Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Energy
Keywords:	Energy - clean coal, gasification, air pollution, alternative energy
Outlook:	Technologies such as coal gasification may be employed around the globe to provide the second wave of ‘clean’ fossil fuel energy as countries turn to their own coal deposits to meet growing energy needs.
Summary Analysis:	In recent years, burning coal to produce energy has fallen out of favour given the high levels of air pollution that result. Instead, natural gas has been extensively exploited as the first generation of 'cleaner' fossil fuels – so much so that it may soon join oil as the next important, must-have energy source. But with its rapid adoption have come supply constraints and wildly spiking prices, forcing countries to look for alternative sources to meet their growing energy needs. In general, Europe is mandating the increased use of renewable energy sources (such as wind, wave, and solar). But currently, these sources are not, in most cases, as economical as fossil fuels – even at gas’s fluctuating prices. Other parts of the world are looking back to nuclear energy and to other ‘clean’ fossil fuels. The big winner in the second wave of ‘cleaner’ fossil fuels is likely to be clean coal technology. Globally, the supply of coal is abundant, and it is currently the cheapest source of energy. Technologies such as coal gasification can clean up power plant emissions but have not been widely rolled out because of the large investment necessary and competitive oil prices over the past two decades. With higher sustained oil prices and continuing geopolitical concern around adequate supplies of oil, more countries may turn to their own abundant coal deposits via coal gasification technology to meet their growing energy needs.

	Implications:	More stable, lower natural gas prices Growing volume of business upgrading existing coal plants with gasification technology Stabilisation or rebirth of the coal mining industry in countries that invest in gasification Continued growth in electricity prices long term, but lower prices and less price volatility than otherwise
	Early Indicators:	Discussion about coal gasification subsidies in the US Congress
	What to Watch:	Levels of government support for gasification technology continue to increase. The fate of old coal power plants nearing the end of life (decommission or upgrade?) is increasingly a topic of public discussion.
	Parallels/Precedents:	Extensive use of coal gasification by the chemicals industry
	Enablers/drivers:	Continuing high and volatile electricity prices Continuing supply constraints on natural gas Increasing demand for less polluting sources of energy
	Leaders:	Regions: China South Africa Institutions: SASOL (South Africa's state synfuels company) [link] Many Chinese chemical companies China Coal Information Network [link] Eastman Chemical Alstom Power [link] World Coal Institute [link] Nottingham Fuel and Energy Centre, UK [link] Imperial College, London, UK [link] Coal Authority [link]
	Figures:
	Sources:	"International Energy Agency" International Energy Agency [link] "International Energy Outlook 2005." Energy Information Administration [link] "Gasification Technologies Council" Gasification Technologies Council [link] Gibbins, Jon et al "Scope for Future CO2 Emission Reductions from Electricity Generation through the Deployment of Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies." 2005. [link] "A Strategy for Developing Carbon Abatement Technologies for Fossil Fuel Use." DTI & DEFRA. 2006 [link] Watson, J "Rising Sun: Technology Transfer in China." Energy. Vol. 26 (4). Winter 2005 [link] "US Department of Energy" US Department of Energy [link] "Clean Energy US" Clean Energy US [link]

	At A Glance:	When:	11–20 years
		Where:	Global
		How Fast:	Unknown
		Likelihood:	Medium-High
		Impact:	Low
		Controversy:	Medium

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