Delta Scan: The Future of Science and Technology, 2005-2055: Quantum Chemistry for Pollution Abatement

Key Pages

Category:
Science and Technology

Domain:
Ecology and Earth Sciences, Chemistry

Keywords:
Pollution Prevention - quantum chemistry, quantum physics, ecology, pollution, eutrophication, hypoxia

Outlook:
Nanomanipulation at the quantum level of chemical reactions could ameliorate chemical pollution.

Summary Analysis:
Nitrogen and phosphorus from agricultural runoff, among other sources, have created large zones of eutrophication and hypoxia, essentially dead zones, in the oceans. Smokestack emissions from industry have likewise damaged the atmosphere. New technologies could emerge from quantum manipulation of chemical reactions to ameliorate these conditions. The more precise our understanding of basic chemical reactions, the more we will be able to control unintended consequences and ameliorate pollutant impacts on the environment.

Implications:

Restoration of water and air to health and purity

Early Indicators:

Current research by Paul Blowers at the University of Arizona using the supercomputer at the US National Center for Supercomputing Applications (NCSA) to model quantum chemical reactions in powerplant smokestacks in the interests of ameliorating chemical pollution
1998 Nobel Prize for Chemistry to John Pople and Walter Kohn for breakthroughs in this area [link]

What to Watch:

Advances in supercomputing further our understanding of basic chemical reactions.
Commercial 'green' products begin emerging from quantum chemistry.

Parallels/Precedents:

Application of previous generations of technology to clean up smokestack emissions
Invention of catalytic converters to treat pollutants before their release into the atmosphere

Enablers/Drivers:

Progress in fundamental understanding of quantum chemistry

Leaders:
Institutions:

University of Arizona (Paul Blowers's work on chemical reactions in powerplant smokestacks)
National Natural Science Foundation of China, Dept. of Chemical Sciences (research on chemistry, pollution, and climate change)
Oak Ridge National Laboratory [link]
Technical University, Denmark [link]
Stockholm University, Chemical Physics [link]
Catholic University, Leuven, Belgium [link]
University of Cambridge [link]
Imperial College, London [link]
Massively Parallel Quantum Chemistry programme [link]

Figures:

Sources:

Diaz, Robert. 1998. “Hypoxia: A Global Perspective.” Speech for the Agricultural Outlook Forum. U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Quantum Chemistry, NIH, no date given [link]
Wibke Sudholt et al, Application of Grid Computing to Parameter Sweeps and optimisations in molecular modelling, Future Generation Computer Systems, 21, 27-35, 2005 [link]
W K Liu et al, An Introduction to Computational Nanomechanics and Materials, Comput Methods Appl. Mech Eng, 193, 1529-1578, 2004 [link]
F. Ruette et al, CATIVIC: Parametric quantum chemistry package for catalytic reactions: International Journal of Quantum Chemistry, 96, 4, 321-332, 2004 [link]

At A Glance:
When:
21–50 years +

Where:
Global

How Fast:
Years

Likelihood:
Low

Impact:
Medium-Low

Controversy:
Low

Related Outlooks:

About this outlook: An outlook is an internally consistent, plausible view of the future based on the best expertise available. It is not a prediction of the future. The AT-A-GLANCE ratings suggest the scope, scale, and uncertainty associated with this outlook. Each outlook is also a working document, with contributors adding comments and edits to improve the forecast over time. Please see the revision history for earlier versions.

Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Ecology and Earth Sciences, Chemistry
Keywords:	Pollution Prevention - quantum chemistry, quantum physics, ecology, pollution, eutrophication, hypoxia
Outlook:	Nanomanipulation at the quantum level of chemical reactions could ameliorate chemical pollution.
Summary Analysis:	Nitrogen and phosphorus from agricultural runoff, among other sources, have created large zones of eutrophication and hypoxia, essentially dead zones, in the oceans. Smokestack emissions from industry have likewise damaged the atmosphere. New technologies could emerge from quantum manipulation of chemical reactions to ameliorate these conditions. The more precise our understanding of basic chemical reactions, the more we will be able to control unintended consequences and ameliorate pollutant impacts on the environment.

	Implications:	Restoration of water and air to health and purity
	Early Indicators:	Current research by Paul Blowers at the University of Arizona using the supercomputer at the US National Center for Supercomputing Applications (NCSA) to model quantum chemical reactions in powerplant smokestacks in the interests of ameliorating chemical pollution 1998 Nobel Prize for Chemistry to John Pople and Walter Kohn for breakthroughs in this area [link]
	What to Watch:	Advances in supercomputing further our understanding of basic chemical reactions. Commercial 'green' products begin emerging from quantum chemistry.
	Parallels/Precedents:	Application of previous generations of technology to clean up smokestack emissions Invention of catalytic converters to treat pollutants before their release into the atmosphere
	Enablers/Drivers:	Progress in fundamental understanding of quantum chemistry
	Leaders:	Institutions: University of Arizona (Paul Blowers's work on chemical reactions in powerplant smokestacks) National Natural Science Foundation of China, Dept. of Chemical Sciences (research on chemistry, pollution, and climate change) Oak Ridge National Laboratory [link] Technical University, Denmark [link] Stockholm University, Chemical Physics [link] Catholic University, Leuven, Belgium [link] University of Cambridge [link] Imperial College, London [link] Massively Parallel Quantum Chemistry programme [link]
	Figures:
	Sources:	Diaz, Robert. 1998. “Hypoxia: A Global Perspective.” Speech for the Agricultural Outlook Forum. U.S. Department of Agriculture. Quantum Chemistry, NIH, no date given [link] Wibke Sudholt et al, Application of Grid Computing to Parameter Sweeps and optimisations in molecular modelling, Future Generation Computer Systems, 21, 27-35, 2005 [link] W K Liu et al, An Introduction to Computational Nanomechanics and Materials, Comput Methods Appl. Mech Eng, 193, 1529-1578, 2004 [link] F. Ruette et al, CATIVIC: Parametric quantum chemistry package for catalytic reactions: International Journal of Quantum Chemistry, 96, 4, 321-332, 2004 [link]

At A Glance:	When:	21–50 years +
	Where:	Global
	How Fast:	Years
	Likelihood:	Low
	Impact:	Medium-Low
	Controversy:	Low