Category:

Science and Technology

Domain:

Computer Science

Keywords:

Networks & systems - broadband, wireless, computing, Wi-Fi, WiMAX, UWB, mesh networks, telecommunications

Outlook:

A nearly ubiquitous broadband architecture of wireless services for users of electronic telecommunications devices may be available globally by 2015.

Summary Analysis:

By 2010, devices such as mobile handsets may support many different short- and medium-range wireless technologies, including RFID, near field, PAN, WAN, WLAN, and metro broadband. This will be achieved through either software-defined radio (SDR) or multimode chips combined with smart antenna technology and will allow device users to move seamlessly between physical networks with a single logical session, unaware of which technology they are using.

By 2015, wireless broadband network coverage in developed countries may be nearly complete in urban areas and along major transport links such as roads and railways, and possibly as extensive as mobile phone coverage is now. From 2010 through 2020, new networking protocols will continue to be added as required to connect device users to the most appropriate (in terms of price and performance) wireless network available in any given location. By 2020, several different network architectures will co-exist, offering device users nearly ubiquitous proximity to high-bandwidth digital voice, text, graphic data, and media communications services. These will include networks with controlled and managed access points (for example, the cellular or 802.11 models) and ad-hoc or mesh networks.

Ad-hoc networks can be installed at low cost and can grow on an as-needed basis, making them more economic than any other network design. Mesh networks employ one of two connection arrangements: full mesh topology (where each node is connected directly to each of the others) or partial mesh topology (where some nodes are connected to all the others, and some nodes are connected only to those other nodes with which they exchange the most data). Mesh architectures will be used in several ways, including citywide broadband deployments, special purpose ad-hoc networks (such as between moving vehicles) and person-to-person peer-to-peer (P2P) networks (for instance, between consumer devices).

Wireless sensor networks (WSN) are also likely to be a major component of the telecommunications infrastructure by 2020. They will provide distributed network and Internet access to sensors, controls, and processors embedded in equipment, facilities, and environments. RFID tags are especially likely to proliferate and to connect objects to each other and to data collection environments. At the same time, all of our fibre-optic backbone infrastructure will be upgraded with massive improvements in throughput by combining and transmitting multiple signals simultaneously at different wavelengths on the same fibre using a technique called wave division multiplexing (WDM) or dense wave division multiplexing (DWDM).

Implications:

• Potential with DWDM for the Internet backbone provider (IBP) to assign separate wavelengths to different customers, facilitating the provision of different services over the same fiber
• Potential for mobile wireless users to instantly connect to each other and precisely local geoweb servers with tiny screens, digicams, video graphic messages, and music, interacting with pervasive contextual and geospatial or locative media and information.

Early Indicators:

• Current trend toward common mobile phones becoming digital terminals for data, text, media, and voice over IP at declining costs, worldwide
• Appearance of many extensions to Wi-Fi besides DSL and cable Internet services -- WiMAX, wireless metropolitan area networks (WMANs), and cognitive radio
• Rapid growth in percentage of online adults who access the Internet over broadband at home

What to Watch:

• In 2005–2006 the first commercial trials of WiMAX services from Intel and other companies result in this technology being adopted by 20% of consumers and 40% of enterprises in developed nations.
• Consumers and enterprises increasingly adopt multimegabit cable and DSL services for high-resolution applications like HDTV.

Parallels/Precedents:

• Acceleration of mobile phone adoption worldwide, especially in developing nations

Enablers/Drivers:

• Increasing demand for broadband wireless services by enterprise and home users

Leaders:

Regions:

• North America, Europe, Asia

Institutions:

• Intel
• Google (proposal to blanket San Francisco with wireless)
• Midwest Fiber Networks LLC (proposal to blanket Milwaukee with wireless by mid-2007)
• The Cloud (proposal for wireless coverage of Birmingham, Cambridge, Edinburgh, Leeds, Liverpool, Manchester, Nottingham and Oxford, and the London boroughs of Kensington and Chelsea, Camden and Islington)
• University of Aberdeen, Electronics Research Group [link]
• IBK (Institute for Broadband Communication) Austria [link]
• University of Edinburgh [link]
• Mobile VCE (UK university-industry research group) [link]

Figures:

Sources:

• "Over Half Of Online Adults Use Broadband At Home." Information Week. 12 May 2005.
• "The Digital Divide in 2025 - An independent study conducted for BT." December 2004. [link]
• "Magic Mobile Future 2010-2020." Report NO 37 from the UMTS Forum. April 2005. [link]
• Vanston, Lawrence, Ph.D. "The Local Exchange Network in 2015." June 22-28, 2002 [link]
• Ferreira, Pedro, William Lehr, and Lee McKnight. 2002. "Optical Networks and the Future of Broadband Services." Technological Forecasting and Social Change. [link]
• European Commission Information Society Directorate, Mobile and Wireless Communications [link]
• PWC, The Broadband Future: Interactive, Networked and Personalised [link]
• UK Online, The Broadband Future [link]
• Foresight Cyber Trust and Crime Prevention Project [link]
• P Mahonen et al, Hop-by-hop toward future mobile broadband IP, IEEE Communications Magazine March 2004, 42 138-146 [link]
• T Giles et al, Cost driversand deployment scenarios for future broadband wireless networks, Vehicular Technology Conference, IEEE, 2004 [link]
• Foresight Project Reports: Exploiting the Electromagnetic Spectrum [link]

At A Glance:

When:

3–10 years

Where:

Global

How Fast:

Years

Likelihood:

High

Impact:

Medium-Low

Controversy:

Low

Related Outlooks: