Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Energy
Keywords:	Energy - microgeneration, microturbines, micro fuel cells, thin-film photovoltaics
Outlook:	A variety of parallel advances in materials and miniaturisation may provide more options for powering electrical equipment independently of national grids.
Summary Analysis:	For more than a century, the electric power infrastructure has provided energy for the machinery of industrial and information-based economies. In the next 20 years, new scientific and engineering knowledge may reshape this infrastructure at the edges by shifting key points of power generation to very small portable units. Initially, this trend will be marked by miniaturisation of existing technologies such as fuel cells, gas turbines and photovoltaics. Over time, progress in materials and nanoassembly may permit power generation and storage in a wider range places than is currently possible.

	Implications:	Increasing access to power generation capabilities for the 1.6 billion people -- about one quarter of the world’s population -- who, according to the International Energy Agency, have no access to electricity today Expansion of the prospects for ubiquitous computing and communications Increasing decentralization of power generation and storage Decreased dependence on the fossil fuel generation and storage infrastructure Reduced environmental impact of energy generation
	Early Indicators:	Announcement by NTT/DoCoMo of the launch of a cell-phone fuel cell for 2007 Forecast by Frost & Sullivan that shipments of micro fuel cells for mobile devices will amount to 120 million units annually by 2010 Successful prototyping of very small lithium-ion batteries for use inside the body Development of microturbines for power generation
	What to Watch:	Fuel cells replace batteries in portable electronics. Solar-powered clothing and clothing containing mechanical power generators comes on the market.
	Parallels/Precedents:	Miniaturisation of power generation at the end of the 19th century (from massive dynamos to dry cells) Miniaturisation being brought about by RF (radio frequency) technology
	Enablers/drivers:	Rise of personal electronics Increasing density of data storage devices (Moore’s Law) Advent of molecular manufacturing Economies increasingly feeling the impact of Hubbert’s Peak (falling oil production)
	Leaders:	Regions: Japan, US Institutions: Imperial College, London, UK [link] Institute for Energy Systems, University of Edinburgh, UK [link] Centre for Economic Renewable Power Delivery, Scotland [link] European Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology Platform [link] Japanese Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Demonstration Project [link] Gas Turbine Laboratory, MIT (work on microturbines) Lawrence Berkeley National Lab (advances in nanoscale assembly that could be used for photovoltaics) Argonne National Laboratory (development of lithium-ion battery implants) [link] Konarka Technologies (work on portable thin-film photovoltaics) [link] SUPERGEN [link]
	Figures:
	Sources:	Kallender, Paul. 2004. "Mobile Phone Fuel Cells Coming in 2007." PC World, July 13. [link] "Light activated, self-assembled biomimetic materials." Argonne National Lab. [link] "The Developing World and the Electricity Challenge." IEA (2005) [link] Technology Review Frost & Sullivan, May 2005, p. 27. Ashley, Steven. 1997. "Turbines on a dime." ASME Magazine, October. [link] "Energy facts." Solarenergy.org. [link] Bauen, A., Hart, D. and Chase A. "Fuel cells for distributed generation in developing countries – An analysis." International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 28, (2003), 695-701 T. Markvart and R.J. Arnold "Microgrids: Power systems for the 21st century" Ingenia. Royal Academy of Engineering. September 2005 [link] Eason, B. University of Queensland, Australia. "Cost-Benefit Analysis of Decentralised Electrical Power Generation Utilising Renewable Energy Resources." [link]

	At A Glance:	When:	11-20 years
		Where:	Global
		How Fast:	Years
		Likelihood:	Medium-High
		Impact:	Medium-High
		Controversy:	Medium

Related Outlooks: