Delta Scan: The Future of Science and Technology, 2005-2055: Growth of Spatial Analysis in the Social Sciences

Key Pages

Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Social Sciences
Keywords:	Environment and human behaviour - geocoded, spatial, GIS, GPS, anthropology, archaeology, ecology, time and space
Outlook:	Social scientists are increasingly likely to incorporate a geographical perspective in their work as geocoded data becomes more available and methods of spatial analysis become more sophisticated.
Summary Analysis:	Theoretical developments in the social sciences regarding the interactions between individuals and groups in specific locations, have led to a recent explosion in the amount of attention paid to GIS (geographic information systems) and spatial analysis. Spatial analysis includes special techniques that can be used to analyse aggregate data that are geographically distributed (geocoded data), providing a level of analysis that current techniques cannot produce. For example, sociologists have employed network analysis to uncover a complex and shifting structure within national politics. Concepts such as social norms, neighborhood effects, peer group effects, and social capital, all of which have a central role for location, space and spacial interactions, are used to understand how individual interactions can lead to collective behaviour and trends. Ecological anthropologists study how human activity within ecosystems varies at least in part as a consequence of spatial and temporal variation in energy availability and how it flows through the system. Archaeologists have also embraced spatial analysis and developed an explicit understanding that spatial data and spatial analytic methods are fundamental to archaeological research. Recent attention to precision farming has forced agricultural economists to incorporate the notion of spatial costs in production theory. In sum, spatial analysis is becoming an important part of the methodological toolbox of the social scientist.

Implications:

Implicit information becoming increasingly explicit and visible
Development of new subfields within the social sciences on spatial analysis as geodata becomes embedded
Increase in cross-disciplinary research combining work from sociology, anthropology, design, geography, and archaeology

Early Indicators:

Merging of anthropology and geography departments in US universities due to common interests in time and space
Incorporation of geospatial analysis in current social science research
Use of GIS by anthropologists analysing land degradation in the Peruvian Amazon
Use of GIS by social science researchers studying spatial organisation in ethnic economies of the Los Angeles garment industry

What to Watch:

Large geocoded data sets become easily available.

Parallels/Precedents:

Advent of new methods of statistical analysis with availability of large datasets and increased computing power

Enablers/drivers:

Proliferation of desktop spatial analysis software
Development of new techniques for sensing location through location enabled networks and devices enabled through GPS
Availability of geocoded socioeconomic data sets

Leaders:
Institutions:

University of Arizona
University of New Mexico
University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign
University of Sussex
University of Newcastle
Pennsylvania State University
University of Chicago
University of Sheffield
University of Oxford
University College London
ESRC National Centre for E-Social Science [link]
University of Southampton, GeoData Institute [link]
University of Plymouth, Geomatics Group [link]
Association for Geographic Information [link]

Figures:

Sources:

Abbott, Andrew. 1997. "Of Time and Space: The Contemporary Relevance of the Chicago School." Social Forces. June, 75(4):1149-82
Anselin, Luc. 1999. "The Future of Spatial Analysis in the Social Sciences, Geographic Information." Sciences. 5(2), 1999, 67-76
Aldenderfer, Mark and Herbert DG Maschner. 1996. Anthropology, Space, and Geographic Information Systems. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
"Spatial social science: for research, teaching, application and policy". Center for Spatially Integrated Social Science, University of California - Santa Barbara. [link]
Michael F Goodchild, Social Science Interest in GIS Grows, [link]
Bob Haining, Methodologies for the Analysis of Spatial Data [link]
Nigel Fielding, Qualitative Research and E-Social Science [link]
Ben Anderson et al, A Grid-Based triangulation and collaboraton infrastructure for e-Social Science Research [link]
Galileo [link]
GPS UK user site [link]

At A Glance:
When:
3–10 years

Where:
Global

How Fast:
Years

Likelihood:
High

Impact:
Unknown

Controversy:
Medium

Related Outlooks:

About this outlook: An outlook is an internally consistent, plausible view of the future based on the best expertise available. It is not a prediction of the future. The AT-A-GLANCE ratings suggest the scope, scale, and uncertainty associated with this outlook. Each outlook is also a working document, with contributors adding comments and edits to improve the forecast over time. Please see the revision history for earlier versions.

	Implications:	Implicit information becoming increasingly explicit and visible Development of new subfields within the social sciences on spatial analysis as geodata becomes embedded Increase in cross-disciplinary research combining work from sociology, anthropology, design, geography, and archaeology
	Early Indicators:	Merging of anthropology and geography departments in US universities due to common interests in time and space Incorporation of geospatial analysis in current social science research Use of GIS by anthropologists analysing land degradation in the Peruvian Amazon Use of GIS by social science researchers studying spatial organisation in ethnic economies of the Los Angeles garment industry
	What to Watch:	Large geocoded data sets become easily available.
	Parallels/Precedents:	Advent of new methods of statistical analysis with availability of large datasets and increased computing power
	Enablers/drivers:	Proliferation of desktop spatial analysis software Development of new techniques for sensing location through location enabled networks and devices enabled through GPS Availability of geocoded socioeconomic data sets
	Leaders:	Institutions: University of Arizona University of New Mexico University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign University of Sussex University of Newcastle Pennsylvania State University University of Chicago University of Sheffield University of Oxford University College London ESRC National Centre for E-Social Science [link] University of Southampton, GeoData Institute [link] University of Plymouth, Geomatics Group [link] Association for Geographic Information [link]
	Figures:
	Sources:	Abbott, Andrew. 1997. "Of Time and Space: The Contemporary Relevance of the Chicago School." Social Forces. June, 75(4):1149-82 Anselin, Luc. 1999. "The Future of Spatial Analysis in the Social Sciences, Geographic Information." Sciences. 5(2), 1999, 67-76 Aldenderfer, Mark and Herbert DG Maschner. 1996. Anthropology, Space, and Geographic Information Systems. Oxford: Oxford University Press. "Spatial social science: for research, teaching, application and policy". Center for Spatially Integrated Social Science, University of California - Santa Barbara. [link] Michael F Goodchild, Social Science Interest in GIS Grows, [link] Bob Haining, Methodologies for the Analysis of Spatial Data [link] Nigel Fielding, Qualitative Research and E-Social Science [link] Ben Anderson et al, A Grid-Based triangulation and collaboraton infrastructure for e-Social Science Research [link] Galileo [link] GPS UK user site [link]

At A Glance:	When:	3–10 years
	Where:	Global
	How Fast:	Years
	Likelihood:	High
	Impact:	Unknown
	Controversy:	Medium