Delta Scan: The Future of Science and Technology, 2005-2055: The Advent of Molecular Archaeology

Key Pages

Category:
Science and Technology

Domain:
Social Sciences

Keywords:
Biotechnology & genetics - DNA, molecular, mtDNA

Outlook:
The advent of archaeology at the molecular level thanks to advances in genetics, chemistry, and physics is expected to lead to a new level of precision in archeological research and enable better understanding of past events and cultures.

Summary Analysis:
Advances in genetics, chemistry, and physics are enabling archaeologists to solve many archaeological and historical mysteries by examining evidence at the molecular level. DNA analysis can be used to reconstruct the subsistence and cultural activities of ancient peoples with an accuracy that is not possible with traditional archaeological methods. Borrowing from chemistry, archaeologists can reconstruct diet and local environment from a suite of stable isotopes. And drawing on physics, they can use particle accelerators to determine the age of specks of organic material with great precision.

Already DNA analysis is being used for such tasks as tracking population lineages, determining the species of ancient plant and animal materials, tracing bloodlines, and determining the sex of ancient human remains. Here are a few cases in point:

At the site of Askalon, an ancient city in the south of Israel, archaeologists discovered bodies of 100 infants behind a bathhouse. It was believed that they were the remains of unwanted girls, because female infanticide was common during those days. Gender determination by DNA analysis revealed skeletal remains of as many boys as girls. Armed with the DNA evidence, scientists concluded that the bathhouse was a brothel as well, and infant victims were unwanted babies of women working in the brothel.
The mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) of Tyrolean Ice-Man has revealed a homology to today's population of the northern Alps.
Isolation of the DNA of tuberculosis pathogens in Peruvian mummies that date back 600 to 900 years has proven that Columbus and his successors did not bring the disease to the Americas.
DNA fingerprinting has helped scientists identify the remains of Josef Mengele in Brazil and the Romanov family in Jekatrinenburg.
DNA has been used to gather genetic information about a 4000-year-old Egyptian mummy.

Most physical anthropologists believe that studies of the haplotype distribution of mitochondrial DNA and Y chromosomes will become extensive and finely detailed. This would enable researchers to plot the movements of ancient groups with greater precision as well as bring a new level of precision to archaeological research overall.

Implications:

More precision in conclusions reached by anthropologists based on scientific evidence
Integration of genetics, physics, chemistry, and physical anthropology as scientists from all these disciplines work together to unravel ancient mysteries

Early Indicators:

Current use of DNA evidence to solve many archaeological and historical mysteries

What to Watch:

Genetic mapping becomes cheaply available.

Parallels/Precedents:

Use of brain imaging to make psychological diagnoses

Enablers/drivers:

Recent developments in genetics, physics, and chemistry
Development of the PCR (polymerase chain reaction) technique in the 1980s, which has made it possible to detect and characterise traces of DNA from as little as a single molecule

Leaders:
Institutions:

University of Pennsylvania
Stanford University
American University in Cairo
Oxford University, Ancient Biomolecules Centre [link]
Cambridge University
University of Copenhagen, Centre for Ancient DNA and Evolution [link]
UCL Institute of Archaeology, Material Culture and Data Science Research Group [link]
University of Bradford, Department of Archaeological Sciences [link]

Figures:

Sources:

Kiesslich, Jan. "The Emerging Field of Molecular Archaeology." Jnas Ancient DNA Homepage. [link]
"Think Tank: Archaeology." Discover, March 2005.
Interview with Jan English Lueck, Professor, Department of Anthropology, San Jose State University
Interview with Don Brennis, Professor, Department of Anthropology, University of California, Santa Cruz
Paul Pettitt: Odd Man Out: Neanderthals and Modern Humans [link]
Oxford: Pigs Force Rethink on Human History [link]
DNA project to trace human steps [link]
Colin Renfrew and Katie Boyle, Archaeogenetics: DNA and the population prehistory of Europe, 2000, [link]
UK Natural Environment Research Council, Science-Based Archaeology Strategy [link]
Archaeological Science Resources [link]
Ancient DNA Links [link]

At A Glance:
When:
11-20 years

Where:
Global - US, Europe, Africa (Egypt)

How Fast:
insert text

Likelihood:
High

Impact:
Low

Controversy:
Low

Related Outlooks:

About this outlook: An outlook is an internally consistent, plausible view of the future based on the best expertise available. It is not a prediction of the future. The AT-A-GLANCE ratings suggest the scope, scale, and uncertainty associated with this outlook. Each outlook is also a working document, with contributors adding comments and edits to improve the forecast over time. Please see the revision history for earlier versions.

Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Social Sciences
Keywords:	Biotechnology & genetics - DNA, molecular, mtDNA
Outlook:	The advent of archaeology at the molecular level thanks to advances in genetics, chemistry, and physics is expected to lead to a new level of precision in archeological research and enable better understanding of past events and cultures.
Summary Analysis:	Advances in genetics, chemistry, and physics are enabling archaeologists to solve many archaeological and historical mysteries by examining evidence at the molecular level. DNA analysis can be used to reconstruct the subsistence and cultural activities of ancient peoples with an accuracy that is not possible with traditional archaeological methods. Borrowing from chemistry, archaeologists can reconstruct diet and local environment from a suite of stable isotopes. And drawing on physics, they can use particle accelerators to determine the age of specks of organic material with great precision. Already DNA analysis is being used for such tasks as tracking population lineages, determining the species of ancient plant and animal materials, tracing bloodlines, and determining the sex of ancient human remains. Here are a few cases in point: At the site of Askalon, an ancient city in the south of Israel, archaeologists discovered bodies of 100 infants behind a bathhouse. It was believed that they were the remains of unwanted girls, because female infanticide was common during those days. Gender determination by DNA analysis revealed skeletal remains of as many boys as girls. Armed with the DNA evidence, scientists concluded that the bathhouse was a brothel as well, and infant victims were unwanted babies of women working in the brothel. The mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) of Tyrolean Ice-Man has revealed a homology to today's population of the northern Alps. Isolation of the DNA of tuberculosis pathogens in Peruvian mummies that date back 600 to 900 years has proven that Columbus and his successors did not bring the disease to the Americas. DNA fingerprinting has helped scientists identify the remains of Josef Mengele in Brazil and the Romanov family in Jekatrinenburg. DNA has been used to gather genetic information about a 4000-year-old Egyptian mummy. Most physical anthropologists believe that studies of the haplotype distribution of mitochondrial DNA and Y chromosomes will become extensive and finely detailed. This would enable researchers to plot the movements of ancient groups with greater precision as well as bring a new level of precision to archaeological research overall.

	Implications:	More precision in conclusions reached by anthropologists based on scientific evidence Integration of genetics, physics, chemistry, and physical anthropology as scientists from all these disciplines work together to unravel ancient mysteries
	Early Indicators:	Current use of DNA evidence to solve many archaeological and historical mysteries
	What to Watch:	Genetic mapping becomes cheaply available.
	Parallels/Precedents:	Use of brain imaging to make psychological diagnoses
	Enablers/drivers:	Recent developments in genetics, physics, and chemistry Development of the PCR (polymerase chain reaction) technique in the 1980s, which has made it possible to detect and characterise traces of DNA from as little as a single molecule
	Leaders:	Institutions: University of Pennsylvania Stanford University American University in Cairo Oxford University, Ancient Biomolecules Centre [link] Cambridge University University of Copenhagen, Centre for Ancient DNA and Evolution [link] UCL Institute of Archaeology, Material Culture and Data Science Research Group [link] University of Bradford, Department of Archaeological Sciences [link]
	Figures:
	Sources:	Kiesslich, Jan. "The Emerging Field of Molecular Archaeology." Jnas Ancient DNA Homepage. [link] "Think Tank: Archaeology." Discover, March 2005. Interview with Jan English Lueck, Professor, Department of Anthropology, San Jose State University Interview with Don Brennis, Professor, Department of Anthropology, University of California, Santa Cruz Paul Pettitt: Odd Man Out: Neanderthals and Modern Humans [link] Oxford: Pigs Force Rethink on Human History [link] DNA project to trace human steps [link] Colin Renfrew and Katie Boyle, Archaeogenetics: DNA and the population prehistory of Europe, 2000, [link] UK Natural Environment Research Council, Science-Based Archaeology Strategy [link] Archaeological Science Resources [link] Ancient DNA Links [link]

At A Glance:	When:	11-20 years
	Where:	Global - US, Europe, Africa (Egypt)
	How Fast:	insert text
	Likelihood:	High
	Impact:	Low
	Controversy:	Low