Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Ecology and Earth Sciences, Complexity
Keywords:	Ecology - computation, ecosystems, modeling
Outlook:	Greater access to computing resources may allow complex ecosystem modelling to reach a level of detail that could inform a significant improvement in our stewardship of the planet and its resources.
Summary Analysis:	A comprehensive model would include all important interactions among variables at all scales. For the global ecosystem this includes not only the atmosphere, ocean currents and land masses (including their regional ecosystems: desert, forest, agricultural lands, and so forth) but also solar input, cosmic rays, seismic processes, and any other large system that impinges on the functioning of the general global ecosystem and the ever-changing and interactive adaptation of living ecosystems as well. One of the greatest challenges is modelling complex systems. Complex systems are described by nonlinear relationships between their elements. This broadly speaking means that the system as a whole is more complicated than the mere sum of its basic constituent components. Through the nonlinear interactions new patterns emerge which have not been present in the set of the basic components. In this way a nonlinear system may evolve and show a nontrivial complex behaviour. Certain nonlinear dynamical systems (under certain conditions) exhibit the phenomenon known as chaos, most famously characterized by sensitivity to initial condition and non-periodic evolution in a bounded region of their phase space. In general, the equations describing nonlinear systems cannot be solved analytically. As a result, they can often be studied only through numerical simulation. However, because of nonlinear systems’ sensitivity to initial conditions and their chaotic behaviour, available computing resources are often inadequate for their numerical computation. With advances in computational power, inexpensive memory, and refined mathematical algorithms, real ecosystem models will include these complex systems. The model will reflect interactions among and between all scales and rates of change, inertia, and timing.

	Implications:	More conscious stewardship of the planet and its resources
	Early Indicators:	Current work by the European Terrestrial Ecosystem Modelling Activity (ETEMA) project on developing a comprehensive framework for modeling the dynamics of natural and seminatural ecosystems, to be used eventually as a forecasting and planning tool
	What to Watch:	Inceasingly accurate weather prediction Increasing time horizon for weather prediction Increasing resolution of regional weather prediction
	Parallels/Precedents:	Development of the Medium-Resolution Continental Shelf (MRCS) model, one of the most complex lower trophic-level marine ecosystem models currently in use, by the Met Office
	Enablers/Drivers:	Development of increasingly powerful computers Creation of a global sensor network at fine resolution Increasing impact of changes in global climate
	Leaders:	Met Office (development of the Medium-Resolution Continental Shelf, or MRCS, model) [link] Complex Systems Laboratory, University of Montréal (development of the WIST -- Weather-driven, Individual-based, Spatially explicit, Terrestrial -- ecosystem model) [link] Department of Ecology, Lund University, Sweden (overseeing the European Terrestrial Ecosystem Modelling Activity project) [link] Earth Simulator Center [link] TOP500 Supercomputer Sites [link] Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry [link] SAGE, University of Wisconsin, Madison [link] MIT [link] QUEST, Quantifying and Understanding the Earth System (UK Natural Environment Research Council, University of Bristol) [link] University of Southampton, James Rennell Division [link] European Space Agency, Living Planet Programme [link]
	Figures:
	Sources:	Reynolds, Craig. 1997. "Individual-Based Models." [link] Parrott, L. and R. Kok. 2000. "Use of an object-based model to represent complex features of ecosystems." [link] The Earth Simulator Center Leaflet. 2004. [link] A R Price et al, Genie: Exploiting Grid Enabled Computing and Data Handling resources for integrated Earth system modelling, Geophysical Research Abstracts 7, 2005 [link] M Claussen et al, Earth system models of intermediate complexity: closing the gap in the spectrum of climate system models, Climate Dynamics, 18, 7, 579 - 586, 2002 Elisabeth A Holland et al, Integrating biogeochemistry and atmospheric chemistry into Earth system models: Where are the non-linearities? American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2004, abstract #NG31C-06, 2004 [link] Richard A Anthes, Global Weather Services in 2025: A Five-Year Update, ICHW Conference 2004 [link] G Brasseur et al, European Network for Earth System Modelling, EGS - AGU - EUG Joint Assembly, Nice, April 2003, abstract 6708, 2003 [link] IIS State of Science on Complexity & Emergent Behaviour [link]

	At A Glance:	When:	21–50 years +
		Where:	Global
		How Fast:	Years
		Likelihood:	Medium-Low
		Impact:	Medium-Low
		Controversy:	Medium

Related Outlooks: