Delta Scan: The Future of Science and Technology, 2005-2055: Growing Consumer Demand for Energy Efficiency

Key Pages

Category:
Science and Technology

Domain:
Energy

Keywords:
Energy - energy efficiency, oil consumption, hybrid vehicles

Outlook:
Consumers in industrialised nations may start a small but significant movement by demanding increasing energy efficiency.

Summary Analysis:
Currently, when energy prices rise as a result of increased energy demand, the world’s response is to increase the supply of energy. Only when a major supply crisis hits are demand-side initiatives (like conservation) actively pushed by governments. But even without a supply crisis, a growing group of consumers may precipitate a small but significant demand-side revolution emphasising greater energy efficiency.

Whether to reduce pollution or the impact of human activity on climate change, decrease reliance on foreign energy sources, or just to save money, consumers may increasingly opt for greater energy efficiency when making purchasing decisions. Indeed, higher energy prices will probably make many energy-saving technologies the better investment. A second lever of influence will be political pressure. Politicians may find increasing pressure on them to pass energy efficiency laws as the result of democratic aggregation of like-minded individuals. The legislation could cover tougher building codes, the regulation of fuel efficiency, and tax and subsidy incentives aimed at more efficient use of energy.

Whilst the demand-side pressure for efficiency may be successful in the industrialised world, it is most likely to be consumers in the developing world who will account for the greatest increase in energy consumption. The developing world would thus maintain pressure on supplies and consequently prices. The continuing upward trend in prices could, in turn, help to maintain the momentum for energy conservation leading to the development of energy efficient technologies and practices.

Implications:

Potential for greater energy efficiency to become a key design criterion for many consumer and commercial goods
Potential for more regulations to be passed at all levels of government mandating greater energy efficiency
Potential for rapidly developing economies (like China) to be viewed unfavorably by consumers and politicians alike for their rampant consumption of energy and the resulting pollution and price increases

Early Indicators:

Initial success of hybrid automobiles despite their costing significantly more than gas-fueled autos

What to Watch:

Energy prices continue their long-term trend toward gradual increases with volatile spikes and collapses.
Adoption of hybrid automobile technology becomes mainstream.
Governments begin to promulgate more energy efficiency regulations.

Parallels/Precedents:

The US Environmental Protection Agency's development of its Energy Star rating system
Increased refrigerator efficiency in the US over the past two decades, first with stringent 1993 regulations that nearly halved energy use, and then again in 2001, when models became even more efficient

Enablers/drivers:

Continually rising energy prices
Development of new energy-saving technologies
Continued improvement of miniaturisation technologies

Leaders:
Regions:

Europe
US
Japan

Institutions:

Institute of Energy and Sustainable Development, De Montfort University [link]
Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University [link]
Tyndall Centre, Manchester University [link]
Japanese Agency for Natural Resources and Energy [link]
Toyota
Honda
Danish Energy Agency [link]
European Commission [link]

Figures:

Sources:

"International Energy Agency" International Energy Agency [link]
"Annual Energy Outlook 2005 with Projections to 2025." US Energy Information Administration. [link]
"Energy Action" Energy Action [link]
"NationMaster" NationMaster [link]
Batley SL, Fleming PD & Urwin P. "Willingness to pay for renewable energy: Implications for UK green tariff offerings." International Journal of Indoor and Built Environment. (2000). Vol 9, Issue 3-4, pp 157-170
Darby, S. "Learning about energy - how will low-impact energy use become a way of life?" Paper 6.149, Proceedings, European Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, Mandelieu, June 2005
Brenda Boardman, Sarah Darby, Gavin Killip, Mark Hinnells, Christian N. Jardine, Jane Palmer and Graham Sinden "40% House." Environmental Change Institute Research (2005) Report 31 [link]

At A Glance:
When:
3–10 years

Where:
Global

How Fast:
Years

Likelihood:
Medium-Low

Impact:
Low

Controversy:
Low

Related Outlooks:

About this outlook: An outlook is an internally consistent, plausible view of the future based on the best expertise available. It is not a prediction of the future. The AT-A-GLANCE ratings suggest the scope, scale, and uncertainty associated with this outlook. Each outlook is also a working document, with contributors adding comments and edits to improve the forecast over time. Please see the revision history for earlier versions.

Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Energy
Keywords:	Energy - energy efficiency, oil consumption, hybrid vehicles
Outlook:	Consumers in industrialised nations may start a small but significant movement by demanding increasing energy efficiency.
Summary Analysis:	Currently, when energy prices rise as a result of increased energy demand, the world’s response is to increase the supply of energy. Only when a major supply crisis hits are demand-side initiatives (like conservation) actively pushed by governments. But even without a supply crisis, a growing group of consumers may precipitate a small but significant demand-side revolution emphasising greater energy efficiency. Whether to reduce pollution or the impact of human activity on climate change, decrease reliance on foreign energy sources, or just to save money, consumers may increasingly opt for greater energy efficiency when making purchasing decisions. Indeed, higher energy prices will probably make many energy-saving technologies the better investment. A second lever of influence will be political pressure. Politicians may find increasing pressure on them to pass energy efficiency laws as the result of democratic aggregation of like-minded individuals. The legislation could cover tougher building codes, the regulation of fuel efficiency, and tax and subsidy incentives aimed at more efficient use of energy. Whilst the demand-side pressure for efficiency may be successful in the industrialised world, it is most likely to be consumers in the developing world who will account for the greatest increase in energy consumption. The developing world would thus maintain pressure on supplies and consequently prices. The continuing upward trend in prices could, in turn, help to maintain the momentum for energy conservation leading to the development of energy efficient technologies and practices.

	Implications:	Potential for greater energy efficiency to become a key design criterion for many consumer and commercial goods Potential for more regulations to be passed at all levels of government mandating greater energy efficiency Potential for rapidly developing economies (like China) to be viewed unfavorably by consumers and politicians alike for their rampant consumption of energy and the resulting pollution and price increases
	Early Indicators:	Initial success of hybrid automobiles despite their costing significantly more than gas-fueled autos
	What to Watch:	Energy prices continue their long-term trend toward gradual increases with volatile spikes and collapses. Adoption of hybrid automobile technology becomes mainstream. Governments begin to promulgate more energy efficiency regulations.
	Parallels/Precedents:	The US Environmental Protection Agency's development of its Energy Star rating system Increased refrigerator efficiency in the US over the past two decades, first with stringent 1993 regulations that nearly halved energy use, and then again in 2001, when models became even more efficient
	Enablers/drivers:	Continually rising energy prices Development of new energy-saving technologies Continued improvement of miniaturisation technologies
	Leaders:	Regions: Europe US Japan Institutions: Institute of Energy and Sustainable Development, De Montfort University [link] Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University [link] Tyndall Centre, Manchester University [link] Japanese Agency for Natural Resources and Energy [link] Toyota Honda Danish Energy Agency [link] European Commission [link]
	Figures:
	Sources:	"International Energy Agency" International Energy Agency [link] "Annual Energy Outlook 2005 with Projections to 2025." US Energy Information Administration. [link] "Energy Action" Energy Action [link] "NationMaster" NationMaster [link] Batley SL, Fleming PD & Urwin P. "Willingness to pay for renewable energy: Implications for UK green tariff offerings." International Journal of Indoor and Built Environment. (2000). Vol 9, Issue 3-4, pp 157-170 Darby, S. "Learning about energy - how will low-impact energy use become a way of life?" Paper 6.149, Proceedings, European Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, Mandelieu, June 2005 Brenda Boardman, Sarah Darby, Gavin Killip, Mark Hinnells, Christian N. Jardine, Jane Palmer and Graham Sinden "40% House." Environmental Change Institute Research (2005) Report 31 [link]

At A Glance:	When:	3–10 years
	Where:	Global
	How Fast:	Years
	Likelihood:	Medium-Low
	Impact:	Low
	Controversy:	Low