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Category:
Science and Technology
Domain:
Keywords:
Computer Science - RFID, tagging, tracking, identification, security, monitoring
Outlook:
RFID tagging systems will probably be widely used to identify and track physical objects in a variety of industrial and consumer settings by 2015, despite concerns about potential abuse.
Summary Analysis:
Radio frequency identification (RFID) technology has recently emerged as a powerful new method for uniquely identifying and tagging physical objects in a variety of military, industrial, and consumer settings. In general, RFID tags consist of a small microprocessor and an antenna, which can respond to a query with a unique identification code. Crucially, RFID tags do not need their own source of power. They receive the power they need to transmit their identification code from a radio signal broadcast by the RFID reader.

RFID tags embedded in physical objects make them self-identifying to sensors and will serve as a key for retrieval of information from data networks such as the Web. There are many applications for the technology including the use of RFID in hospitals, where it can facilitate the tracking and analysis of patients, lab samples, etc.

To date, the application of RFID has been most extensive in logistics systems, such as airline baggage tracking and food supply monitoring. These applications are unlikely to be controversial since they add only convenience to existing systems of surveillance. However, where there is scope for collecting new kinds of information, the technology may meet resistance.

The deployment of RFID in retail has already caused controversy. In commercial and government applications (such as passports and identify cards) the deployment of tracking technologies may come into conflict with expectations about privacy and confidentiality. These expectations will probably moderate the rate of deployment across societies; for example, in East Asia where privacy expectations are differ from those elsewhere, RFID is already being widely deployed. In the EU, information privacy law is likely to complicate RFID implementation and deployment.

Implications:
  • Improved corporate inventory management
  • Increased efficiency in logistics systems
  • Enhanced security in transportation networks and baggage systems
Early Indicators:
  • Widespread deployment of RFID-based mobile phone payment systems in Japan and South Korea
  • Widespread use of automated motorway toll-payment systems in the US
  • Wal-Mart's adoption of an inventory management system based on RFID tagging of all merchandise
  • Experimental implant of VeriChip RFID chip by the artist Meghan Trainor (NYU Interactive Telecommunications Program)
What to Watch:
  • The price of RFID tags drops to 5 cents each by 2006, thanks to increased production, and cost savings generated by printing antennas and simplifying tag assembly. The price drops further to 1 cent each by 2008, as technologies for printing circuits and RFID chips move from the laboratory to the market.
  • RFID tags are incorporated into all new mobile phones.
  • Bar codes are removed from consumer product packaging as they are replaced by RFID tags.
Parallels/Precedents:
  • Deployment of UPC bar codes and scanners in the 1970s
Enablers/Drivers:
  • Increasing recognition of the risks posed by security gaps
  • Resolution of issues involving medical record-keeping and privacy regulations
  • Improved tag fabrication technologies
  • Further development of legal frameworks for privacy protection
Leaders:
Regions:
  • Japan, Korea, US, UK/EU
Institutions:
  • Wal-Mart (use of RFID to track all cases and pallets in 2004 trials in Texas stores)
  • Airlines (baggage tracking)
  • UK Government RFID Technology Centre [link]
  • Open University, Centre for Knowledge Management [link]
  • ETH Zurich [link]
  • University of Adelaide, Auto-ID Labs [link]
Figures:
Sources:
  • "RFID Through Consumers' Eyes: IFTF SR-893." Palo Alto, CA: Institute for the Future.
  • "Public Concerns and the Near Future of RFID SR-926B." Palo Alto, CA: Institute for the Future.
  • "Wal-Mart To Suppliers: Clean Up Your Data." Information Week 30 May 2005.
  • "RFID Implant." Meghan Trainor: Projects and Research. 20 July 2004. [link]
  • Steve Ranger, RFID Benefits Hard to Spot, Silicon.com, 30 June 2005 [link]
  • Intellident, Towards a museum of zeroes and ones, June 2 2004 [link]
  • European Commission, Directorate-General Information Society, Towards an RFID Policy for Europe [link]
  • Japan to push RFID development, RFID Journal, 20 February 2003 [link]
  • Michael Crawford, Australian Researchers confirm RFID DOS attacks, Computerworld April 111 2006 [link]
  • Matt Ward et al, RFID: Frequency, Standards, Adoption and Innovation, JISC, May 2006 [link]
  • Foresight Project Report: Intelligent Infracture Systems - Tagging, Sensors and Data Collection [link]

At A Glance:
When:
3-10 years
Where:
Global
How Fast:
Month–Years
Likelihood:
High
Impact:
Low
Controversy:
Low

Related Outlooks:

About this outlook: An outlook is an internally consistent, plausible view of the future based on the best expertise available. It is not a prediction of the future. The AT-A-GLANCE ratings suggest the scope, scale, and uncertainty associated with this outlook. Each outlook is also a working document, with contributors adding comments and edits to improve the forecast over time. Please see the revision history for earlier versions.


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