Delta Scan: The Future of Science and Technology, 2005-2055: Growing Market for 'Lifestyle' Drugs

Key Pages

Category:
Science and Technology

Domain:
Biology and Biotechnology

Keywords:
Life course, lifestyles & health - medicine, health care, lifestyle medications

Outlook:
Drugs for non-clinical conditions promise to be used widely by select population segments as forms of self-medication to optimise performance.

Summary Analysis:
Interest in 'lifestyle drugs' has been rising since the use of diazepam to treat mental distress in the 1960s. Although these drugs have occasionally stirred an ethical debate, little attempt has been made by governments to restrict their availability. The market for such medications is growing fast: it now exceeds $23 billion, according to Research and Markets, and is forecast to reach $27 billion by 2007. Drugs in this category range from those for halting or reversing male pattern baldness to those for treating social phobia and enhancing mental performance.

Societal and consumer acceptance, together with the economic incentives to enter the lifestyle medications market, could accelerate the development of new drugs - many drug companies have entered the lifestyle and smart medications markets, which Deutsche Bank estimates represent 5% of the overall drug market. Additionally, a number of companies are beginning to play an active role in defining new disorders that can be treated with new drugs or extensions of existing medications. Unless there is an unexpected backlash, this are could experience much faster growth than traditional drugs used to treat diseases. Methods for identifying and developing the latter have resulted in a slow and costly drug pipeline (especially for 'blockbusters'), whereas there is little competition for new lifestyle drugs in the wide-open expanse of 'social health'. Furthermore, significantly greater liability is associated with drug treatments that potentially save lives than with lifestyle drugs. Consequently, the profitability of lifestyle drugs will increase while the number of life-threatening diseases among large, affluent populations decreases.

As costs of health care increase however, lifestyle medications are likely to become the province of the affluent who can pay for these treatments directly or can afford premium health insurance plans.

Implications:

Increased social stratification as affluent patients see marked economic and social benefits from ever more capable drugs

Early Indicators:

Introduction of fluoxetine to treat social anxiety disorder, finasteride for male pattern baldness, sildenafil for male erectile dysfunction, and orlistat for obesity
Research now under way at drug companies such as Cortex Pharmaceuticals, Cytos Biotechnology, and EpiTan that promises to bring about new medications
Rise in US prescriptions for Ritalin (methylphenidate) and similar drugs from 2.5 million in 1991 to 15 million in 1999
Deutsche Bank's forecast that lifestyle drug sales will rise 10% each year until 2010

What to Watch:

Different regulations are developed to apply to lifestyle drugs in contrast to typical pharmaceuticals.
Individuals decide to make health trade-offs in exchange for lifestyle improvements, as has been seen with fen-phen and dexfenfluramine (both of which address obesity).
Higher profits from lifestyle drugs channel R&D investment into these larger opportunities, as a substitute for the failing business model based on 'blockbuster drugs'.

Parallels/Precedents:

Enablers/Drivers:

Demographic changes, most notably aging of the Baby Boomer generation
Increasing acceptance of direct-to-consumer (DTC) marketing strategies
Increase in disposable income for certain population segments

Leaders:
Regions:

US and the EU

Institutions:

Cortex Pharmaceuticals (research on CX717, an ampakine compound that offers improved performance on memory tests and increased alertness)
Cytos Biotechnology (testing of a vaccine that binds nicotine to a protein mass, causing antibodies to attack the nicotine and prevent neural stimulation) [link]
EpiTan (development of the protein melanotan as an injection to prevent skin cancer -- and which results in 'tanned' skin)
Sanofi-Aventis (French company working on Acomplia (rimonabant), which fights both obesity and smoking) [link]
Direct Response Marketing (UK lifestyle drug sales company) [link]
Bristol Neuroscience, Bristol University, UK [link]
Centre for the Mind, University of Sydney [link]
European Brain Institute, Italy [link]
Brain and Mind Institute, Federal Institute of Technology, Switzerland [link]
MRC National Institute for Medical Research [link]

Figures:

Sources:

The EU-PSI Project (Evidence-Based Treatment in Mental Health and Optimised Use of Databases ), University of Helsinki, Finland [link] and [link]
Jones, R. Nutt D. Morris K. "Cognition Enhancers." Foresight Brain Science, Addiction and Drugs. Research Review [link]
"Insufficient Memory: Can a pill boost your brain’s ability to hold information?" November 18 2003. Center for Cognitive Liberty and Ethics [link]
"The Gene and its Place ." (Interview with Prof. Steven Rose, Open University). EMBO (European Molecular Biology Organisation) Reports 5, 3, 226–229. 2004 [link]
"Pharmaceutical Market: Run on Lifestyle Drugs Boosted by Demographic Trend." Deutsche Bank Research, Germany. 2003 [link]
Whiting D. "Advances in the Treatment of Male Androgenetic Alopecia: A Brief Review of Finasteride Studies." Eur. J Dermatol. 2001.
Farah M. "Emerging Ethical Issues in Neuroscience." 2002. Nature Neuroscience 5: 1123-1129
Lexchin, Joel. 2001. "Lifestyle Drugs: Issues for Debate." CMAJ 164:1449-51.
Young, Simon. 2003. "Lifestyle Drugs, Mood, Behaviour, and Cognition" J Psychiatry, Neurosci 28(2):87-9
"Pop a Pill for the Perfect Tan." New Scientist 7 May 2005.
Croghan, Thomas and Patricia Pittman. "Lifestyle and Live-Saving Drugs." Pittsburg Post-Gazette. (a RAND Corporation Commentary)
"Lifestyle Vaccines." The Economist. 21 May 2005
"Connecting Brains and Society. The Present and Future of Brain Science: What is Possible, What is Desirable?" International Workshop, 22 and 23 April 2004, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Proceedings and Synthesis Report. King Baudouin Foundation, Belgium; Rathenau Institute the Netherlands [link]

At A Glance:
When:
3–10 years

Where:
Global

How Fast:
Years

Likelihood:
High

Impact:
Low

Controversy:
Medium

Related Outlooks:

About this outlook: An outlook is an internally consistent, plausible view of the future based on the best expertise available. It is not a prediction of the future. The AT-A-GLANCE ratings suggest the scope, scale, and uncertainty associated with this outlook. Each outlook is also a working document, with contributors adding comments and edits to improve the forecast over time. Please see the revision history for earlier versions

Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Biology and Biotechnology
Keywords:	Life course, lifestyles & health - medicine, health care, lifestyle medications
Outlook:	Drugs for non-clinical conditions promise to be used widely by select population segments as forms of self-medication to optimise performance.
Summary Analysis:	Interest in 'lifestyle drugs' has been rising since the use of diazepam to treat mental distress in the 1960s. Although these drugs have occasionally stirred an ethical debate, little attempt has been made by governments to restrict their availability. The market for such medications is growing fast: it now exceeds $23 billion, according to Research and Markets, and is forecast to reach $27 billion by 2007. Drugs in this category range from those for halting or reversing male pattern baldness to those for treating social phobia and enhancing mental performance. Societal and consumer acceptance, together with the economic incentives to enter the lifestyle medications market, could accelerate the development of new drugs - many drug companies have entered the lifestyle and smart medications markets, which Deutsche Bank estimates represent 5% of the overall drug market. Additionally, a number of companies are beginning to play an active role in defining new disorders that can be treated with new drugs or extensions of existing medications. Unless there is an unexpected backlash, this are could experience much faster growth than traditional drugs used to treat diseases. Methods for identifying and developing the latter have resulted in a slow and costly drug pipeline (especially for 'blockbusters'), whereas there is little competition for new lifestyle drugs in the wide-open expanse of 'social health'. Furthermore, significantly greater liability is associated with drug treatments that potentially save lives than with lifestyle drugs. Consequently, the profitability of lifestyle drugs will increase while the number of life-threatening diseases among large, affluent populations decreases. As costs of health care increase however, lifestyle medications are likely to become the province of the affluent who can pay for these treatments directly or can afford premium health insurance plans.

	Implications:	Increased social stratification as affluent patients see marked economic and social benefits from ever more capable drugs
	Early Indicators:	Introduction of fluoxetine to treat social anxiety disorder, finasteride for male pattern baldness, sildenafil for male erectile dysfunction, and orlistat for obesity Research now under way at drug companies such as Cortex Pharmaceuticals, Cytos Biotechnology, and EpiTan that promises to bring about new medications Rise in US prescriptions for Ritalin (methylphenidate) and similar drugs from 2.5 million in 1991 to 15 million in 1999 Deutsche Bank's forecast that lifestyle drug sales will rise 10% each year until 2010
	What to Watch:	Different regulations are developed to apply to lifestyle drugs in contrast to typical pharmaceuticals. Individuals decide to make health trade-offs in exchange for lifestyle improvements, as has been seen with fen-phen and dexfenfluramine (both of which address obesity). Higher profits from lifestyle drugs channel R&D investment into these larger opportunities, as a substitute for the failing business model based on 'blockbuster drugs'.
	Parallels/Precedents:
	Enablers/Drivers:	Demographic changes, most notably aging of the Baby Boomer generation Increasing acceptance of direct-to-consumer (DTC) marketing strategies Increase in disposable income for certain population segments
	Leaders:	Regions: US and the EU Institutions: Cortex Pharmaceuticals (research on CX717, an ampakine compound that offers improved performance on memory tests and increased alertness) Cytos Biotechnology (testing of a vaccine that binds nicotine to a protein mass, causing antibodies to attack the nicotine and prevent neural stimulation) [link] EpiTan (development of the protein melanotan as an injection to prevent skin cancer -- and which results in 'tanned' skin) Sanofi-Aventis (French company working on Acomplia (rimonabant), which fights both obesity and smoking) [link] Direct Response Marketing (UK lifestyle drug sales company) [link] Bristol Neuroscience, Bristol University, UK [link] Centre for the Mind, University of Sydney [link] European Brain Institute, Italy [link] Brain and Mind Institute, Federal Institute of Technology, Switzerland [link] MRC National Institute for Medical Research [link]
	Figures:
	Sources:	The EU-PSI Project (Evidence-Based Treatment in Mental Health and Optimised Use of Databases ), University of Helsinki, Finland [link] and [link] Jones, R. Nutt D. Morris K. "Cognition Enhancers." Foresight Brain Science, Addiction and Drugs. Research Review [link] "Insufficient Memory: Can a pill boost your brain’s ability to hold information?" November 18 2003. Center for Cognitive Liberty and Ethics [link] "The Gene and its Place ." (Interview with Prof. Steven Rose, Open University). EMBO (European Molecular Biology Organisation) Reports 5, 3, 226–229. 2004 [link] "Pharmaceutical Market: Run on Lifestyle Drugs Boosted by Demographic Trend." Deutsche Bank Research, Germany. 2003 [link] Whiting D. "Advances in the Treatment of Male Androgenetic Alopecia: A Brief Review of Finasteride Studies." Eur. J Dermatol. 2001. Farah M. "Emerging Ethical Issues in Neuroscience." 2002. Nature Neuroscience 5: 1123-1129 Lexchin, Joel. 2001. "Lifestyle Drugs: Issues for Debate." CMAJ 164:1449-51. Young, Simon. 2003. "Lifestyle Drugs, Mood, Behaviour, and Cognition" J Psychiatry, Neurosci 28(2):87-9 "Pop a Pill for the Perfect Tan." New Scientist 7 May 2005. Croghan, Thomas and Patricia Pittman. "Lifestyle and Live-Saving Drugs." Pittsburg Post-Gazette. (a RAND Corporation Commentary) "Lifestyle Vaccines." The Economist. 21 May 2005 "Connecting Brains and Society. The Present and Future of Brain Science: What is Possible, What is Desirable?" International Workshop, 22 and 23 April 2004, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Proceedings and Synthesis Report. King Baudouin Foundation, Belgium; Rathenau Institute the Netherlands [link]

At A Glance:	When:	3–10 years
	Where:	Global
	How Fast:	Years
	Likelihood:	High
	Impact:	Low
	Controversy:	Medium