Delta Scan: The Future of Science and Technology, 2005-2055: Progress in Cancer Detection and Treatment

Key Pages

Category:
Science and Technology

Domain:
Biology and Biotechnology

Keywords:
Biotechnology & genetics - medicine, disease, nanotechnology, health care, cancer, biomarker patterning, theranostics

Outlook:
Promising research is expected to lead to vastly improved detection and treatment of cancer within the next 10 years.

Summary Analysis:
While substantial challenges to early diagnosis and treatment of cancer remain, the basic research and data collection done over the last 33 years have made meaningful contributions. The sequencing of the genome is enabling rapid exploration at the genetic, protein, and nanoscale and there are large case databases. Promising research is being done in such fields as molecular diagnostics, theranostics (individual diagnostics and testing of the effects of treatment), systems and nanosystems biology, and biomarker patterning and discovery. These developments, coupled with the priority and emphasis placed by funding bodies on tackling cancer, suggest that more and more ways of predicting, preventing and treating cancers are likely in the near future.

Interestingly however, the concerted opinion is that business, regulatory, and organizational obstacles may be as challenging as the scientific and technology questions. And as new technology makes it into hospitals, health care professionals must be trained to utilize the tools and also interpret the results, both non-trivial challenges.

Implications:

Growing importance of early diagnosis and increasing prevalence of full-body scans and dermatological checks

Early Indicators:

Recent discovery that telomerase enzyme, a ribonucleic protein, is responsible for the unchecked growth of cells seen in multiple cancers
Advent of the use of SNP mapping to identify individuals at high risk of developing certain cancers
Recent development of a simple and inexpensive technique to detect oral cancer by spraying gold nanoparticles onto cells, based on finding that these nanoparticles are 600% more likely to bind to cancer cell antibodies than to normal cells

What to Watch:

Research interest and dollars shift toward more stubborn cancers, such as that of the pancreas, and result in mitigation of those cancers as well.
Drugs that improve the quality of life with the disease and that halt the spread of the cancer precede treatments and drugs that cure cancer.
Drugs are introduced that are genetically based, rather than anatomically based, to provide individualized treatments that are increasingly likely to be efficacious and that have greatly reduced side-effects.

Parallels/Precedents:

Dramatic progress in addressing childhood cancer, with 8 out of 10 children diagnosed with cancer now living into adulthood
Development of Taxol in the 1990s revolutionizing the treatment of ovarian cancer

Enablers/drivers:

Continuing improvement of methods for early detection of cancer and tumors
Development of new technologies for biochemical and genetic testing of tumors
Merger of research disciplines -- in particular, pharmacology, genomics, comparative genomics, functional genomics, proteomics, and bioinformatics -- resulting in entirely new diagnostics and treatments

Leaders:
Institutions:

Whitehead Institute
Wellcome Trust Sanger Centre Cancer Genome Project [link]
Washington University (St. Louis)
Stanford University
International Agency for Research on Cancer, France [link]
Cancer Research UK [link]
European Institute of Oncology [link]
Institut Gustave-Roussy, France [link]

Figures:

Sources:

Onyango, P. "The Role of Emerging Genomics and Proteomics Technologies in Cancer Drug Target Discovery." Current Cancer Drug Targets March 2004.
Parkin, D. Max, Freddie Bray, J. Ferlay, and Paola Pisani, "Global Cancer Statistics, 2002." CA Cancer J Clin 2005 55: 74-108
Leveraging Multi-Sector Technology Development Resources and Capabilities to Accelerate Progress Against Cancer: A National Cancer Institute Roundtable; January 20-21, 2004
Kelland, LR. "Telomerase inhibitors: targeting the vulnerable end of cancer?" Anti-Cancer Drugs 2000, 11: 503-513.
Sikora, Karol. "Future Drugs Limited." Leveraging Multi-Sector Technology Development Resources and Capabilities to Accelerate Progress Against Cancer: A National Cancer Institute Roundtable.
Seiyuma, Hiroyuki et al. "Telomere Shortening and Growth Inhibition of Human Cancer Cells by Novel Synthetic Telomerase Inhibitors MST-312, MST-295, and MST-199," Mol Cancer Ther. 2002 Jul;1(9):657-65.
Bradbury J. "Nanoshell Destruction of Inoperable Tumours." The Lancet Oncology, December 2003 [link]
Jameson J. "Nanotechnology and Some of its Future Medical Applications." Medlink, 2005 [link]
"Cancer Special Report." New Scientist [link]
"The Forgotten Front." New Scientist. March 20 2004 [link]
"Cancer Genomics: Revolutionizing Treatment and Reshaping Markets through Targeted Therapies." [link]
"Nanomedicine. An ESF European Medical Research Councils Forward Look Report." [link]
"Portrait of a Tumour." July 3 2002. "The Daily Telegraph" [link]

At A Glance:
When:
3–10 years

Where:
Global

How Fast:
Years

Likelihood:
Medium-Low

Impact:
Medium-Low

Controversy:
High

Related Outlooks:

About this outlook: An outlook is an internally consistent, plausible view of the future based on the best expertise available. It is not a prediction of the future. The AT-A-GLANCE ratings suggest the scope, scale, and uncertainty associated with this outlook. Each outlook is also a working document, with contributors adding comments and edits to improve the forecast over time. Please see the revision history for earlier versions.

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Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Biology and Biotechnology
Keywords:	Biotechnology & genetics - medicine, disease, nanotechnology, health care, cancer, biomarker patterning, theranostics
Outlook:	Promising research is expected to lead to vastly improved detection and treatment of cancer within the next 10 years.
Summary Analysis:	While substantial challenges to early diagnosis and treatment of cancer remain, the basic research and data collection done over the last 33 years have made meaningful contributions. The sequencing of the genome is enabling rapid exploration at the genetic, protein, and nanoscale and there are large case databases. Promising research is being done in such fields as molecular diagnostics, theranostics (individual diagnostics and testing of the effects of treatment), systems and nanosystems biology, and biomarker patterning and discovery. These developments, coupled with the priority and emphasis placed by funding bodies on tackling cancer, suggest that more and more ways of predicting, preventing and treating cancers are likely in the near future. Interestingly however, the concerted opinion is that business, regulatory, and organizational obstacles may be as challenging as the scientific and technology questions. And as new technology makes it into hospitals, health care professionals must be trained to utilize the tools and also interpret the results, both non-trivial challenges.

	Implications:	Growing importance of early diagnosis and increasing prevalence of full-body scans and dermatological checks
	Early Indicators:	Recent discovery that telomerase enzyme, a ribonucleic protein, is responsible for the unchecked growth of cells seen in multiple cancers Advent of the use of SNP mapping to identify individuals at high risk of developing certain cancers Recent development of a simple and inexpensive technique to detect oral cancer by spraying gold nanoparticles onto cells, based on finding that these nanoparticles are 600% more likely to bind to cancer cell antibodies than to normal cells
	What to Watch:	Research interest and dollars shift toward more stubborn cancers, such as that of the pancreas, and result in mitigation of those cancers as well. Drugs that improve the quality of life with the disease and that halt the spread of the cancer precede treatments and drugs that cure cancer. Drugs are introduced that are genetically based, rather than anatomically based, to provide individualized treatments that are increasingly likely to be efficacious and that have greatly reduced side-effects.
	Parallels/Precedents:	Dramatic progress in addressing childhood cancer, with 8 out of 10 children diagnosed with cancer now living into adulthood Development of Taxol in the 1990s revolutionizing the treatment of ovarian cancer
	Enablers/drivers:	Continuing improvement of methods for early detection of cancer and tumors Development of new technologies for biochemical and genetic testing of tumors Merger of research disciplines -- in particular, pharmacology, genomics, comparative genomics, functional genomics, proteomics, and bioinformatics -- resulting in entirely new diagnostics and treatments
	Leaders:	Institutions: Whitehead Institute Wellcome Trust Sanger Centre Cancer Genome Project [link] Washington University (St. Louis) Stanford University International Agency for Research on Cancer, France [link] Cancer Research UK [link] European Institute of Oncology [link] Institut Gustave-Roussy, France [link]
	Figures:
	Sources:	Onyango, P. "The Role of Emerging Genomics and Proteomics Technologies in Cancer Drug Target Discovery." Current Cancer Drug Targets March 2004. Parkin, D. Max, Freddie Bray, J. Ferlay, and Paola Pisani, "Global Cancer Statistics, 2002." CA Cancer J Clin 2005 55: 74-108 Leveraging Multi-Sector Technology Development Resources and Capabilities to Accelerate Progress Against Cancer: A National Cancer Institute Roundtable; January 20-21, 2004 Kelland, LR. "Telomerase inhibitors: targeting the vulnerable end of cancer?" Anti-Cancer Drugs 2000, 11: 503-513. Sikora, Karol. "Future Drugs Limited." Leveraging Multi-Sector Technology Development Resources and Capabilities to Accelerate Progress Against Cancer: A National Cancer Institute Roundtable. Seiyuma, Hiroyuki et al. "Telomere Shortening and Growth Inhibition of Human Cancer Cells by Novel Synthetic Telomerase Inhibitors MST-312, MST-295, and MST-199," Mol Cancer Ther. 2002 Jul;1(9):657-65. Bradbury J. "Nanoshell Destruction of Inoperable Tumours." The Lancet Oncology, December 2003 [link] Jameson J. "Nanotechnology and Some of its Future Medical Applications." Medlink, 2005 [link] "Cancer Special Report." New Scientist [link] "The Forgotten Front." New Scientist. March 20 2004 [link] "Cancer Genomics: Revolutionizing Treatment and Reshaping Markets through Targeted Therapies." [link] "Nanomedicine. An ESF European Medical Research Councils Forward Look Report." [link] "Portrait of a Tumour." July 3 2002. "The Daily Telegraph" [link]

At A Glance:	When:	3–10 years
	Where:	Global
	How Fast:	Years
	Likelihood:	Medium-Low
	Impact:	Medium-Low
	Controversy:	High