Delta Scan: The Future of Science and Technology, 2005-2055: Understanding Dark Matter and Dark Energy

Key Pages

Category:
Science and Technology

Domain:
Physics

Keywords:
Theoretical physics - dark matter, dark energy, astrophysics, cosmology

Outlook:
Progress is likely to be made in understanding the dominance of dark matter and dark energy in our universe.

Summary Analysis:
Most of the mass of our universe is dark matter, the composition and origin of which is not currently known. The objects known to us (humans, oceans, planets, stars, galaxies, superclusters) comprise less than 4% of the total mass of the universe. While ordinary matter determines gravity in our immediate neighbourhood, dark matter controls the dynamic behaviour of large objects, such as galaxies and superclusters of galaxies. Related to this strange situation is a second mystery: the presence of an invisible dark energy separate from dark matter, the gravitational force of which is repulsive, causing our universe to expand at an accelerating rate. The presence of these three key components of our universe (ordinary matter, dark matter, and dark energy) is not explicable by any current insight or theory. Physicists speculate that dark matter and dark energy are somehow related to gravity itself. New work will continue to be done in this area, and new observations are likely to advance human understanding of this conundrum.

Implications:

Improved ability to predict cosmic events
Possible discovery of new states of matter
Possible modification of general relativity

Early Indicators:

Observations of the structure and dynamics of galaxies that have been found to be at odds with the distributions of galactic mass inferred from optical observations

What to Watch:

Theoretical breakthroughs lead to more accurate inference from optical observations.

Parallels/Precedents:

Enablers/Drivers:

Continuation and expansion of work by optical and infrared observatories and high-energy particle detectors
Continuing observation of radio emissions and cosmic background noise
Advances in relativistic general relativity theory

Leaders:
Institutions

Max Planck Institute for Astrophysics
Princeton University
University of Durham
University of California at Berkeley
Institute for Advanced Study, Department of Astrophysics
University of Oxford
Queen Mary, University of London [link]
St Andrews University [link]
University of Cambridge [link]
Cardiff University [link]
UK Dark Matter Collaboration [link]

Organisations

Particle Physics and Astronomy Research Council [link]
Institute of Physics (UK) [link]
Royal Astronomical Society [link]

Figures:

Sources:

Board on Physics and Astronomy, Connecting Quarks with the Cosmos: Eleven Science Questions for the New Century (2003) [link]
Horizon: Most of Our Universe is Missing BBC TV (broadcast 9 Feb. 2006) [link]
Pedro F. González-Díaz, "You need not be afraid of phantom energy", Physical Review D, 68, 021303 (R), [link]
Geoff Brumfiel, "Cosmology Gets Real," Nature 422, 108-110, 2003, [link]
J I Davies et al, "The Existence and Detection of optically dark galacies by 21cm surveys," Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 2005 [link]

At A Glance:
When:
11–20 years

Where:
Global

How Fast:
Unknown

Likelihood:
Medium-High

Impact:
Low

Controversy:
Low

Related Outlooks:

About this outlook: An outlook is an internally consistent, plausible view of the future based on the best expertise available. It is not a prediction of the future. The AT-A-GLANCE ratings suggest the scope, scale, and uncertainty associated with this outlook. Each outlook is also a working document, with contributors adding comments and edits to improve the forecast over time. Please see the revision history for earlier versions.

Category:	Science and Technology
Domain:	Physics
Keywords:	Theoretical physics - dark matter, dark energy, astrophysics, cosmology
Outlook:	Progress is likely to be made in understanding the dominance of dark matter and dark energy in our universe.
Summary Analysis:	Most of the mass of our universe is dark matter, the composition and origin of which is not currently known. The objects known to us (humans, oceans, planets, stars, galaxies, superclusters) comprise less than 4% of the total mass of the universe. While ordinary matter determines gravity in our immediate neighbourhood, dark matter controls the dynamic behaviour of large objects, such as galaxies and superclusters of galaxies. Related to this strange situation is a second mystery: the presence of an invisible dark energy separate from dark matter, the gravitational force of which is repulsive, causing our universe to expand at an accelerating rate. The presence of these three key components of our universe (ordinary matter, dark matter, and dark energy) is not explicable by any current insight or theory. Physicists speculate that dark matter and dark energy are somehow related to gravity itself. New work will continue to be done in this area, and new observations are likely to advance human understanding of this conundrum.

	Implications:	Improved ability to predict cosmic events Possible discovery of new states of matter Possible modification of general relativity
	Early Indicators:	Observations of the structure and dynamics of galaxies that have been found to be at odds with the distributions of galactic mass inferred from optical observations
	What to Watch:	Theoretical breakthroughs lead to more accurate inference from optical observations.
	Parallels/Precedents:
	Enablers/Drivers:	Continuation and expansion of work by optical and infrared observatories and high-energy particle detectors Continuing observation of radio emissions and cosmic background noise Advances in relativistic general relativity theory
	Leaders:	Institutions Max Planck Institute for Astrophysics Princeton University University of Durham University of California at Berkeley Institute for Advanced Study, Department of Astrophysics University of Oxford Queen Mary, University of London [link] St Andrews University [link] University of Cambridge [link] Cardiff University [link] UK Dark Matter Collaboration [link] Organisations Particle Physics and Astronomy Research Council [link] Institute of Physics (UK) [link] Royal Astronomical Society [link]
	Figures:
	Sources:	Board on Physics and Astronomy, Connecting Quarks with the Cosmos: Eleven Science Questions for the New Century (2003) [link] Horizon: Most of Our Universe is Missing BBC TV (broadcast 9 Feb. 2006) [link] Pedro F. González-Díaz, "You need not be afraid of phantom energy", Physical Review D, 68, 021303 (R), [link] Geoff Brumfiel, "Cosmology Gets Real," Nature 422, 108-110, 2003, [link] J I Davies et al, "The Existence and Detection of optically dark galacies by 21cm surveys," Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 2005 [link]

At A Glance:	When:	11–20 years
	Where:	Global
	How Fast:	Unknown
	Likelihood:	Medium-High
	Impact:	Low
	Controversy:	Low