Delta Scan: The Future of Science and Technology, 2005-2055: Promising Applications of Synthetic Biology

Key Pages

Category:
Science and Technology

Domain:
Biology and Biotechnology

Keywords:
Biotechnology & genetics - genetically modified organisms, biological physics, bioengineering, biologics, evolution, environmental remediation

Outlook:
Stretching the realm of possibilities, biological physicists and engineers are treating cells as tools that can be mechanically reworked for environmental and biomedical purposes. Expect new applications in the next 10 to 20 years but also intense debate about unintended consequences.

Summary Analysis:
In the 1970s, with knowledge of genetics growing rapidly, the ability to engineer life was conceived. Three decades later the possibilities for coaxing and crafting microbes to work for us have only expanded, and scientists are making practical headway in the emerging multidisciplinary field of synthetic biology – developing novel biological functions and systems. In this world, biology is a technology - a part, a tool, a machine, a factory - and research topics include genetic network design, biomimetics, energy sources, microfluidics, molecular machines, and biomaterials. In turn, this research has the potential to become the basis for an improved understanding of biology, as it involves creating controlled systems in which biological principles can be tested. Scientists have suggested that the field holds great potential for addressing problems in biomedicine, environmental remediation, and energy supply.

The concept that has shown the greatest early promise is fashioning bacteria into 'biofactories' to produce specific chemicals or biological compounds. Of great significance to global public health, Jay Keasling of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory has engineered a bacteria to produce artemisinin, a compound used to treat malaria. Artemisinin is found naturally in the wormwood plant but is costly to chemically synthesise or harvest. The same methods could theoretically be used to produce cancer drugs, such as Taxol, that are currently expensive.

Others are working on the construction of standardized sequences of DNA, 'biobricks' that could be inserted to produce predictable effects, or a cell that signals how many times it has divided. These projects will help the field develop new tools and methods in the next 3 to 10 years and will set the stage for future applications. New technologies can be expected in the next 10 to 20 years.

Given the debate in the UK regarding genetically modified organisms, this research, that appears to take GM to the next level, has the potential to reignite similar debates and concerns.

Implications:

Improvement in global public health as new and less costly treatments are developed for common diseases such as malaria
Increase in the supply of renewable energy and improvement in methods of environmental remediation
Growing perception of biology as an engineering science rather than a descriptive science, as biological training becomes infused with an engineering mentality that asks, 'What can we do?' rather than a naturalist mentality that asks, 'How does it work?'
Further blurring of the boundary between organic systems and physical systems

Early Indicators:

Creation in 2000 by Michael Elowitz and Stanislas Leibler, biological physicists, of a genetic circuit that produced a fluorescent protein
Successful completion in 2002 by Eckard Wimmer of a 3-year effort to create a polio virus from scratch
Production in 2004 by Jay Keasling at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory of an antimalaria drug using engineered bacteria
Hosting by MIT in June 2004 of the first conference on synthetic biology
Announcement in December 2004 by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation of a $42.5 million grant for research and development in synthetic biology
Opening in 2005 of the Berkeley Center for Synthetic Biology by the California Institute for Quantitative Biomedical Research
Listing in MIT’s Technology Review in 2005 of 'bacterial factories' as one of the top 10 emerging technologies

What to Watch:

Pharmaceutical industry leaders buy up small synthetic biology companies.
Global epidemics such as malaria are eradicated using biologics produced from bacteria.
Public debate grows about the uncertainties and unintended consequences of engineered organisms as new technologies are developed and introduced, and public concern flares up after the first 'biohacker' strike.

Parallels/Precedents:

Association of chemistry and engineering in the production of industrial chemicals and pharmaceuticals
Controversy over safety and ethics of genetically modified organisms

Enablers/drivers:

Decreasing cost of DNA sequencing and synthesis
New funding from private foundations, state and federal governments, and private industry
New voluntary safeguards and government regulations addressing public concerns about the new and uncertain research and applications

Leaders:
Regions:

US, Japan

Institutions:

MIT
University of California (Jay Keasling's pioneering work)
California Institute of Technology
University of Cambridge [link]
KEIO University, Japan (Mitsuhiro Itaya)
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich [link]
National Centre for Biological Sciences, Bangalore [link]

Figures:

Sources:

Ball, P. "Synthetic Biology: Starting from Scratch." Nature 431, no. 7009 (2004): 624-6.
Noonan, David. "It's a Gene Pool Party." Newsweek. Special Edition: The Future of Medicine, Summer 2005, 49-50.
Brent, R. "A Partnership between Biology and Engineering." Nat Biotechnol 22, no. 10 (2004): 1211-4.
Gibbs, W. W. "Synthetic Life." Scientific American 290, no. 5 (2004): 74-81.
Ferber, D. "Synthetic Biology. Microbes Made to Order." Science 303, no. 5655 (2004): 158-61.
"California Institute of Quantitative Biomedical Research" California Institute of Quantitative Biomedical Research. [link]
"Lawrence Berkeley Laboratories" Lawrence Berkeley Laboratories. [link]
Kanellos, Michael. "Gates Foundation to promote synthetic biology." CNET News.com. 13 Dec 2004. [link]
"Synthetic Biologists Reject Controversial Guidelines." New Scientist. May 23 2006 [link]
"Redesigning Life: Meet the Biohackers." New Scientist. May 20 2006 [link]
"Global Coalition Sounds the Alarm on Synthetic Biology, Demands Oversight and Societal Debate." May 19 2006. Genewatch UK [link]
"Synthetic Biology." April 2006. Bio Spectrum Asia Edition [link]
Dae-Kyun Ro. "Production of the antimalarial drug precursor artemisinic acid in engineered yeast." Letter to Nature. April 13 2006 [link]
Synthetic Biology (resource website) [link]
"Futures of Artificial Life." Nature. October 2004 [link]
Steven Benner and Michael Sismour. 2005. "Synthetic Biology." Nature Reviews Genetics. Vol. 6: 533 - 543 [link]
"Synthetic Biology: Applying Engineering to Biology." (European Commission) report of a NEST (New and Emerging Science and Technology)high-level working group [link]

At A Glance:
When:
11–20 years

Where:
Global

How Fast:
Years

Likelihood:
Medium-High

Impact:
Medium-Low

Controversy:
Medium

Related Outlooks:

About this outlook: An outlook is an internally consistent, plausible view of the future based on the best expertise available. It is not a prediction of the future. The AT-A-GLANCE ratings suggest the scope, scale, and uncertainty associated with this outlook. Each outlook is also a working document, with contributors adding comments and edits to improve the forecast over time. Please see the revision history for earlier versions.

Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Biology and Biotechnology
Keywords:	Biotechnology & genetics - genetically modified organisms, biological physics, bioengineering, biologics, evolution, environmental remediation
Outlook:	Stretching the realm of possibilities, biological physicists and engineers are treating cells as tools that can be mechanically reworked for environmental and biomedical purposes. Expect new applications in the next 10 to 20 years but also intense debate about unintended consequences.
Summary Analysis:	In the 1970s, with knowledge of genetics growing rapidly, the ability to engineer life was conceived. Three decades later the possibilities for coaxing and crafting microbes to work for us have only expanded, and scientists are making practical headway in the emerging multidisciplinary field of synthetic biology – developing novel biological functions and systems. In this world, biology is a technology - a part, a tool, a machine, a factory - and research topics include genetic network design, biomimetics, energy sources, microfluidics, molecular machines, and biomaterials. In turn, this research has the potential to become the basis for an improved understanding of biology, as it involves creating controlled systems in which biological principles can be tested. Scientists have suggested that the field holds great potential for addressing problems in biomedicine, environmental remediation, and energy supply. The concept that has shown the greatest early promise is fashioning bacteria into 'biofactories' to produce specific chemicals or biological compounds. Of great significance to global public health, Jay Keasling of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory has engineered a bacteria to produce artemisinin, a compound used to treat malaria. Artemisinin is found naturally in the wormwood plant but is costly to chemically synthesise or harvest. The same methods could theoretically be used to produce cancer drugs, such as Taxol, that are currently expensive. Others are working on the construction of standardized sequences of DNA, 'biobricks' that could be inserted to produce predictable effects, or a cell that signals how many times it has divided. These projects will help the field develop new tools and methods in the next 3 to 10 years and will set the stage for future applications. New technologies can be expected in the next 10 to 20 years. Given the debate in the UK regarding genetically modified organisms, this research, that appears to take GM to the next level, has the potential to reignite similar debates and concerns.

	Implications:	Improvement in global public health as new and less costly treatments are developed for common diseases such as malaria Increase in the supply of renewable energy and improvement in methods of environmental remediation Growing perception of biology as an engineering science rather than a descriptive science, as biological training becomes infused with an engineering mentality that asks, 'What can we do?' rather than a naturalist mentality that asks, 'How does it work?' Further blurring of the boundary between organic systems and physical systems
	Early Indicators:	Creation in 2000 by Michael Elowitz and Stanislas Leibler, biological physicists, of a genetic circuit that produced a fluorescent protein Successful completion in 2002 by Eckard Wimmer of a 3-year effort to create a polio virus from scratch Production in 2004 by Jay Keasling at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory of an antimalaria drug using engineered bacteria Hosting by MIT in June 2004 of the first conference on synthetic biology Announcement in December 2004 by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation of a $42.5 million grant for research and development in synthetic biology Opening in 2005 of the Berkeley Center for Synthetic Biology by the California Institute for Quantitative Biomedical Research Listing in MIT’s Technology Review in 2005 of 'bacterial factories' as one of the top 10 emerging technologies
	What to Watch:	Pharmaceutical industry leaders buy up small synthetic biology companies. Global epidemics such as malaria are eradicated using biologics produced from bacteria. Public debate grows about the uncertainties and unintended consequences of engineered organisms as new technologies are developed and introduced, and public concern flares up after the first 'biohacker' strike.
	Parallels/Precedents:	Association of chemistry and engineering in the production of industrial chemicals and pharmaceuticals Controversy over safety and ethics of genetically modified organisms
	Enablers/drivers:	Decreasing cost of DNA sequencing and synthesis New funding from private foundations, state and federal governments, and private industry New voluntary safeguards and government regulations addressing public concerns about the new and uncertain research and applications
	Leaders:	Regions: US, Japan Institutions: MIT University of California (Jay Keasling's pioneering work) California Institute of Technology University of Cambridge [link] KEIO University, Japan (Mitsuhiro Itaya) Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich [link] National Centre for Biological Sciences, Bangalore [link]
	Figures:
	Sources:	Ball, P. "Synthetic Biology: Starting from Scratch." Nature 431, no. 7009 (2004): 624-6. Noonan, David. "It's a Gene Pool Party." Newsweek. Special Edition: The Future of Medicine, Summer 2005, 49-50. Brent, R. "A Partnership between Biology and Engineering." Nat Biotechnol 22, no. 10 (2004): 1211-4. Gibbs, W. W. "Synthetic Life." Scientific American 290, no. 5 (2004): 74-81. Ferber, D. "Synthetic Biology. Microbes Made to Order." Science 303, no. 5655 (2004): 158-61. "California Institute of Quantitative Biomedical Research" California Institute of Quantitative Biomedical Research. [link] "Lawrence Berkeley Laboratories" Lawrence Berkeley Laboratories. [link] Kanellos, Michael. "Gates Foundation to promote synthetic biology." CNET News.com. 13 Dec 2004. [link] "Synthetic Biologists Reject Controversial Guidelines." New Scientist. May 23 2006 [link] "Redesigning Life: Meet the Biohackers." New Scientist. May 20 2006 [link] "Global Coalition Sounds the Alarm on Synthetic Biology, Demands Oversight and Societal Debate." May 19 2006. Genewatch UK [link] "Synthetic Biology." April 2006. Bio Spectrum Asia Edition [link] Dae-Kyun Ro. "Production of the antimalarial drug precursor artemisinic acid in engineered yeast." Letter to Nature. April 13 2006 [link] Synthetic Biology (resource website) [link] "Futures of Artificial Life." Nature. October 2004 [link] Steven Benner and Michael Sismour. 2005. "Synthetic Biology." Nature Reviews Genetics. Vol. 6: 533 - 543 [link] "Synthetic Biology: Applying Engineering to Biology." (European Commission) report of a NEST (New and Emerging Science and Technology)high-level working group [link]

At A Glance:	When:	11–20 years
	Where:	Global
	How Fast:	Years
	Likelihood:	Medium-High
	Impact:	Medium-Low
	Controversy:	Medium