Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Computer Science, Nanotechnology
Keywords:	Nanotechnology - computing processors, nanotechnology, nanocomputing, biochemical nanocomputing
Outlook:	Nanoscale processors are likely to be widely adopted for general computing in most parts of the world by the middle of the century.
Summary Analysis:	Today the transistor paradigm dominates the integrated circuit industry. If the current progress in reducing scale and increasing performance is to continue however, we will need to find an alternative source of processing power. At the moment, there appears to be a number of possibilities and it is likely that we will use a combination of forms of computing power such as mechanical nanocomputers, electronic nanocomputers, chemical molecular computers, and quantum computers, all of which could work at significantly higher speeds, smaller scale, and lower costs. Computers based on nanoscale technology however are likely be extremely application specific - each molecular component employed might address only one specific problem. This would be quite different from modern VLSI computation, in which essentially all applications are run in the same way. Rather, nanotubes, quantum computing, and molecular computation might each serve diverse purposes relative to their material properties and associated advantages or disadvantages. Furthermore, nanoscale processors could have the potential to be embedded in living things, in medicine, on walls, in furniture, fabric, garments, hand tools, utensils, and toys, so that we will be able to interact with computer information in places as naturally as we now interact with physical things. Objects would be able to become increasingly active, mechanically mobile and self-reconfiguring, chemically and electrically active, and potentially computationally intelligent enough to act autonomously and proactively. Transistors, or something not unlike transistors, are likely to still be needed for memory storage and logic operations. First-generation nanoscale transistors will perhaps be carbon-nanotube-based, although there is also the potential for quantum dots and other forms of quantum computation to offer further improvements in performance, miniaturisation, and cost reduction. The technologies for processing and reading information on the individual dots has not yet been developed however. Widespread focused research on nanocomputing is currently under way at universities and private labs worldwide. More than 30 countries have national activities in nanoscale science and engineering.

	Implications:	Continued expansion in the adoption and application of computing devices Expansion of computing beyond forms like desktops, laptops, or handhelds Potential for high-powered computing capability to become ubiquitously embedded in our physical environment
	Early Indicators:	Forecasting by private manufacturers such as Intel of continuation of trends described by Moore’s Law Recent research at Oxford and Cambridge on heuristics and algorithms Work at the US National Institute of Standards along with colleagues from New Zealand and Germany on nanoscale quantum computing hardware Work at the Weizmann Institute of Science in Rehovot, Israel, on a programmable molecular computing machine composed of enzymes and DNA molecules instead of silicon microchips
	What to Watch:	As nanoscale computing becomes practical, large vested commercial interests like Intel increasingly shift R&D focus to nanoengineering. Revenue-producing products for quantum computation using carbon nanotubes become available by 2020, for quantum computation by 2040–2060, and for molecular computing by 2050.
	Parallels/Precedents:	The development and adoption of micro-scale computer processors
	Enablers/drivers:	Continuing successful research on nanomaterials and massively parallel computing architectures and applications Massive international investment in nanotechnologies Funding by governments and universities in the UK, the US, Europe, Israel, Japan, and China as well commercial enterprises of direct research leading toward nanoscale computing devices
	Leaders:	Regions: US, UK, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, China, Switzerland, Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, the Scandinavian countries Institutions: In the UK, the Universities of Birmingham, Leeds, Greenwich, Liverpool, Newcastle, Sheffield, Sussex, Surrey, plus Cambridge, Cranfield, Durham, Nottingham, Oxford, Southampton, and Warwick University University of California at Santa Barbara (for research into Quantum Dots) ETH Zurich [link] Nasa [link] IBM - Zurich Lab won Nobel Prize for inventing the Scanning Tunnelling Microscope, a key piece of nanotechnology equipment. [link] Hewlett-Packard [link] Nanocomputer Dream Team (International collaborative network) [link]
	Figures:
	Sources:	RAND Corp. 2003. "Beyond the Internet." (quoting Ernst & Young data) [link] R.M. Ramanthan and Vince Thomas, editors. 2005. Platform 2015: Intel Processor and Platform Evolution for the Next Decade. Intel Corporation. Kurzweil, Ray. The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence. New York: Viking 1999, pages 279-280. Kurzweil, Ray, The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Viking 2005, ISBN 0670033847 (mainly chapters 2-4, also see Kurzweil web site [link]) Chediak, Alex, Karen Scott, Peng Zhang. 2002. "The Future of Computing." University of California, Berkeley. [link] "Small Wonders, Endless Frontiers, A Review of the National Nanotechnology Initiative." Committee for the Review of the National Nanotechnology Initiative Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, National Research Council. Washington D.C.: National Academy Press, 2005. James R Heath (UCLA), Wires, Switches and Wiring: A route toward a chemically assembled electronic nanocomputer, Pure Applied Chem, 72, 1-2, 11-20, 2000 [link] Mitre Corporation Nanocomputer pages [link] Paul Beckett (RMIT Australia), Towards a Reconfigurable Nanocomputer Platform, no date given [link] Michael B Frank, Nanocomputer Systems Engineering, NanoEngineering World Forum 2003 [link] Lyshevski, S.E., Nanotechnology, quantum information theory and quantum computing, Nanotechnology, 309- 314, 2002 [link]

	At A Glance:	When:	21–50 years +
		Where:	Global
		How Fast:	Years
		Likelihood:	Medium-High
		Impact:	Medium-High
		Controversy:	Low

Related Outlooks: