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Project Description
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Horizon Scanning Centre
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Institute for the Future |

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Category:
Science and Technology
Domain:
Keywords:
Cognitive & neurosciences - computing, neural interface, medical engineering, prosthetic engineering
Outlook:
The first physical neural interface between a computer and a human brain (probably serving a prosthetic function) may be demonstrated by 2015–2020.
Summary Analysis:
A neural interface is a direct connection between a human or animal brain and nervous system and a computer or computer network. With the advent of such interfaces, humans will be able to interact directly with computers by merely thinking. This capability has been described in cyberpunk science fiction by authors like William Gibson, who wrote in his short story Burning Chrome about humans 'jacking in' by inserting a chip or net interface directly into a socket or connector in the skull or spinal cord.

The first successful implementation of a neural interface may come from researchers working on human perception and prosthetic engineering at the intersections of medical and computer science, neural signalling, electronics, signal processing, molecular biology, and nanotechnology.

Implications:

  • Potential for restoration or enhancement of mobility and sensory capabilities for disabled people through connections to digital sensors and electromechanical and robotic systems
  • Potential for direct augmentation of cognition with external computation, and extension of physical capabilities with electromechanical and robotic devices
  • Potential for direct application of medical therapies to neural and cognitive processes
  • Potential for outside control of human behaviour through digital media

Early Indicators:

  • Experiments at the Institute for Integrated Micro and Nano Systems showing that a Web browser can be controlled through a brain-computer interface (BCI) using electro-encephalographic (EEG) activity
  • FreshMinds report for OST: "NASA [Ames Research Center] is developing a system with two sensors that monitor electrical signals sent to speech muscles and predict what the person is trying to say. If this technology advances it will be possible to think about what you are saying and for that to be translated remotely and transferred to the correct recipient."

What to Watch:

  • Major breakthroughs apply neuromorphic electronics to vision and hearing.
  • Intelligent prosthetics for battlefield amputees result from US military-funded research.

Parallels/Precedents:
Enablers/Drivers:

  • Continued research progress in related fields of medical and computer science, neural signaling, electronics, signal processing, molecular biology, and nanotechnology
  • Continued spending by defense agencies on war veterans’ rehabilitation
  • Continued support of research by agencies like the US National Science Foundation (NSF)
  • Establishment of the Institute of Neuromorphic Engineering (INE) to network interdisciplinary researchers and scholars and to provide a platform for intellectual discourse, education, publications, and sharing of resources

Leaders:
Regions:

  • US, UK, Europe, Asia

Institutions:

  • Center for Neuromorphic Systems Engineering, California Institute of Technology (research on neural computer interfaces) [link]
  • Institute for Integrated Micro and Nano Systems, University of Edinburgh (development of an experimental brain-computer interface)
  • Stanford University (Professor Larry Leifer's work since the mid-1980s on rehabilitation engineering using computational technologies)
  • Johns Hopkins University (work on a battery-powered speech recognizer, a rhythm generator for locomotion, and a camera that extracts object features)
  • ETH Zurich (development of a silicon retina chip)
  • Georgia Institute of Technology (development of a coupled rhythm generator for coordinated locomotion)
  • HKUST, Hong Kong (work on binocular processing for depth perception and visual tracking)
  • Massachussetts Institute of Technology (development of cochlea-based sound processor implants for deaf people)
  • University of Maryland (work on a sonar chip modeled on bat echolocation)
  • University of Arizona (development of a motion-sensing chip based on fly vision)
  • Shimoyama-Matsumoto-Hoshino Laboratory, University of Tokyo [link]
  • Shimojo Implicit Brain Function Project (Japan) [link]
  • University of Western Ontario (Canada) [link]
  • University of Reading [link]
  • UCL Implanted Devices Group [link]
  • University of Cambridge, Behavioural and Clinical Neurosciences Institute [link]
  • Foresight project on Brain Science Addiction and Drugs [link]

Figures:
Sources:

  • Fleury, Patrice, Adria Bofill-i-Petit, and Alan F. Murray. “Neural Hardware: beyond ones and zeros." Institute for Integrated Micro and Nano Systems, The University of Edinburgh, Scotland. [link]
  • Moore, M.M. "Real-world applications for brain-computer interface technology." IEEE Trans Neural Syst Rehabil Eng. 2003 Jun;11(2):162-5. [link]
  • Boahenn, Kwabena. 2005. "Neuromorphic Chips," Scientific American vol. 292, No. 5, P. 56-64.
  • Gibson, William. "Johnny Mnemonic." Burning Chrome. New York: Arbor House, 1986.
  • FreshMinds. Sigma scan pilot: evidence base. "What’s on your mind?" Prepared for the Horizon Scanning Centre, OST. 04/03/05
  • T Stieglitz et al, Implantable Biomedical Systems for Neural Prostheses, Engineering in Medicine and Biology, 58-65, 2005 [link]
  • Duncan Graham-Rowe, Brain implant "reads" monkeys' minds, New Scientist 8 July 2004 [link]
  • Neurodudes "Neural Prosthestics" Blog [link]
  • Development Gateway, Implications of the Convergence of Nano-Scale Technologies for Disabled People [link]
  • Paralysis Lost, Michael Craggs, Royal National Orthopaedic Hospital [link]


At A Glance:
When:
11–20 years
Where:
Global
How Fast:
Years
Likelihood:
Medium-High
Impact:
Medium-Low
Controversy:
Medium


Related Outlooks:

About this outlook: An outlook is an internally consistent, plausible view of the future based on the best expertise available. It is not a prediction of the future. The AT-A-GLANCE ratings suggest the scope, scale, and uncertainty associated with this outlook. Each outlook is also a working document, with contributors adding comments and edits to improve the forecast over time. Please see the revision history for earlier versions.



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