Delta Scan: The Future of Science and Technology, 2005-2055: Catalogue of Living Species Complete

Key Pages

Category:
Science and Technology

Domain:
Ecology and Earth Sciences

Keywords:
Earth Monitoring - environment, sensors, data storage and retrieval, swarm computing

Outlook:
The ongoing process of identifying all living species and determining their interdependencies, range, life cycle, and population size will one day be completed, possibly in the next 50 years.

Summary Analysis:
To date, somewhere between 1.4 and 1.8 million species have been scientifically recorded. Estimates of the total number of species range from 5 million to over 100 million. According to Peter Bryant of the University of California at Irvine, about 10,000 new species are found every year, and most of these are insects and other inconspicuous animals. Completion of the catalogue of living species will be aided by a global, fine-resolution sensor network. Developments in nanotechnology may facilitate the creation of such a network, and further evolution of large-scale relational database software will mean that the challenges of searching, cross-referencing, and managing the enormous database can be met.

Implications:

More effective management of living resources
Better understanding of interactive processes, especially nonlinear ones, that can lead to restoration or mitigation of damage

Early Indicators:

Widespread use of surveillance cameras

What to Watch:

Full coverage of all remote areas, including extreme environments, by sensors
Allowance of enough time after a sensor system is in place to generate confidence in its coverage
Institutions and research projects aimed at generating a complete catalog of living species, such as the All-Species Foundation (California Academy of Sciences) and Library of Life (proposed for location on the Israeli-Jordanian Border)

Parallels/Precedents:

Various NASA programs over the past 40 years, such as LANDSAT, GOES, and Mission to Planet Earth

Enablers/Drivers:

Further development of nanotechnology sensors and large-scale relational database software

Leaders:
Institutions:

Center for Embedded Network Sensing, UCLA (pursuing fundamental science and engineering research needed to create scalable, robust, and adaptive sensor/actuator networks, including both embedded networked sensing, or ENS, technology research and ENS applications research) [link]
International Long Term Ecological Research (ILTER) Network (bringing together research networks of scientists who are collectively engaged in and dedicated to multi- and interdisciplinary long-term and large-scale research and monitoring in ecological science, including human dimensions) [link]
All Species Foundation (an institution "dedicated to the complete inventory of all species of life on Earth within the next 25 years - a human generation") [link]
Species 2000, organisation aiming to track all known species [link]
Species 2000 Europa (University of Edinburgh) [link]
Smithsonian Institution [link]
National Science Foundation [link]
The Systematics Association [link]

Figures:

Sources:

Deborah Estrin, Greg Pottie, Center for Embedded Network Sensing, UCLA
NASA, "Remote Sensing Data and Information." [link]
Peter J. Bryant, Biodiversity and Conservation: A Hypertext Book (Irvine: U.C. Irvine, 2004), esp. chap 10, "Cataloging and Mapping Biodiversity [link]
P Balaram, Systematic Biology in the Information Age, Current Science, 79, 11, 1511-1512, 10 December 2003 [link]
John L Schnase (Nasa), Research Directions in Biodiversity Informatics, 26th International Conference on Very Large Databases, Cairo, 2000 [link]
Edoardo Biagioni and Kim Bridges, The Application of Remote Sensor Technology to Assist The Recovery of Rare And Endangered Species, International Journal of High Performance Computing Applications, Vol. 16, No. 3, 315-324 (2002)
Estrin, D. et al, Instrumenting the world with wireless sensor networks, Acoustics, Speech, and Signal Processing, Volume 4, 2033-2036, 2001
Wikispecies, Wikipedia spinoff intended to catalogue all species [link]
iSpecies, search engine for every species based on idea by E O Wilson (at University of Glasgow) [link]

At A Glance:
When:
21–50 years +

Where:
Global

How Fast:
Years

Likelihood:
Medium-High

Impact:
Low

Controversy:
Medium

Related Outlooks:

About this outlook: An outlook is an internally consistent, plausible view of the future based on the best expertise available. It is not a prediction of the future. The AT-A-GLANCE ratings suggest the scope, scale, and uncertainty associated with this outlook. Each outlook is also a working document, with contributors adding comments and edits to improve the forecast over time. Please see the revision history for earlier versions.

Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Ecology and Earth Sciences
Keywords:	Earth Monitoring - environment, sensors, data storage and retrieval, swarm computing
Outlook:	The ongoing process of identifying all living species and determining their interdependencies, range, life cycle, and population size will one day be completed, possibly in the next 50 years.
Summary Analysis:	To date, somewhere between 1.4 and 1.8 million species have been scientifically recorded. Estimates of the total number of species range from 5 million to over 100 million. According to Peter Bryant of the University of California at Irvine, about 10,000 new species are found every year, and most of these are insects and other inconspicuous animals. Completion of the catalogue of living species will be aided by a global, fine-resolution sensor network. Developments in nanotechnology may facilitate the creation of such a network, and further evolution of large-scale relational database software will mean that the challenges of searching, cross-referencing, and managing the enormous database can be met.

	Implications:	More effective management of living resources Better understanding of interactive processes, especially nonlinear ones, that can lead to restoration or mitigation of damage
	Early Indicators:	Widespread use of surveillance cameras
	What to Watch:	Full coverage of all remote areas, including extreme environments, by sensors Allowance of enough time after a sensor system is in place to generate confidence in its coverage Institutions and research projects aimed at generating a complete catalog of living species, such as the All-Species Foundation (California Academy of Sciences) and Library of Life (proposed for location on the Israeli-Jordanian Border)
	Parallels/Precedents:	Various NASA programs over the past 40 years, such as LANDSAT, GOES, and Mission to Planet Earth
	Enablers/Drivers:	Further development of nanotechnology sensors and large-scale relational database software
	Leaders:	Institutions: Center for Embedded Network Sensing, UCLA (pursuing fundamental science and engineering research needed to create scalable, robust, and adaptive sensor/actuator networks, including both embedded networked sensing, or ENS, technology research and ENS applications research) [link] International Long Term Ecological Research (ILTER) Network (bringing together research networks of scientists who are collectively engaged in and dedicated to multi- and interdisciplinary long-term and large-scale research and monitoring in ecological science, including human dimensions) [link] All Species Foundation (an institution "dedicated to the complete inventory of all species of life on Earth within the next 25 years - a human generation") [link] Species 2000, organisation aiming to track all known species [link] Species 2000 Europa (University of Edinburgh) [link] Smithsonian Institution [link] National Science Foundation [link] The Systematics Association [link]
	Figures:
	Sources:	Deborah Estrin, Greg Pottie, Center for Embedded Network Sensing, UCLA NASA, "Remote Sensing Data and Information." [link] Peter J. Bryant, Biodiversity and Conservation: A Hypertext Book (Irvine: U.C. Irvine, 2004), esp. chap 10, "Cataloging and Mapping Biodiversity [link] P Balaram, Systematic Biology in the Information Age, Current Science, 79, 11, 1511-1512, 10 December 2003 [link] John L Schnase (Nasa), Research Directions in Biodiversity Informatics, 26th International Conference on Very Large Databases, Cairo, 2000 [link] Edoardo Biagioni and Kim Bridges, The Application of Remote Sensor Technology to Assist The Recovery of Rare And Endangered Species, International Journal of High Performance Computing Applications, Vol. 16, No. 3, 315-324 (2002) Estrin, D. et al, Instrumenting the world with wireless sensor networks, Acoustics, Speech, and Signal Processing, Volume 4, 2033-2036, 2001 Wikispecies, Wikipedia spinoff intended to catalogue all species [link] iSpecies, search engine for every species based on idea by E O Wilson (at University of Glasgow) [link]

At A Glance:	When:	21–50 years +
	Where:	Global
	How Fast:	Years
	Likelihood:	Medium-High
	Impact:	Low
	Controversy:	Medium