Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Ecology and Earth Sciences
Keywords:	Earth Monitoring - simulation, nonlinear modeling, active dispersed sensor networks, distributed computing, probability risk assessment
Outlook:	Advances in several different technologies could improve the accuracy of forecasting of local and regional weather.
Summary Analysis:	The intersection of several different technologies, all developing at different rates, may increase the accuracy of weather forecasts. Developments in the access to computing power, dispersed sensor and data collection networks, and nonlinear mathematical models, and improved cooperation between national networks are likely to have a significant impact on forecasting. Increased confidence in forecasting may have a positive feedback effect on investment in forecasting.

	Implications:	Alleviation of the effects of unstable weather on living patterns, migration, and agriculture
	Early Indicators:	Icelandic weather forecasters' use in 2005 of a Linux network cluster for 3D simulations
	What to Watch:	Achievement of the goal of forecasting weather one year in advance with an accuracy average of 80% for areas as small as one square kilometer will signal a threshold for demonstrating the effectiveness of multidisciplinary, cross-cultural, global efforts.
	Parallels/Precedents:	Application of theoretical physics to financial market modeling (despite LTCM fiasco)
	Enablers/Drivers:	Relatively limited success of current low-resolution, imprecise models Advances in nonlinear mathematical modeling and simulation modeling Massive improvements in computing power and grid computing advances Increased climatic instability and extreme weather Severe crop failures due to climate change Increases in global science and technology investment due to governmental reactions to extreme weather
	Leaders:	Institutions: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (developing tools to make more accurate medium-range forecasts) [link] US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (conducting research and gathering data about the global oceans, atmosphere, space, and sun) [link] UK Met Office (providing environmental and weather-related services) [link] University of Reading, Joint Centre for Mesoscale Modelling [link] US Department of Commerce, Earth Systems Research Laboratory, Global Systems Division [link] Nasa (Tamdar weather data gathering) [link]
	Figures:
	Sources:	"Bleak first results from the world’s largest climate change experiment." Natural Environment Research Council, Oxford University. [link]. Science@NASA - Weather Roadmap [link] Schneider, Stephen. "Remarks at IFTF Workshop," IFTF. Palo Alto, CA. 27 July 2005. R L Harberts et al, Concepts for Models and Virtualization in Future Nasa Science Enterprise Systems, Modelling and Simulation, 2003 [link] World Meterological Organisation, Long-Term Plan 2004-2011 [link] Frank Morring jr, Spaceborne Sensors Add Valuable Weather Forecast Data, Aviation Week and Space Technology, December 12 2005 [link] Mark Steiner et al, Future Architectures for Operational Forecasting: Two-way Interacting SensorWeb and Model/Assimilation System, 3rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications to the Environmental Science and 12th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 2003 [link] Richard A Kerr, Storm-in-a-box forecasting, Science, 304, 946-948, 2004 [link] Seth Guttmann et al, Rapid Retrieval and Assimilation of Ground Based GPS-Met Observations at the NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory: Impact on Weather Forecasts [link] Imran Maqsood et al, An ensemble of neural networks for weather forecasting, Neural Computing & Applications, 13, 2, 112 - 122, 2004 [link]

	At A Glance:	When:	11–20 years
		Where:	Global
		How Fast:	Years
		Likelihood:	Medium-High
		Impact:	Medium-Low
		Controversy:	Medium

Related Outlooks: