Delta Scan: The Future of Science and Technology, 2005-2055: Increased Mobility for Scientists

Key Pages

Category:
Science and Technology

Domain:
Structure of Science

Keywords:
Earth monitoring - fieldwork, instrumentation, smart dust, sensors

Outlook:
Smaller, lighter instruments promise to enable field scientists to conduct research in increasingly varied environments.

Summary Analysis:
The growth of ever-smaller, self-contained instrument packages is expected to create opportunities to distribute scientific research and data-gathering in new social and geographical situations. For example, in a project known as CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container), atmospheric research scientists have installed an instrument package in space the German airline Lufthansa has given them in several of its planes' cargo holds. The instruments effectively turn the planes into mobile laboratories and data collectors as they fly around the world. Some of the research involves questions of direct interest to the airline industry (for instance, "How much radiation are aircrews exposed to?"), while others have much broader interest (for example, "What is the worldwide distribution of gases and pollutants in the atmosphere?"). The instrument package employed is an automobile-sized package that measures gases in the tropopause, the atmospheric layer between the troposphere (where we live) and the stratosphere. The advantage of using a commercial aircraft is that data is obtained on a continuous basis from regions where research aircraft would otherwise fly only sporadically.

In the near future, with the maturity and commercialisation of smart dust technologies coupled with sensors and wireless networks, these instrument packages are likely to become even smaller and cheaper. Already, smart dust systems are being deployed in caves, algae blooms, and other hard-to-monitor areas, to gather information about their microenvironments. In the next decade, instrument packages are likely to become small enough to be transported by automobile (for monitoring road conditions or gathering soil samples) or by people (for gathering data on air quality, for example).

Implications:

Increased opportunity to place scientific instruments in a wider range of environments
Improvements in climate science, high-altitude atmospheric research, and geology
Increased opportunity for amateurs to participate in basic scientific research

Early Indicators:

Current use of self-contained instrument packages like that used in the CARIBIC Project

What to Watch:

Smart dust based instruments are increasingly used in field geology, archaeology and historic preservation, atmospheric science, field biology, and public health.

Parallels/Precedents:

Enablers/drivers:

Continued development of mobile computing and communications technologies
Continued development of smart dust, ad hoc wireless networks, and sensors

Leaders:

European Exo/astrobiology Network Association [link]
Centre for Ancient DNA and Evolution, University of Copenhagen [link]
World Water Monitoring Day [link]
British Antarctic Survey [link]
The Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK [link]
National Oceanography Centre, UK [link]

Figures:

Sources:

"CARIBIC Project" CARIBIC Project [link]
Schaffrath, Stefan. 2004. "Lufthansa: Climatic research at cruising altitude," RTCC Web site [link].
Pescovitz, David. 2004. "Sensor Networks from the Silk Road to the Dead Sea." Lab Notes, April [link]
Satyanarayanan, Mahadev. 2003. "Of Smart Dust and Brilliant Rocks," IEEE Pervasive Computing, 2:4 (October-December 2003), 2-4.
Committee on Environmental and Natural Resources. Ecological Forecasting: Agenda for the Future. National Biological Information Infrastructure, 2004.
"Proposal of Next-Generation, Real-Time Seafloor Globe Monitoring Cable Network." Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo [link]
Kirchengast G. " Climate Monitoring by Advanced Spaceborne Sounding and Atmospheric Modelling." University of Graz/ Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, Austria. Interim Report. June 2005.
Sir Magdi Yacoub. "Body Sensor Networks: Technical Challenges and Clinical Opportunities." 2005 [link]

At A Glance:
When:
3–10 years

Where:
Global

How Fast:
Years

Likelihood:
Medium-Low

Impact:
Low

Controversy:
Unknown

Related Outlooks:

About this outlook: An outlook is an internally consist, plausible view of the future based on the best expertise available. It is not a prediction of the future. The AT-A-GLANCE ratings suggest the scope, scale, and uncertainty associated with this outlook. Each outlook is also a working document, with contributors adding comments and edits to improve the forecast over time. Please see the revision history for earlier versions.

Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Structure of Science
Keywords:	Earth monitoring - fieldwork, instrumentation, smart dust, sensors
Outlook:	Smaller, lighter instruments promise to enable field scientists to conduct research in increasingly varied environments.
Summary Analysis:	The growth of ever-smaller, self-contained instrument packages is expected to create opportunities to distribute scientific research and data-gathering in new social and geographical situations. For example, in a project known as CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container), atmospheric research scientists have installed an instrument package in space the German airline Lufthansa has given them in several of its planes' cargo holds. The instruments effectively turn the planes into mobile laboratories and data collectors as they fly around the world. Some of the research involves questions of direct interest to the airline industry (for instance, "How much radiation are aircrews exposed to?"), while others have much broader interest (for example, "What is the worldwide distribution of gases and pollutants in the atmosphere?"). The instrument package employed is an automobile-sized package that measures gases in the tropopause, the atmospheric layer between the troposphere (where we live) and the stratosphere. The advantage of using a commercial aircraft is that data is obtained on a continuous basis from regions where research aircraft would otherwise fly only sporadically. In the near future, with the maturity and commercialisation of smart dust technologies coupled with sensors and wireless networks, these instrument packages are likely to become even smaller and cheaper. Already, smart dust systems are being deployed in caves, algae blooms, and other hard-to-monitor areas, to gather information about their microenvironments. In the next decade, instrument packages are likely to become small enough to be transported by automobile (for monitoring road conditions or gathering soil samples) or by people (for gathering data on air quality, for example).

	Implications:	Increased opportunity to place scientific instruments in a wider range of environments Improvements in climate science, high-altitude atmospheric research, and geology Increased opportunity for amateurs to participate in basic scientific research
	Early Indicators:	Current use of self-contained instrument packages like that used in the CARIBIC Project
	What to Watch:	Smart dust based instruments are increasingly used in field geology, archaeology and historic preservation, atmospheric science, field biology, and public health.
	Parallels/Precedents:
	Enablers/drivers:	Continued development of mobile computing and communications technologies Continued development of smart dust, ad hoc wireless networks, and sensors
	Leaders:	European Exo/astrobiology Network Association [link] Centre for Ancient DNA and Evolution, University of Copenhagen [link] World Water Monitoring Day [link] British Antarctic Survey [link] The Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK [link] National Oceanography Centre, UK [link]
	Figures:
	Sources:	"CARIBIC Project" CARIBIC Project [link] Schaffrath, Stefan. 2004. "Lufthansa: Climatic research at cruising altitude," RTCC Web site [link]. Pescovitz, David. 2004. "Sensor Networks from the Silk Road to the Dead Sea." Lab Notes, April [link] Satyanarayanan, Mahadev. 2003. "Of Smart Dust and Brilliant Rocks," IEEE Pervasive Computing, 2:4 (October-December 2003), 2-4. Committee on Environmental and Natural Resources. Ecological Forecasting: Agenda for the Future. National Biological Information Infrastructure, 2004. "Proposal of Next-Generation, Real-Time Seafloor Globe Monitoring Cable Network." Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo [link] Kirchengast G. " Climate Monitoring by Advanced Spaceborne Sounding and Atmospheric Modelling." University of Graz/ Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, Austria. Interim Report. June 2005. Sir Magdi Yacoub. "Body Sensor Networks: Technical Challenges and Clinical Opportunities." 2005 [link]

At A Glance:	When:	3–10 years
	Where:	Global
	How Fast:	Years
	Likelihood:	Medium-Low
	Impact:	Low
	Controversy:	Unknown