Delta Scan: The Future of Science and Technology, 2005-2055: Broadening Amateur Participation in Science

Key Pages

Category:
Science and Technology

Domain:
Structure of Science, Computer Science

Keywords:
Knowledge, communication & learning - open source, distributed computing, grid computing, peer-to-peer networking, GPS

Outlook:
Interested amateurs are likely to have increased opportunities in the future to donate resources, time, or labor in support of scientific research, thanks largely to low-cost distributed computing.

Summary Analysis:
The growth of peer-to-peer networking systems has created opportunities for amateurs to play a role in scientific research by donating computer time or labor. The pioneers in this arena are SETI@Home, Folding@Home, and other projects that invite people to load a piece of analytical software onto their computers. During periods of inactivity, the software downloads some data, analyses it, and then sends back the results. These programs enable those with computers to ‘donate’ processor cycles to computationally intensive scientific or charitable activities.

It's important to remember the difference between:

Doing science on a personal level, and for the individual being involved in the science as a scientist. Advanced computer systems could help leverage individuals.

Exploiting distributed resources (e.g., SETI@Home) without the individual participating much themselves. Other examples are informed participation in medical developments (e.g., on the individual). In the future, people (and their houses, etc) will have lots of sensors, so possibilities here are substantial - especially for informing social policy (energy use, etc).

Gathering data, typically geographically specific data - or otherwise being a lab assistant, the individual devoting time and basic labour. Involving school children here, especially, can make them feel part of doing science, which will (hopefully) influence them for the rest of their lives.

SETI@Home, Folding@Home and other experiments have shown that amateurs can donate their time to analyse scientific data directly. The NASA Clickworkers system put volunteers through a simple training program to do routine analysis of Martian landscapes. The success of the system suggests that complex professional tasks done by highly trained and salaried individuals can be reorganized to tap a vast pool of tens of thousands of trained volunteers.

The strategy of Clickworkers and SETI@Home is to make science more accessible by making pieces of it very simple and by taking advantage of low-cost computing and communications. In the future, it is possible that more scientific research projects willdraw upon volunteered equipment or labour. In addition to distributed computing projects and efforts to mobilize volunteer observers, volunteers could be involved in gathering data using existing mobile communications or computing technologies -- for example, taking pictures of flora and fauna at specified times, or noting the GPS coordinates of certain objects.

Peer-to-peer and analytical computing projects have shown that it is possible to mobilize massive quantities of unused processing power or unskilled labour to do basic data analysis; such groups could be mobilized by advocacy and interest groups (e.g., supporters of breast cancer research or environmental causes) to create massive networks of volunteer labour. Expert knowledge that currently is underused in scientific research could be harnessed by custom-designed instruments with simple interfaces Finally, a new generation of sensor and smart dust technology could be used to make small instruments that volunteers carry with them, scatter about their environments, or leave in specific places (see "Increased Mobility for Scientists").

Implications:

The growth of amateurs will not come at the expense of established, professional scientists. In other fields, amateurs may be breaking the monopolies that professionals have had (most notably on the news, and the interpretation of the news), but they aren't doing so in science, or science-intensive fields. What's more likely to happen is that the base of scientific pyramid will expand, and the opportunities for contributing to science will diversity. It will become easier for amateurs to participate in research projects, and to translate their local knowledge into scientific language
Movement of scientific research from the desktop to the field
Increased public support for science
Wider involvement in and understanding of complex phenomena like climate change

Early Indicators:

Proliferation of open-source, distributed computing and analysis projects such as Clickworkers and SETI@Home

What to Watch:

Volunteer projects are organised around popular issues like climate change and pollution.
NGOs and advocacy groups like Greenpeace or the World Wildlife Fund organise research projects for amateurs.

Parallels/Precedents:

Amateur participation in science before the 20th century
Open source development methods in software
Developments in journalism and political commentary (roughly parallel, but usually interpreted more as challenges to established authorities)

Enablers/drivers:

Falling cost and increasing ubiquity of mobile communications and computing technologies
Growth of the open source movement
Establishment of the precedent of distributed computing projects in the 1990s and 2000s

Leaders:

World Water Monitoring Day [link]
Citizen Science, Canada [link]
Citizen Science at the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds [link]
Earthwatch Institute [link]
Live Lab [link]
SETI@home [link]
Folding@home [link]
CPUShare [link]

Figures:

Sources:

Irwin A. "Citizen Science: A Study of People, Expertise and Sustainable Development." Routledge. London. 1995
Grygier M. et al. "Distributional survey of large branchiopods of rice paddies in Shiga Prefecture, Japan: a Lake Biwa Museum project based on lay amateur participation." Hydrobiologia. Vol 486. No. 1. October 2002. pp 133 - 146 [link]
Thomsen D. "Community Based Research: An opportunity for Collaboration and Social Change." Australian School of Environmental Studies, Griffith University [link]
Carr A. Centre for Environmental Strategy University of Surrey, Guildford. "Why do we all Need Community Science?" Society and Natural Resources. Vol 17. No. 9. October 2004 [link]
Ball, Philip. 2004. "The Common Good," Nature (August 20 2003).
Benkler, Yochai. "Coase's Penguin, or Linux and the Nature of the Firm," Yale Law Journal 369 (2002), 396-400 [link].
Leadbeater, Charles, and Paul Miller. The Pro-Am Revolution: How enthusiasts are changing our economy and society. London: Demos, 2004. [link]
Rheingold, Howard. Smart Mobs: The Next Social Revolution New York: Perseus, 2002.

At A Glance:
When:
11–20 years

Where:
Global

How Fast:
Years

Likelihood:
Medium-High

Impact:
Medium-Low

Controversy:
Low

Related Outlooks:

About this outlook: An outlook is an internally consist, plausible view of the future based on the best expertise available. It is not a prediction of the future. The AT-A-GLANCE ratings suggest the scope, scale, and uncertainty associated with this outlook. Each outlook is also a working document, with contributors adding comments and edits to improve the forecast over time. Please see the revision history for earlier versions.

Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Structure of Science, Computer Science
Keywords:	Knowledge, communication & learning - open source, distributed computing, grid computing, peer-to-peer networking, GPS
Outlook:	Interested amateurs are likely to have increased opportunities in the future to donate resources, time, or labor in support of scientific research, thanks largely to low-cost distributed computing.
Summary Analysis:	The growth of peer-to-peer networking systems has created opportunities for amateurs to play a role in scientific research by donating computer time or labor. The pioneers in this arena are SETI@Home, Folding@Home, and other projects that invite people to load a piece of analytical software onto their computers. During periods of inactivity, the software downloads some data, analyses it, and then sends back the results. These programs enable those with computers to ‘donate’ processor cycles to computationally intensive scientific or charitable activities. It's important to remember the difference between: Doing science on a personal level, and for the individual being involved in the science as a scientist. Advanced computer systems could help leverage individuals. Exploiting distributed resources (e.g., SETI@Home) without the individual participating much themselves. Other examples are informed participation in medical developments (e.g., on the individual). In the future, people (and their houses, etc) will have lots of sensors, so possibilities here are substantial - especially for informing social policy (energy use, etc). Gathering data, typically geographically specific data - or otherwise being a lab assistant, the individual devoting time and basic labour. Involving school children here, especially, can make them feel part of doing science, which will (hopefully) influence them for the rest of their lives. SETI@Home, Folding@Home and other experiments have shown that amateurs can donate their time to analyse scientific data directly. The NASA Clickworkers system put volunteers through a simple training program to do routine analysis of Martian landscapes. The success of the system suggests that complex professional tasks done by highly trained and salaried individuals can be reorganized to tap a vast pool of tens of thousands of trained volunteers. The strategy of Clickworkers and SETI@Home is to make science more accessible by making pieces of it very simple and by taking advantage of low-cost computing and communications. In the future, it is possible that more scientific research projects willdraw upon volunteered equipment or labour. In addition to distributed computing projects and efforts to mobilize volunteer observers, volunteers could be involved in gathering data using existing mobile communications or computing technologies -- for example, taking pictures of flora and fauna at specified times, or noting the GPS coordinates of certain objects. Peer-to-peer and analytical computing projects have shown that it is possible to mobilize massive quantities of unused processing power or unskilled labour to do basic data analysis; such groups could be mobilized by advocacy and interest groups (e.g., supporters of breast cancer research or environmental causes) to create massive networks of volunteer labour. Expert knowledge that currently is underused in scientific research could be harnessed by custom-designed instruments with simple interfaces Finally, a new generation of sensor and smart dust technology could be used to make small instruments that volunteers carry with them, scatter about their environments, or leave in specific places (see "Increased Mobility for Scientists").

	Implications:	The growth of amateurs will not come at the expense of established, professional scientists. In other fields, amateurs may be breaking the monopolies that professionals have had (most notably on the news, and the interpretation of the news), but they aren't doing so in science, or science-intensive fields. What's more likely to happen is that the base of scientific pyramid will expand, and the opportunities for contributing to science will diversity. It will become easier for amateurs to participate in research projects, and to translate their local knowledge into scientific language Movement of scientific research from the desktop to the field Increased public support for science Wider involvement in and understanding of complex phenomena like climate change
	Early Indicators:	Proliferation of open-source, distributed computing and analysis projects such as Clickworkers and SETI@Home
	What to Watch:	Volunteer projects are organised around popular issues like climate change and pollution. NGOs and advocacy groups like Greenpeace or the World Wildlife Fund organise research projects for amateurs.
	Parallels/Precedents:	Amateur participation in science before the 20th century Open source development methods in software Developments in journalism and political commentary (roughly parallel, but usually interpreted more as challenges to established authorities)
	Enablers/drivers:	Falling cost and increasing ubiquity of mobile communications and computing technologies Growth of the open source movement Establishment of the precedent of distributed computing projects in the 1990s and 2000s
	Leaders:	World Water Monitoring Day [link] Citizen Science, Canada [link] Citizen Science at the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds [link] Earthwatch Institute [link] Live Lab [link] SETI@home [link] Folding@home [link] CPUShare [link]
	Figures:
	Sources:	Irwin A. "Citizen Science: A Study of People, Expertise and Sustainable Development." Routledge. London. 1995 Grygier M. et al. "Distributional survey of large branchiopods of rice paddies in Shiga Prefecture, Japan: a Lake Biwa Museum project based on lay amateur participation." Hydrobiologia. Vol 486. No. 1. October 2002. pp 133 - 146 [link] Thomsen D. "Community Based Research: An opportunity for Collaboration and Social Change." Australian School of Environmental Studies, Griffith University [link] Carr A. Centre for Environmental Strategy University of Surrey, Guildford. "Why do we all Need Community Science?" Society and Natural Resources. Vol 17. No. 9. October 2004 [link] Ball, Philip. 2004. "The Common Good," Nature (August 20 2003). Benkler, Yochai. "Coase's Penguin, or Linux and the Nature of the Firm," Yale Law Journal 369 (2002), 396-400 [link]. Leadbeater, Charles, and Paul Miller. The Pro-Am Revolution: How enthusiasts are changing our economy and society. London: Demos, 2004. [link] Rheingold, Howard. Smart Mobs: The Next Social Revolution New York: Perseus, 2002.

At A Glance:	When:	11–20 years
	Where:	Global
	How Fast:	Years
	Likelihood:	Medium-High
	Impact:	Medium-Low
	Controversy:	Low