the EU. The best of these have proved successful in helping train Brazilian technicians and researchers, and in the future will likely contribute to institution-building efforts within Brazil and serve as an important channel for collaboration between Brazilian and international scientists. Reverse migration -- Anecdotal evidence suggests that Brazil has less of a brain drain problem than other developing countries: a large number of Brazilian scientists eventually return to Brazil after training and working abroad, and most scientists trained in Brazil remain. Further, Brazilian scientific expatriates are beginning to establish research centers in their home country. Changes in academic culture -- Academic scientists have demonstrated low interest in patenting and commercialising research. Establishing academic-industry joint ventures, campus incubators, and regional funds to provide angel-stage investment and advice would help improve transfer of academic expertise and greatly improve Brazil's track record of innovation. Decentralization -- Fully half the nation's scientists are located in the state of Sao Paolo, and another quarter are in the state of Rio de Janeiro. Some of the most innovative emerging institutions, research efforts, and science parks, in contrast, are in smaller cities like Campinas and Refice. Growth of the open source movement -- Brazilian technologists and science policymakers have developed a strong affection for open source software, and open source methods of producing and sharing knowledge more generally. This is partly a reaction against Brazil's attempt to develop a national computer industry in the 1970s and 1980s (which was a tremendous failure but which trained a generation of good computer scientists). Already there is an active open source software development community in Brazil, and the nation is an early adopter of open source software. In the future, other open source movements that play to Brazilian strengths -- most notably, the open source biotechnology movement -- may be met with equal enthusiasm in Brazil. More broadly, the open source world represents a radically different model from the closed intellectual autarky model that drove Brazilian science and technology policy through the 1980s. Brazilian policymakers and science administrators still harbor ambitions of developing a world-class scientific community, but as part of the global scientific network, not independent of it.

	Implications:	Improvement of the environment as Brazil's economy moves from a basis in agriculture and exploitation of natural resources to a basis in knowledge Potential for the invention of new institutional forms for scientific research and practice Encouragement of other emerging nations, particularly in Latin America and Africa
	Early Indicators:	Establishment by Duke University neuroscientist Miguel Nicolelis of a neuroscience institute in Natal, in northern Brazil Growth in science funding Growth in scientific output as measured by patents and journal articles Growth in MA and PhD production -- fewer than 5,000 MAs were awarded in Brazil in 1987, while more than 25,000 were awarded in 2003
	What to Watch:	New international research projects and institutes are founded in Brazil. New industry-academic initiatives are created. Rates of patenting and start-ups among university faculty increase.
	Parallels/Precedents:	Movement of European nations in the 19th and early 20th centuries from agricultural and industrial to science-based and knowledge-intensive economies
	Enablers/drivers:	Growth of international cooperative research efforts Increasing reverse migration of people and programs Stablisation of domestic research funding (in contrast to Brazil's tendency toward boom and bust cycles in science funding)
	Leaders:	Institutions: International Institute of Neuroscience of Natal [link] The State of São Paulo Research Foundation The National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) Ministry of Science and Technology National Institute of Advanced Studies, Rio de Janeiro [link] Global Network on IPR Research, Birkbeck College, UK [link] Federal Universities of Rio de Janeiro [link] University of Brazilia [link] University of Sao Paolo [link]
	Figures:
	Sources:	Jean-Eric Aubert, "Stimulating Innovation in Brazil: What to Do?" XIV Forum Nacional, May 2002. Reprinted in O Brasil e a Economia do Conhecimento (Brazil and the Knowledge Economy). [link] Antonio Botelho and Simon Schwartzman, "Growing Pains: Brazilian Scientists and Their Shifting Roles," in Jacques Gaillard, V. V. Krishna and Roland Waast, Scientific Communities in the Developing World, Sage Publications, 1996. [link] Lauritz Holm-Nielsen, Michael Crawford, Alcyone Saliba, eds., Institutional and Entrepreneurial Leadership in the Brazilian Science and Technology Sector. World Bank Discussion Paper 325. Washington: World Bank, 1996. [link] José Luis Morán-López, "Physics in Latin America Comes of Age," Physics Today Online 53 (October 2000). [link] Mario Osava, "Low Scores for Technological Development," Tierramerica (10 July 2004). [link] R. Pinheiro-Machado, "The Brazilian Investment in Science and Technology," Brazilian Journal of Medical and Biological Research 34 (2001), 1521-1530. [link] Science in Brazil: An Overview. Prepared for the World Conference on Science, Budapest, 26 June- 1 July, 1999. Brasilia: Brazilian Academy of Sciences, 1999. [link] Simon Schwartzman, "Universities and the Transformation of Society in Brazil," Paper prepared for the research project on "The Role of Universities in the Transformation of Societies", October 2003. Edgar Dutra Zanotto, "Scientific and Technological Development in Brazil: The Widening Gap," Scientometrics 55 (2002), 383-391. [link] "S&T Indicators," Ministerio da Ciencia e Tecnologia [link] "UK and Brazil forge strong links on science." The Oxford Trust [link] "Science and the Global Economy: Country Profiles: Brazil." Foreign and Commonwealth Office, UK. [link] "Brazil fulfils US$200m pledge on frozen science funds." SciDev.Net. May 03 2006 [link] "Brazil launches lab for agricultural nanotechnology." SciDev.Net. April 26 2006 [link]

At A Glance:	When:	11–20 years
	Where:	Domestic/National
	How Fast:	Years
	Likelihood:	Medium-Low
	Impact:	Low
	Controversy:	Low